Tanko's MLB Plays 9/9/22

[Tanko]

We've been having a little luck in MLB lately.
Tuesday 3 Tm Parlay +318
Wednesday 3 Tm Parlay +298


Today I like Baltimore -117 BookMaker

Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 ET

Starting Pitching:
Voth (BAL) vs Bello (BOS). Both have been pitching well over the last month. The 5 starts from Voth 2.05 ERA and the 3 starts from Bello are 3.00 ERA over that time. In my opinion, Voth has faced better hitting teams.

Batting:
Both teams have been doing well with an edge to Boston over the last 7.
BOS WRC+ 115, OPS 0.762, AVG 0.263
BAL WRC+ 107, OPS 0.731, AVG 0.241
Last 3 games BAL rpg 4.33, BOS 2.33 rpg. I like seeing a +2 edge on this metric.

Relief Pitching
Baltimore has the edge here 3.35 ERA vs 4.41 ERA for Boston.

Misc:
Baltimore is a +16.5 units at home this season. The best in MLB and its not even close. 2nd is COL at +11. Boston is a -4 units on the road. The delta between BAL and BOS of 20 is huge.

BAL as home Favs typically win by 1.2 runs
BOS as road Dogs typically loses by 0.8 runs

Baltimore -117

GL today.

 

[BobbyFK]

Great write up as always! Good luck on the play Tanko

 

[Tanko]

I'm seeing Toronto with an edge over Texas. I don't like betting against Texas because they were performing well for several weeks but have fallen off significantly in the last 2 weeks.

Toronto -142

Starting Pitching:
Stripling (TOR) vs Dunning (TEX). Last 30 days ERA: 2.59 in 4 games for Stripling vs 5.92 in 5 games for Dunning. Toronto has 3-1 record in those starts vs Texas at 2-3 in the Dunning's starts.

Batting:
Recent batting.
. > TOR WRC+ 130, OPS 0.795, AVG 0.282
. > TEX WRC+ 48, OPS 0.512, AVG 0.180
Yeah, Texas has been really lacking at the plate of late. TEX is last in MLB avg while TOR is 4th during this period.

TOR 5.5 rpg over last 3.
TEX 2.5 rpg over last 3.
Again, I like seeing a delta of at least 2 and we got 3 for this matchup.

Relief Pitching:
These teams are on par with each other 3.72 ERA vs 3.85 ERA

Misc:
Texas is 1-9 in last 10 games
Toronto is 8-2 in last 10 games.

TOR as road Favs win by 1.5 rpg for the season.
TEX as home Dogs lose by 0.5 rpg

Texas is -11 units at home this season. They've dropped almost 10 units in the last 2 weeks. Huge downward trend as seen by their W/L over that time. Toronto is +0.5 units on the road. They've remained flat over the same 2 weeks.


Toronto -142

 

[Pimike]

We've been having a little luck in MLB lately.
Tuesday 3 Tm Parlay +318
Wednesday 3 Tm Parlay +298


Today I like Baltimore -117 BookMaker

Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 ET

Starting Pitching:
Voth (BAL) vs Bello (BOS). Both have been pitching well over the last month. The 5 starts from Voth 2.05 ERA and the 3 starts from Bello are 3.00 ERA over that time. In my opinion, Voth has faced better hitting teams.

Batting:
Both teams have been doing well with an edge to Boston over the last 7.
BOS WRC+ 115, OPS 0.762, AVG 0.263
BAL WRC+ 107, OPS 0.731, AVG 0.241
Last 3 games BAL rpg 4.33, BOS 2.33 rpg. I like seeing a +2 edge on this metric.

Relief Pitching
Baltimore has the edge here 3.35 ERA vs 4.41 ERA for Boston.

Misc:
Baltimore is a +16.5 units at home this season. The best in MLB and its not even close. 2nd is COL at +11. Boston is a -4 units on the road. The delta between BAL and BOS of 20 is huge.

BAL as home Favs typically win by 1.2 runs
BOS as road Dogs typically loses by 0.8 runs

Baltimore -117

GL today.

I agree but the low line concerns. Me a bit.

Good luck

 

[carolinakid]

bol with the bases today Tank

 

[Pimike]

I'm seeing Toronto with an edge over Texas. I don't like betting against Texas because they were performing well for several weeks but have fallen off significantly in the last 2 weeks.

Toronto -142

Starting Pitching:
Stripling (TOR) vs Dunning (TEX). Last 30 days ERA: 2.59 in 4 games for Stripling vs 5.92 in 5 games for Dunning. Toronto has 3-1 record in those starts vs Texas at 2-3 in the Dunning's starts.

Batting:
Recent batting.
. > TOR WRC+ 130, OPS 0.795, AVG 0.282
. > TEX WRC+ 48, OPS 0.512, AVG 0.180
Yeah, Texas has been really lacking at the plate of late. TEX is last in MLB avg while TOR is 4th during this period.

TOR 5.5 rpg over last 3.
TEX 2.5 rpg over last 3.
Again, I like seeing a delta of at least 2 and we got 3 for this matchup.

Relief Pitching:
These teams are on par with each other 3.72 ERA vs 3.85 ERA

Misc:
Texas is 1-9 in last 10 games
Toronto is 8-2 in last 10 games.

TOR as road Favs win by 1.5 rpg for the season.
TEX as home Dogs lose by 0.5 rpg

Texas is -11 units at home this season. They've dropped almost 10 units in the last 2 weeks. Huge downward trend as seen by their W/L over that time. Toronto is +0.5 units on the road. They've remained flat over the same 2 weeks.


Toronto -142

Thanks

Agree all.

Jays are that team that seems to be able to explode but had been a let down a lot. Texas is better than their past play.

 

[Tanko]

Got to pick a dog. This is a pretty big dog but I think it has a chance which means at these odds, there's an edge.

Washington Nats + 192 BOL

Starting Pitching:
Corbin (WAS) 2.96 ERA vs Syndergaard (PHI) 4.20 ERA (ERAs are from last 30 days). Also, IMO Corbin faced better hitting teams (NYM, CIN, SD, CHC) during that time than Syndergaard (SF, PIT, PIT, CIN, MIA). Edge here to WAS.


Batting (Recent - 7-10 days):
WAS: WRC+ 134, OPS 0.841, AVG 0.323
PHI: WRC+ 98, OPS 0.719, AVG 0.253

Yeah... The NATS have been hitting the ball well lately. #1 over that period in MLB.
That has corresponded to a 5.5 rpg avg for NATS vs 4.0 rpg avg for PHI in last 3.

Edge to WAS.


Relief Pitching:
NAT 3.52 ERA vs PHI 3.70 ERA
Edge to WAS

Misc:
WAS on road this season are +9 units.
PHI at home are -4 units.

WAS is 6-4 in last 10.
PHI is 3-7 in last 10.

Philly does usually win at home as Favs by 1.3 rpg and WAS does lose on the road as dogs by 0.9 rpg. But, with all the other recent stats, +192 is too much to pass up.

Washington Nats + 192 BOL

 

[sharpsquare]

Great stuff! GL today Tanko


Thor has def been hittable and the Nats are scrappy will def take a look at that juicy dog #

 

[Bubbles]

We've been having a little luck in MLB lately.
Tuesday 3 Tm Parlay +318
Wednesday 3 Tm Parlay +298


Today I like Baltimore -117 BookMaker

Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 ET

Starting Pitching:
Voth (BAL) vs Bello (BOS). Both have been pitching well over the last month. The 5 starts from Voth 2.05 ERA and the 3 starts from Bello are 3.00 ERA over that time. In my opinion, Voth has faced better hitting teams.

Batting:
Both teams have been doing well with an edge to Boston over the last 7.
BOS WRC+ 115, OPS 0.762, AVG 0.263
BAL WRC+ 107, OPS 0.731, AVG 0.241
Last 3 games BAL rpg 4.33, BOS 2.33 rpg. I like seeing a +2 edge on this metric.

Relief Pitching
Baltimore has the edge here 3.35 ERA vs 4.41 ERA for Boston.

Misc:
Baltimore is a +16.5 units at home this season. The best in MLB and its not even close. 2nd is COL at +11. Boston is a -4 units on the road. The delta between BAL and BOS of 20 is huge.

BAL as home Favs typically win by 1.2 runs
BOS as road Dogs typically loses by 0.8 runs

Baltimore -117

GL today.

orioles have made a turn for the best, hoping they can get a playoff game this season.i took the same pick. good luck tanko.

 

[Pimike]

Corbin a 20 game loser.

Who would had thought that?

He has pitched bad of late. Let’s cash it

 

[JDS]

Got to pick a dog. This is a pretty big dog but I think it has a chance which means at these odds, there's an edge.

Washington Nats + 192 BOL

Starting Pitching:
Corbin (WAS) 2.96 ERA vs Syndergaard (PHI) 4.20 ERA (ERAs are from last 30 days). Also, IMO Corbin faced better hitting teams (NYM, CIN, SD, CHC) during that time than Syndergaard (SF, PIT, PIT, CIN, MIA). Edge here to WAS.


Batting (Recent - 7-10 days):
WAS: WRC+ 134, OPS 0.841, AVG 0.323
PHI: WRC+ 98, OPS 0.719, AVG 0.253

Yeah... The NATS have been hitting the ball well lately. #1 over that period in MLB.
That has corresponded to a 5.5 rpg avg for NATS vs 4.0 rpg avg for PHI in last 3.

Edge to WAS.


Relief Pitching:
NAT 3.52 ERA vs PHI 3.70 ERA
Edge to WAS

Misc:
WAS on road this season are +9 units.
PHI at home are -4 units.

WAS is 6-4 in last 10.
PHI is 3-7 in last 10.

Philly does usually win at home as Favs by 1.3 rpg and WAS does lose on the road as dogs by 0.9 rpg. But, with all the other recent stats, +192 is too much to pass up.

Washington Nats + 192 BOL

I love these simple write up & key numbers display. Tanko knows how present a possible winner to the forum no doubt about it.

 

[JDS]

Nice presentation Tank

 

[Wagerallsports]

Keep it rolling

 

[Wagerallsports]

Think I'll join ya in Toronto

 

[Tanko]

Think I'll join ya in Toronto

Beers are cheaper there so we should have fun.

 

[Tanko]

Won 2 (BAL & TOR) lost 1. The dog (WAS) was too much to ask for today.

2-1 +1.0 units.