AL Wild Card Game 2 Best Bets: Rays vs. Guardians and Mariners vs. Blue Jays

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Matt Chapman #26 of the Toronto Blue Jays waves to the crowd prior to Game One of the AL Wild Card series against the Seattle Mariners. Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images/AFP

There are many intriguing matchups for today’s MLB NL Wild Card slate. Find out where I see value below.

I gave out two of my favorite bets for the day for the Rays vs. Guardians and Mariners vs. Blue Jays games, so let’s get into it!

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians

Saturday, October 08, 2022 – 12:07 PM EDT at Progressive Field

Rays' Starter

The Tampa Bay Rays will look to stay alive in the AL Wild Card, trailing the Cleveland Guardians 1-0 in a best-of-three series.

Tyler Glasnow will get the start for the Rays. He returned from the injured list in September and will already be asked to pitch in a huge spot. Since returning from the injured list, Glasnow has a 3.18 xFIP with 38.5% of strikeouts. He’s only faced 26 batters this season but has limited line drives to 14.3% and has looked good.

You can’t expect Glasnow to go deep in this game. But if he can give you five innings of shutout baseball and allow the bullpen to shut the game down for the rest of the night, the Rays will be in a great spot. The Guardians have the better-performing lineup. Cleveland is hitting a .154 ISO with a wOBA of .326. They’ve also struck out just 15.6% of the time in the last 30 days against righties.

But Glasnow’s one of the aces in the game. He’s fully recovered and won’t be fatigued in the innings that he pitches.

Guardians' Starter

Meanwhile, it’ll be Tristan McKenzie on the mound for the Guardians. He’s developed a lot this season for the Guardians. Recently, he’s holding a 3.51 xFIP with 28.3% of strikeouts and 2.4% of walks. He’s also limited line drives to 14.8%.

Maybe he’s allowed some power to lefties over the last 30 days, but the only lefty in the lineup that has consistent power for the Rays is Ji-Man Choi. Choi has an ISO of .244, but no other player has an ISO above .141 in the last 30 days against righties. The Rays have hit a .123 ISO and wOBA of .292 over the last 30 days with 23.6% of strikeouts.

Rays vs. Guardians: Our Best Bet

The Rays have hit 22.7% of line drives when putting the ball in play, but teams haven’t hit McKenzie with line drives and have struck out way more than 23.6% of the time. With that said, for this MLB pick, the under is the play in this game.

MLB Pick: Under 6 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 6 (-120)
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Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Saturday, October 08, 2022 - 04:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre

Mariners' Starter

Robbie Ray will take on his former team in the AL Wild Card to help the Mariners escape Toronto with an AL Wild Card Series win. But not so fast.

Ray is a left-handed pitcher taking on an entire lineup of righties for the Blue Jays. Ray has had a 5.12 xFIP over the last 30 days. However, he’s still earning 23.6% of strikeouts and 7.3% of walks. The lefty has kept line drives down but is giving up nearly 49% of fly balls.

Against his last 101 righties, Ray has allowed a .380 wOBA and ISO of .277. Those are extremely high numbers, and now he’s going to have to face a full lineup of righties that can do damage.

The Blue Jays have hit a .187 ISO and wOBA of .328 in the last 30 days against lefties. They’ve also hit over 19% of line drive and have struck out 22% of the time while walking 10.5% of the time against lefties.

This is a good matchup for the Blue Jays, who need a win to play another game tomorrow.

Blue Jays' Starter

On the other hand, Kevin Gausman will take the hill for Toronto. He has a 3.04 xFIP in the last 30 days with 30.2% of strikeouts and 4.3% of walks. Gausman has been tremendous recently, keeping fly balls down, but has allowed a wOBA of .346 to righties with an ISO of .230.

Gausman’s pitched well against lefties but has struggled a little bit against righties. The Seattle lineup will have more lefties than righties in the lineup. Still, the Mariners are hitting a .241 ISO and wOBA of .344 over the last 30 days against righties.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays: Our Best Bet

At the end of the day, Gausman’s matchup against Seattle still looks better in comparison to Ray’s matchup against the Blue Jays, since he’ll have to face a full lineup of righties, where he’s struggled.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-165) at BetOnline

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Blue Jays ML (-165)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.