The Philadelphia Phillies will look to add another win over the Houston Astros in Game 4 of the World Series. With the Phillies up two games to one, can Philadelphia put pressure on Houston with a win tonight?
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, November 2, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
The World Series so Far
The Philadelphia Phillies are now two wins away from winning the World Series. The Phillies can end up winning the World Series in Philadelphia if they’re able to win the next two games against Houston.
However, if the Astros earn just one win in the next two games, they’ll be heading back home for Games 6 and 7, if necessary.
The Phillies have been very strategic in the postseason and it’s worked. After Ranger Suarez pitched five scoreless innings last night, the Phillies can now go back to Aaron Nola in Game 4, to set up a Game 5 with Noah Syndergaard on the mound.
Who Starts for the Astros Today?
Cristian Javier will get the start for the Astros. Javier has had an xFIP of 2.47 in the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 29.2% of batters over that time frame.
However, Javier has walked 12.5% of batters over his last 24 plate appearances. He’s still holding a BABIP of .077 but has allowed a .286 ISO to his last 16 righties faced.
In the postseason, Javier has a 1.35 ERA. He’s normally a pitcher with his strikeouts and high walks. He’s usually almost unhittable but sometimes he gets himself into trouble with his walks.
Phillies' Batters Against Suarez
The Phillies are hitting a .225 ISO and wOBA of .313 over their last 30 days against righties using the projected lineup. However, Philadelphia only hit 12.2% of line drives in that time frame against righties and has struck out 24.6% of the time.
But the Phillies are still patient at the plate, earning 9.1% of walks as a lineup against righties over the last month.
The top of the order has also been terrific, with Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, and Bryce Harper all hitting a high ISO and wOBA against righties over the last 30 days.
But as I mentioned above, Javier has been worse against righties, allowing a high ISO to righties. Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto could be the two premier hitters in tonight’s lineup.
Who Starts for the Phillies Today?
Aaron Nola gets the call for the Phillies. Nola couldn’t even go 5 innings against the Astros in Game 1 of the World Series. He allowed 5 runs on 6 hits with 2 walks, 2 home runs, and 5 strikeouts. Somehow, the Phillies rallied back to save Nola and won 6-5 in that game.
Nola has allowed 30.8% of line drives when balls are hit into play and he’s only induced 30.8% of ground balls. He’s still throwing a high strikeout rate and has limited walks, but lefties have a .353 wOBA and ISO of .278 over the last 30 days against Nola.
In Game 1, Kyle Tucker knocked 2 home runs against Nola. He’s hitting a .243 ISO against righties over the last 30 days and has hit 28.6% of line drives against righties in that same time frame.
Astros' Batters Against Nola
The Astros have a weaker lineup in total, hitting a .166 ISO and wOBA of .294 against righties. However, they've struck out fewer times than the Phillies and have hit 24% of line drives.
Nola really only struggled against Kyle Tucker in Game 1. It just resulted in 5 runs. If Nola can escape damage against Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, he’ll likely put together a quality outing of 6 innings. After this game, Nola would be expected to pitch in Game 7 for the Phillies if needed.
Anyway, the Astros have a couple righties that have hit other righties well recently. Jeremy Pena has a .298 ISO and wOBA of .370 against his last 49 righties. Alex Bregman also has a .300 ISO with a wOBA of .396 against his last 44 righties.
But as I mentioned earlier, Nola has been much better against righties. He’s struggled against lefties more and he’ll only have to face two lefties in the Houston lineup.
World Series Game 4: Pick and Prediction
I’m sticking with the Phillies in Game 4. The Phillies have more potential against Javier. Javier could get himself into trouble with a couple of walks and a blast.
The Phillies have been more patient and will have their number-one starter while the Astros will pitch their fourth-best starter.
Javier’s obviously the best number-four starter in the MLB, but Nola is still the better pitcher with a much longer track record of success.
Take the Phillies for your MLB picks.
Score Prediction: Phillies 4, Astros 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) at BetOnline
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