Today’s Top Futures Bets

Key Facts

• The Denver Nuggets will have a home-court advantage in the NBA finals.

• The Nuggets have been an excellent team all year and did not just up raise their level of play for the playoffs.

• The Denver Nuggets will have the best player on the court in Nikola Jokic in a potential matchup with the Miami Heat.

The Denver Nuggets came into this postseason unheralded because of the hot play of the Los Angeles Lakers and the enticing potential of the Phoenix Suns. Even though they had the best record in the NBA, not many NBA observers picked the Nuggets to make the NBA Finals.

The Nuggets Are Juggernauts at Home

The Denver Nuggets have yet to lose a home game in this playoffs. The Nuggets also have the best home record in the NBA during the regular season. This makes home-court advantage crucial for the Nuggets.

The home court should be a bigger edge than usual because of Denver’s altitude and opposing teams’ problems making the acclimation to the conditions.

Miami Has Had a Much Easier Road to the Finals

Much has been made of the Miami Heat Cinderella run to the Finals yet the Heat have had plenty of breaks. In the first round, a back injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo limited his effectiveness and allowed the Heat to easily defeat the Milwaukee Bucks.

In the second round, they played a New York Knicks team with plenty of flaws. This current version of the Boston Celtics is not coached very well and did not play up to their potential.

So, while Heat fans should be excited that they have experienced success, it is nothing like the Nuggets defeating the Lakers and Suns, who feature all-time greats, LeBron James and Kevin Durant.

Even though the Nuggets are the favorites in this scenario, there is still value in Denver to win the NBA Finals.

The Pick

Denver Nuggets To Win NBA Title -200 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently dominated the AFC West, with the last time another team winning the division dating back to 2015.
• Head coach Andy Reid’s innovative game plans and the talented pieces provided to him have contributed to the Chiefs’ success, making them a formidable force in big games.
• The lack of continuity and ongoing struggles of other AFC West franchises, such as San Diego, Denver, and Las Vegas, further solidify the Chiefs’ position as the clear favorite to win the division.

Like death and taxes, the Kansas City Chiefs have a stranglehold on the AFC West. Unless Patrick Mahomes is injured and cannot play or every other Chiefs starter is injured, Kansas City is set to win another AFC West crown

The Last Time Someone Else Won the AFC West?

To put this question in proper context, the last time someone other than the red-clad Chiefs won was when – Star Wars: The Force Awakens movie came out and that was the Denver Broncos in 2015.

This stretch is made all the more remarkable by the fact Andy Reid and the front office have rebuilt this squad on the run and last year’s K.C. crew was among the youngest teams in the league.

Reid and Mahomes Make It Work

Though Reid has always been a brilliant offensive coach, his mindset seemed to change once he got to Kansas City after all the success he enjoyed in Philadelphia.

He was never known for winning big games in Philly and was often too conservative. That’s not the case with the Chiefs as he weekly has the most innovative game plans and is supplied the pieces to make them work.

Bumbling AFC West Franchises

If you look at San Diego, Denver, and Las Vegas, one is hard-pressed to see the continuity in any of those teams as annually they are trying to find the right coach and personnel and come up short in both facets.

This is the easiest choice of all the divisions to pick a winner, much like when Tom Brady and Bill Belichick dominated the AFC East for years.

The Pick

Chiefs to Win AFC West -150 at BetOnline

Does anyone know what is going on with this wild 2023 NFL draft? At this rate, Hendon Hooker will be the No. 1 pick. The latest rumor is Houston will not take a quarterback at No. 2. Either way, it does not seem that the Texans and Colts will come out of this draft with a quarterback who is ready to be a playoff starter in the 2023 season.

That leaves it down to Jacksonville and Tennessee for the second year in a row. The Titans collapsed after a 7-3 start with seven straight losses, including a Week 18 loss to Jacksonville that they may have won if Ryan Tannehill was healthy.

But things have been declining with the Tannehill and Derrick Henry-led offense, and the Jaguars have the best quarterback situation with Trevor Lawrence. They even added to his weapons with the Calvin Ridley trade at wide receiver to go along with Christian Kirk, who played very well.

The Jaguars had three comeback wins of 17-plus points after November last year after having one such game in franchise history. This might scream regression to the mean after the team went from 2-6 to 9-8, but they are also young, still developing, and beat almost everyone besides the Chiefs down the stretch. Remember, Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl in his second season with the Eagles in 2017.

This is the team to beat in the AFC South for now until the other teams can sort out the quarterback position.

The Pick

AFC South Winner – Jacksonville Jaguars (-150) at Bovada

Key Facts

• The Atlantic Coast Conference is abandoning the division format for 2023. 
• Florida State doesn’t have to play Clemson or North Carolina during the regular season. 
• Florida State has this year’s No. 2-ranked transfer class at ESPN. 

Taming the Tigers 

The Clemson Tigers were the best team in the ACC the past eight years or so, but Florida State finally overtook them in 2022 – at least on paper, where they posted a plus-14.77 according to the Simple Rating System at Sports Reference. Clemson was second at plus-13.59 SRS despite winning one more game at 11-3. 

Take It Easy 

Florida State doesn’t even have to worry about facing Clemson this year; the Tigers aren’t on the schedule, and neither are the North Carolina Tar Heels. FSU will have a considerably easier schedule than both those teams, and since the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions are being scrapped this year, Mike Norvell’s crew can win the ACC title without ever having to face Clemson or North Carolina. 

One More Shot at Glory 

While the situation on the ground will be easier for Florida State than it was last year, they’ll be even more prepared to take advantage after bringing back most of their core talent from 2022. That includes QB Jordan Travis and DE Jared Verse. 

On top of that, Norvell has drawn an incredible amount of talent to Tallahassee via the transfer window. CB Fentrell Cypress II is the highest-rated newcomer; the slew of offensive linemen they added around Travis may prove even more important. 

The Pick 

Florida State to Win ACC +160 at BetOnline

With Alabama quarterback Bryce Young moving to -1500 odds at some sportsbooks for the No. 1 pick, it is looking like he will be on the Carolina Panthers with new coach Frank Reich.

This was the worst division in football, but it lost Tom Brady, it gained Derek Carr, and it still has the Atlanta Falcons, a franchise known for inventing new ways to lose. The Panthers were a game away from winning the division last year, but they should be upgrading at coach with Reich, who knows how to cater the offense to any style of a quarterback after his work in Indianapolis.

Young also is personally my top quarterback prospect in this class. He looks like someone who could have the mobility and creative improvising skills of a young Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson. Someone who will have a pass-first mentality like those players rather than a run-first one like Michael Vick or Justin Fields.

The Panthers did trade away D.J. Moore to Chicago to help get the No. 1 pick, but there is something to build around here with Young.

The Panthers also have a solid foundation for running the ball, an offensive line that is not terrible, a capable defense, and could use some positive regression after losing 50 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter since 2018. This team may only need to go 9-8 to win this division, and the likely selection of Young makes this an ideal pick for our best futures bet.

The Pick

NFC South Winner – Carolina Panthers (+300) at BetOnline

The biggest truth we know about the NFL MVP award is that it usually goes to a quarterback with great stats on a high-seeded team. Of the 33 times a quarterback went on to win MVP since 1981, we observed:

• 25-of-33 (75.8%) played for a No. 1 seed.
• 29-of-33 (87.9%) were on a team with 12-plus wins.
• 29-of-33 (87.9%) ranked in the top three in passing value (DYAR) at Football Outsiders.

You also need a compelling narrative to put the finishing touches on your MVP case. Last year, Patrick Mahomes won MVP because he had the Chiefs with the top seed and No. 1 offense despite losing Tyreek Hill. But voters may be fatigued by Mahomes’ greatness.

Not that Aaron Rodgers, a four-time MVP, is a breath of fresh air, but he is if he can play at a high level with the Jets, a franchise known for awful quarterbacks. If the Jets beat out favored Buffalo to win the AFC East and Rodgers has stats on par with his 2020-21 seasons, then he should be a strong MVP choice.

No quarterback has won MVP in his first season with a team since Earl Morrall (1968 Colts) but Rodgers has the talent around him to do it after the Jets crushed their 2022 draft by adding Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. There could be value in betting on him now before the trade to the Jets is official as he will likely see an odds boost when that goes official.

The Pick

2023 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (+1500) at Bovada

Key Facts

• Jeff Sagarin rated Ohio State (No. 3 overall) higher than Michigan (No. 5) last year.
• The Buckeyes have an elite offense despite the departure of quarterback C.J. Stroud.
• Michigan and Penn State will provide stiff competition.

Ohio Over Everything

The Michigan Wolverines may be the reigning and defending Big Ten champions, but Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today had the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) ranked higher than Michigan using his advanced metrics, putting Ohio State third overall in the FBS and the Wolverines fifth. Football Outsiders also preferred OSU (No. 3) to UM (No. 4) using their F+ Ratings.

The System Works

The Buckeyes are losing a great quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who was drafted second overall by the Houston Texans earlier this month. But this is a program that has churned out one elite quarterback after another.

Justin Fields did great things for head coach Ryan Day in his two years before Stroud took over; Kyle McCord (or maybe Devin Brown) is next up in Columbus, and he’ll be surrounded by nearly every star player from last year’s CFP squad, including Marvin Harrison Jr. at wideout.

Nothing Comes Easy

Ohio State won’t have a clear path to the Big Ten title. Michigan (+180) and Penn State (+600) both look very strong coming out of the spring session, and the Buckeyes close out the regular season in Ann Arbor this year – but they do get to face the Nittany Lions at home.

The Pick

Ohio State to Win Big Ten Championship +160 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Hurts finished No. 2 in MVP voting and will have most of his offensive teammates from last year returning.
• The Eagles led the NFL with 70 sacks and drafted more pass-rushing talent in the first round with Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith from Georgia.

Stop the NFC East Parity

No one has been able to repeat as NFC East champions since the Eagles had a 4-year run in 2001-04. The Eagles have a great shot to do that after cruising to an 8-0 start last year.

The main competition remains Dallas in the division, and the teams split their series with the winner beating the other’s backup quarterback. But the Eagles had a more dynamic offense and a defense that did not rely as much on takeaways as Dallas.

Talent Over Coaches

The Eagles lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs, but Nick Sirianni has reloaded his staff with trustworthy assistants. They are also retaining most of the talent that got them to the Super Bowl last year. They have enough veterans and developed players on both sides of the ball to not skip a beat without those coordinators.

Trench Warfare

Few teams have done as well as the Eagles in building the trenches on both sides of the ball. They continue to invest in their lines by adding two talented pass rushers from Georgia. They had one of the best offensive lines last year, and the veteran core is intact with Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce.

The Pick

Philadelphia Eagles NFC East Winner +100 at Bovada

Editor’s Note: The author still finds value on the Rays up to odds of -180.

Key Facts

• Tampa Bay’s impressive 13-0 start to the season puts them in rare company, with only two teams since 1900 achieving this feat, showcasing their exceptional performance.
• The Rays’ dominant +71 run differential highlights their ability to outscore and outplay their opponents consistently, surpassing the comeback victories of previous teams with similar records.
• Tampa Bay’s well-rounded roster excels both offensively and defensively, with their offense leading in key statistical categories and their pitching staff performing at a high level, making them a formidable team to beat.

Unexpectedly, Tampa Bay came roaring out of the gate winning their first 13 games of the season. Because few like to give credit where credit is due, naysayers were whining about the Rays “playing weak competition”. That of course doesn’t hold up because only two teams going back to 1900 had started 13-0 and suffice more than a few clubs started with lesser competition and did not come close to what Tampa Bay accomplished.

• Rays +71 Run Differential

What makes what Tampa Bay did so impressive is they dominated teams with a +71 run differential. Both Atlanta (1982) and Milwaukee (1987) had some crazy come-from-behind wins that were unimaginable when they went 13-0.

Rays Will Be a Devil of Team to Beat (Intentional Play On Words)

Across the board, the Rays’ offense has been the best in baseball and their pitching is stifling. That is what sets them apart, in hitting stats, almost anything you want to follow from runs, batting average to wOBA, Tampa Bay is first or second. The same is also true of the entire pitching staff, be it starters or relievers. And if you look at the age of manager Kevin Cash’s roster, his players are in or entering their prime years.

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays still have solid clubs, but just like last year, both have flaws that are very similar to last year.

For our money, Tampa Bay is built to win now and they still have a couple of starting pitchers like Tyler Glasnow coming back soon. Other teams might have more individual talent, but how this roster has been assembled is a thing of beauty.

The Pick

Tampa Bay Rays To Win the 2023 AL East (+135) at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Bengals continue to upgrade roster, specifically addressing the offensive line, which improves pass protection for Joe Burrow and enhances the running game.
• Cincinnati’s defense is steadily improving, ranking 6th in fewest points allowed last season, and efforts to strengthen the pass rush can significantly impact their performance.
• Joe Burrow’s composure and leadership have proven effective, and the team has already defeated strong opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship

The Cincinnati Bengals went to the Super Bowl two years ago and to two straight AFC title games. They could very well be headed back this upcoming season. Here is why.

Bengals Continue to Upgrade Roster

Two years ago, Cincinnati got to the Super Bowl not because of their offensive line, it was in spite of it. Last year they drafted players and made upgrades and while it was better in 2022, there is still room for improvement.

Signing Orlando Brown Jr. gives them that needed left tackle in pass protection for Joe Burrow and which will make the offensive line better. Ultimately, head coach Zac Taylor wants to run the ball with greater efficiency, which can make passing offense more lethal and that only happens with a better offensive line.

Cincinnati used most of its draft capital on defense and that will only help.

More Dominate Defense

With each passing season, the Bengals are improving on defense. Last season they were 6^th in fewest points allowed at 20.6 points a game. While coach Taylor liked the more physical style, Cincy was only 16^th in yards allowed. Part of the problem with their defense was ranking 29^th in sacks and it’s not lost on Taylor and his defensive staff Kansas City and Philadelphia were in last year’s Super Bowl and were 1^st and 2^nd in sacks.

That is why they went after playmakers DE Myles Murphy, looking to make negative plays. If the Bengals can upgrade the defense where it is at least Top 10 in the fewest yards allowed and have more sacks, they have something with their offense.

Joe Cool Is the Man

Joe Burrow is unflappable and his teammates feed off his confidence. If Cincinnati continues to improve, they’ve already beaten Kansas City once in an AFC championship contest. If the Bengals could get the Chiefs at their place, that might set them up to win a Super Bowl.

The Pick

Bengals to Win Super Bowl +1000 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• The possibility of a Nuggets vs. Heat matchup in the NBA Finals presents a good scenario for Denver, as they would have home-court advantage and the benefit of playing at high altitude.
• Denver’s size advantage with players like Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Bruce Brown presents a challenge for Miami’s star player Jimmy Butler, while the Heat lack significant size behind Bam Adebayo to handle Nikola Jokic effectively.
• Denver swept the regular-season series. 

Worst Ever?

Are we in the midst of the worst conference finals round in NBA history? If they both end in sweeps, the answer might be yes. No matter how early they do end, the NBA Finals will not start until June 1. No NBA team has ever rallied from a 3-0 series hole to win, which is a surprise. 

In that scenario, a guy could get hot and carry a team to four straight wins, but it hasn’t happened. In MLB and the NHL, it has. 

Possible Matchup

Denver beating Miami is -175 on the exact NBA Finals outcome at BetOnline, and that’s one of our picks for our futures. The Nuggets would have a home-court advantage and a big one playing at the altitude. 

The Heat don’t have much size behind Bam Adebayo to deal with Nikola Jokic in a possible Finals matchup.  

The Flip Side

On the flip side, Denver can throw big bodies like Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown at Heat star Jimmy Butler. The Nuggets won the regular-season series 2-0 with Jokic averaging 23.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists.  

Miami’s chances of upsetting Denver would improve if 20-point scorer Tyler Herro can return from an injury suffered in Game 1 of Round 1 vs. Milwaukee, but the 2022 NBA Sixth Man of the Year reportedly isn’t close yet.  

If we expect Denver to beat Miami at -175, let’s also grab the Nuggets to win outright.

The Pick

Nuggets to Win NBA Championship -200 at Bovada

Winning bets is not only about who you pick, it can also be about the money you save on making bad choices. That is the case with the Los Angeles Angels.

Poor Ownership Has Ruined the Angels

Ownership and organizations make winning teams. Owner Arte Moreno bought the Angels from Disney in 2002 and they immediately won a World Series. That was the high mark for the franchise and the Halos have not had a winning season since 2015.

It has been a parade of mismanagement through the years, with Moreno meddling with GMs, weak draft choices, and god-awful free agent signings like Josh Hamilton, C. J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, Justin Upton, and now Anthony Rendon.

Where Is the Bright Spot for 2023?

Despite having arguably the two best players in the sport and at worst the Top 6, in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, this club is not built for success. The cast around this twosome seems to be improved over past years, yet, if you break down the starting position outside of center fielder and DH, essentially the Angels rank no better than third in the vast majority of them even in their own division.

Moving over to the pitching staff, even with Ohtani, the starters rank in the 20s in the majors in most key metrics. The bullpen has decent numbers on the surface, however, they have blown about half their save chances to start the season and they have lost twice as many games as they have won.

Instead of betting on the Halos, give the money to charity, at least it’s a tax write-off.

The Pick

Los Angeles Angels to Win the AL West/No (+400) at Bovada

Key Facts

• The potential return of quarterback Brock Purdy and the improved throwing motion of Trey Lance provide optimism for the 49ers’ offense, which has the capability to excel in both the running and passing game.
• Despite a subpar performance in the NFC title game, San Francisco’s defense was the top-ranked unit in total defense and fewest points allowed. 
• Expectations are high for another strong defensive showing, making the 49ers a strong contender to win the NFC and reach the Super Bowl.

A QB That Plays 18 Games

One of these years, San Francisco will have a quarterback that can play an entire season. If that happened, they might just win a Super Bowl, or at least return to the big game.

Philadelphia was a juggernaut last year and even if Brock Purdy had not gotten hurt, it seemed the Eagles would have beaten the 49ers with how they pushed them around on defense.

Nonetheless, San Francisco’s window of opportunity has to start diminishing soon, and never having a healthy quarterback is wasting this opportunity with one of the best rosters in the NFL.

Proof In the Purdy?

Purdy is expected back by training camp and Trey Lance has worked with QB gurus to improve his throwing motion. Coach Kyle Shanahan remarked this spring in a private setting how much better and confident Lance is throwing the pigskin.

Whomever it is for San Francisco, given their offense and the potential it has running and throwing, a signal caller who played like Purdy did down the stretch gives the Niners a shot at playing in another Super Bowl out of the NFC.

Defense Not a Concern

Forgive San Francisco’s performance in the NFC title tilt. When Purdy went, so did the emotional juice from the 49ers. This was the top club in total defense that was also first in fewest points allowed. Expect another Top 5 year in both categories from this squad as they take the next step and reach the Super Bowl as NFC champs.

The Pick

49ers to Win NFC +400 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• The Georgia Bulldogs are the two-time and defending National Champions. 
• Georgia’s Class of 2023 ranks second overall at ESPN. 
• The Bulldogs have a new offensive coordinator in former QB Mike Bobo. 

Spring Is in the Air 

The Georgia Bulldogs shed a lot of talent during the offseason, but they gained a ton as well. Arguably the most important change is at offensive coordinator, where Mike Bobo, the former Georgia QB, takes over for Todd Monken. 

More obvious to bettors will be the change at quarterback itself. Stetson Bennett is now with the L.A.  Rams; Carson Beck outperformed Brock Vandagriff during the spring session, although either would likely be a place-holder until Dylan Raiola comes in for 2024. 

Defense Wins Championships 

It would definitely be premature to write off Georgia just because so many top defenders have left the program, most notably DL Jalen Carter and LB Nolan Smith. Edge rusher Mykel Williams is arguably the best of the remaining Bulldog defenders, but he’s hardly alone; linebackers Jamon Dumas-Johnson and Smael Mondon are dripping with talent, and fellow LB Raylen Wilson was their top recruit from an amazing Class of 2023. 

Future Shock 

It’s usually not recommended to pick the top favorites on the futures market, but the gap between Georgia and No. 2 Alabama (+550) is too wide to ignore. Kirby Smart has built one of the most impressive college football programs ever assembled, and leading recruits like Raiola are now choosing the Bulldogs over Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide. 

The Pick 

Georgia to Win National Championship +275 at Bovada