With the Braves leading 2-1 in the World Series, is this a must-win game for the Astros in Game 5 of the World Series? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us!
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, October 30, 2021 – 08:09 PM EDT at Truist Park
● Astros: Zack Greinke (11-6 4.16 ERA)
● Braves: Bullpen Game
The Braves will have to use a bullpen game for Game 4 of the World Series. After starting the series up 2-1, the Braves can relax a bit knowing that even if the bullpen game struggles tonight, the series will be tied. However, on the other hand, a win tonight from the Braves would give them three chances to clinch the World Series in Games 5, 6, and 7.
At this time, we don’t know who the Braves will start. They’ll likely open with Jesse Chavez and go on from there. The Braves shut down the Astros last night, winning 2-0 with five no-hit innings from Ian Anderson. Against righties, the Astros lineup has a .190 ISO and wOBA of .319. Against lefties, the Astros lineup has a .167 ISO and wOBA of .355.
It’s likely that the Braves will try to pitch more righties in this game, which is obvious as there are more righties in the bullpen for the Braves, to begin with. Meanwhile, the Astros have selected Zack Greinke to take the mound for Game 4. Greinke is a veteran that has pitched in plenty of big games before. However, he’s past his prime and has looked pretty poor throughout the season, especially against righties.
In 413 plate appearances against righties this season, Greinke has allowed a .349 wOBA and ISO of .225. In the last 30 days, he’s got an xFIP of 4.41 with 16.7 percent strikeouts and 12.5 percent walks.
The right-hander is capable of inducing a high amount of grounders but the Braves lineup is either hitting line drives or striking out. Greinke isn’t a high strikeout guy, meaning the Braves might be able to hit plenty of line drives against Greinke.
Joc Pederson, if he plays, already has two home runs against Greinke. Eddie Rosario and Travis d’Arnaud also have home runs against the veteran. Austin Riley, another big right-handed bat has a .241 ISO against righties and has plenty of potential against Greinke, despite never facing him for his career.
I’m liking the Braves again for Game 4. I’ve taken them in all three games this series and have come out with a profit so far. The Braves roster has gone 31-for-118 with a .266 average and OPS of .738. Those numbers are solid enough to take notice of. Interestingly enough, Greinke has just three walks against all of these Braves bats.
The Braves might be aggressive again tonight. They’ve always been boom or bust in Atlanta. They’re either going to hit line drives with pop or strikeout. Greinke just doesn’t have that strikeout stuff anymore. Take the Braves at home for your MLB pick.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.