Editor’s Note: After Game 3 was postponed yesterday, we have updated this article following a pitching change.
Yesterday’s Game 3 in Philadelphia was postponed to today. That postponement has shifted the schedule by a day. Games 4 and 5 will be on Wednesday and Thursday, with Game 6 and Game 7 back in Houston on Saturday and Sunday (if necessary).
The postponement also came with a pitching change on the Phillies’ side, but how does this affect our original pick?
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, November 1, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Ranger Suarez Gets Call for Phillies
Before the postponement, Noah Syndergaard was going to get the call. Instead, he’ll pitch on Thursday in Game 5. It’ll be Ranger Suarez getting the ball in Game 3.
He’s a left-handed pitcher with an xFIP of 4.28 over the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 18.3% of batters and has walked 11.7% of batters over the same time frame. Suarez won’t earn a high rate of ground balls but has limited line drives well during the last month.
Still, lefties have hit a .465 wOBA and ISSO of .313 against Suarez over his last 18 batters from the left side. Meanwhile, righties have hit a .336 wOBA and ISO of .306 over the last 30 days against Suarez. With the projected order, the Astros are hitting a .201 ISO and wOBA of .369 against lefties over the last 30 days.
Astros' Batters Against Suarez
Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Martin Maldonado have hit solid ISO numbers against lefties over the last 30 days. Yuli Gurriel and Chas McCormick also have high wOBA numbers along with the entire team but Alex Bregman and Aledmys Diaz. Only Bregman and Diaz have struggled against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days.
The Astros should provide plenty of offense in this game with Suarez on the mound. Also, Suarez pitched earlier in the World Series out of the bullpen. He’s going to be able to go 5 innings but probably won’t go deeper than that. And looking at the stats, he might not even make it to 5 innings because of the lineup he has to face.
Game 3 Prediction and Pick
Suarez has had success in the postseason, but he’s struggled over the last 30 days against both sides of the plate. The Astros typically have seven righties in their lineup. They match up so much better against lefties than righties. The Phillies starting Suarez over Syndergaard in Game 5 is a bit perplexing.
In Game 3 yesterday, I liked the Phillies to earn a win. Now with Suarez on the mound, I’m not so sure. I like the Phillies to score some runs but also think the Astros should have plenty of success offensively in Game 3 as well.
Therefore, I’m taking the Over in this game as the main play. If I had to choose a winning side, I like the Astros a bit more. But again, I’m much more confident that we’ll see many runs against both teams’ third-best pitchers.
Score Prediction: Astros 6, Phillies 4
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-120) at BetOnline
Editor's Note: Game 3 of the World Series was postponed due to rain, according to MLB. The game will now be played on Tuesday, November 1st at 08:03 PM EDT.
The Houston Astros will travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies in Game 3 of the World Series.
The series is tied up at one. Philadelphia could earn three straight wins at home and win it all. Will the Astros win Game 3 to prevent that from happening?
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, October 30, 2022 - 08:03 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
The Houston Astros tied the World Series at one with a 5-2 victory over the Phillies on Saturday. Now, the series moves to Philadelphia with Game 3 on Monday. Games 4 and 5 will follow on Tuesday and Wednesday. If necessary, the teams will fly back to Houston for Games 6 and 7 on Friday and Saturday.
The Astros have only lost one game in the postseason. That was to the Phillies in Game 1 of the World Series. Meanwhile, the Phillies have been a hard out all postseason and used their last three-game homestand to defeat the San Diego Padres in the NLCS.
Lance McCullers Will Start for Astros
Lance McCullers will take the hill for the Astros in Game 3 of the World Series. He’s holding a 2.45 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out 26.1% of batters in that time frame. He’s limited walks to 5.8% and has allowed a BABIP of .333 despite having a 62.5% ground ball percentage.
McCullers has limited line drives to 12.5%, however, he’s allowed 50% of hard contact in the last month.
Lefties have hit a .400 wOBA and ISO of .208 against the right-hander over the last month. On the other hand, righties have struggled, hitting a .207 wOBA with an ISO of .025.
Phillies Producing Against Righties
The Phillies are getting very good production out of the top of their lineup against righties. Lefties like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper could have an edge against McCullers at home. They’ve both been scorching hot, along with Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto.
Again, McCullers has struggled way more against lefties, leading me to believe that Schwarber and Harper could have big games.
Noah Syndergaard Gets Call for Phillies
Noah Syndergaard will make his first World Series start of the year. He’s holding a 3.47 xFIP over the last 30 days but has only struck out 17.1% of batters. The right-hander has walked 7.3% of batters but has kept a BABIP of .133 thanks to 75% of ground balls over the last month.
Syndergaard has limited wOBA and ISO to both sides in the previous 30 days and hasn’t allowed a single-line drive in the last month. The Phillies had pitched Bailey Falter ahead of Syndergaard in the NLCS. They're not making that mistake again.
Astros' Lefties Struggling
Against righties, the Astros have had spotty production. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, and Chas McCormick have had consistent success.
But Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez seem to be struggling as of late and are the only two lefties in the lineup for the Astros.
On paper, the Astros have more power while the Phillies will likely string together multiple hits to score runs. But Syndergaard hasn’t allowed many extra-base hits and continues to induce ground balls instead of giving up line drives.
Game 3 Prediction and Picks
McCullers has really struggled against left-handed hitting over the last 30 days. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are two of the best left-handed hitters in the MLB. Those two have destroyed righties during the postseason and should have success against McCullers on Monday.
Meanwhile, it's true that Syndergaard might not have the stuff that he used to. His velocity and movement might not be as good as when he was a Met but his resurgence has been because of a high ground ball rate. The Astros are going to put the ball in play.
The Phillies just need to field well and they have, so far, when Syndergaard is on the mound. The Phillies were inconsistent in the field at the start of the year but, in the postseason, they've been on their A-game.
I’m going to back the Phillies at home going up against McCullers. The Phillies have a clear advantage with their lefties, which includes not just Schwarber and Harper, but Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh.
Plus, with the way that these first two games went, I’m also going to take the Over. We no longer have Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, and Framber Valdez on the mound. Instead, we’ve got the third-best pitcher on both sides. Also, we already saw the over hit in Game 1 and got a push in the other.
Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Astros 4
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.