The Braves couldn’t clinch the World Series in Game 5, at home. With the way things are lining up in Game 6, do the Braves have a chance to clinch the World Series tonight? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us for this one!
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, November 2, 2021 – 08:09 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
● Braves: Max Fried (14-,7, 3.04 ERA)
● Astros: Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA)
It’s been an absolute grind this season in the MLB. I thought I’d be done writing MLB previews in October, but here we are, still betting on the MLB in November. The Braves got out to a 4-0 lead against the Astros in Game 5, leading the series 3-1. However, the Braves couldn’t hold on and the Astros ended up winning 9-5 to force Game 6 in the World Series.
With that Astros win, the Braves lead the World Series 3-2, but now the Astros will get to play the final two games at home (if necessary). If the Braves win tonight, they’ll clinch the World Series and give Atlanta their first World Series since 1995. If the Astros win, Game 7 will be a win-or-go-home scenario for both teams.
The Astros will rely on rookie right-hander Luis Garcia to help them get to a Game 7. Garcia has a 7.62 ERA in the postseason through 13 innings of work. He’s allowed one hit and 11 runs with 11 walks and 18 strikeouts. Garcia won’t induce a heavy amount of grounders but will allow hard contact and a solid amount of line drives. Meanwhile, the Braves are either striking out against righties or hitting lasers.
Atlanta’s lineup is hitting 43 percent line drives in the last 30 days against righties while hitting just 25.7 percent ground balls in that same time frame. However, the Braves lineup is also striking out 27.8 percent of the time against righties and sometimes, that will kill rallies. With Garcia walking 11 batters in 13 innings, it’s safe to assume Garcia will walk a solid amount of batters in this one.
He walked four batters in 3.2 innings against the Braves in his first start against them last week. A couple of walks and a mistake will put multiple runs on the board for the Braves and after seeing his funky delivery, the Braves should be better off against him the second time around.
Meanwhile, Max Fried has struggled in his last two starts and will take the mound for the Braves tonight. Fried has allowed 11 runs in his last 9.2 innings in the postseason but has still walked just three batters in his 21.2 innings pitched in the postseason this year. In Fried’s first start against the Astros, he allowed seven hits and six runs in five innings of work. However, he struck out six, walked one and induced ten ground balls to six fly balls.
He was a bit unlucky in this start. If he puts up those numbers again tonight, the results will be a bit different. He’s looked much better than Garcia in his starts.
The Braves are going to expect a quality start out of Fried. He hasn’t achieved one in his last two starts but prior to those two games, he had 15 straight games with a quality start. There’s no better time for Fried to throw another quality start and if he’s able to induce 10 ground balls and strike out six in this start, things are going to be a bit different.
The Braves lineup will provide against Garcia this time around and if the approach is to stay patient, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to make things happen. Take the Braves to finish off the series tonight, on the road, for your MLB pick.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.