Astros vs. Red Sox Free MLB Picks and Preview

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Xander Bogaerts #2 of the Boston Red Sox connects on a two-run home run against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)

Tonight, it’s a rubber match between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros. After the Red Sox won Game 1 of the series, the Houston Astros dominated in the second game to tie the three-game series. Which team can you trust tonight?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks! Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s matchup between the Astros and Red Sox.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox

Wednesday, May 18, 2022 – 06:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park

MLB Series Recap

After the Red Sox picked up the first game of the series, the Houston Astros went on a rampage in the second game to even the series at one.

The Astros are currently 24-13 on the season and are quickly becoming one of the best offenses in baseball after slugging five homers in one inning against Nathan Eovaldi last night.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are just 14-22 on the season and quickly falling out of contention. There are plenty of baseballs left to be played but if you’re the Red Sox, you can’t be happy with where things are, at this very moment.

Who Pitches For the Red Sox Today?

The Boston Red Sox will pitch Nick Pivetta, who has a 1-4 record with a 5.08 ERA. Pivetta didn’t have the best start to the season, but he’s adapted well, allowing just one run in his last 13 innings pitched.

In the last 30 days, Pivetta has had a 4.59 xFIP with 24.5% strikeouts. He’s still giving up 26% of line drives and earning just 34.2% of ground balls. However, he’s limited ISO power numbers and wOBA numbers in the last 30 days to above-average numbers.

Who Pitches For the Astros Today?

Meanwhile, Luis Garcia is going to man the mound for the Astros. He’s also allowed just one earned run in his last two starts. Garcia has struck out nine batters in two straight games and is earning 30.8% strikeouts in the last 30 days.

Garcia is giving up a little bit of power to righties, with an ISO of .224 in his last 63 plate appearances against righties, but other than that, he’s been terrific.

Red Sox Lineup Analysis

  • The Red Sox aren’t dominating righties this season.
  • The projected lineup has an ISO of .127 with a wOBA of .302.
  • Only Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez have high ISO numbers along with high wOBA numbers.
  • Xander Bogaerts, however, has a .413 wOBA but has been inconsistent with power against righties in the last 30 days.

Astros Lineup Analysis

  • The Astros have a .212 ISO with a .335 wOBA.
  • This team is getting hot offensively and still earning nearly 22% of line drives while hitting only 37.6% of ground balls using the projected lineup in the last 30 days.
  • The Astros have only struck out 20.2% of the time in the last 30 days against righties and earn 11.2% walks in that same time frame.

Astros vs. Red Sox: Game Prediction

Garcia has been elite this season and has earned 18 strikeouts in his last two starts. With the way things are going for the Red Sox, it’s likely going to be hard for them to score runs.

However, Pivetta has gained some momentum too and could be the guy to get the Astros to finally slow down on the offensive end.

Last night, Nathan Eovaldi couldn’t get the job done. So it’s hard to trust Pivetta if Eovaldi couldn’t do it.

Ultimately, the Astros are still the better offense with so much more potential in comparison to the Red Sox. The Astros have tons of power and while Pivetta hasn’t been giving up too much power this season, he has in the past.

Houston will have many balls in the air as Pivetta also isn’t a ground ball pitcher. This game is likely going to be lower scoring but the Astros should eventually hold on with more potential in their lineup to do big things.

MLB Betting Pick

It’s hard to trust an Under after watching an absolute outburst between the Astros last night. But with Luis Garcia and Nick Pivetta on the mound, I’m going to ride the momentum train. Both of these pitchers have exceeded expectations in May and that should continue on into this game.

The Astros just used up all their offense last night. It’s going to be much quieter tonight.

So let’s roll with the Under 9. We’re used to seeing 6.5 and 7 numbers. Now we’re getting a 9 between two quality pitchers in May.

So for your MLB picks, let’s go with the Under 9 between the Red Sox and Astros.

MLB Pick: Under 9 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 9 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.