Service Plays - Wednesday 8/18/21

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Stephen Oh

SAN DIEGO @ COLORADO | 08/18 | 3:10 PM EDT
UNDER 13
ANALYSIS: Huge total even for Coors Field as these teams wrap up their series in the thin air. Both will have fill-in starting pitchers for various reasons, but the model still finds this number quite a bit too high with 64 percent of simulations landing Under 13 runs. The Under is 14-5 in Colorado's past 19 at home.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Matt Severance

SAN DIEGO @ COLORADO | 08/18 | 3:10 PM EDT
UNDER 14
ANALYSIS: This total has risen from an overnight of 13 to where it's the highest number of the season and just out of principle I have to take the Under. The wind isn't blowing out at Coors Field. I get why the number is so high between two bad starting pitchers in Jake Arrieta (Padres debut) and Chi Chi Gonzalez (fill-in for Austin Gomber), but I'll take my chances at two TDs (and PATs). Both clubs are off Thursday so can use their bullpens heavily.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Larry Hartstein

CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 08/18 | 12:35 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Reds burned me last night but I like them to bounce back in this early start against Adrian Sampson, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2019. His ERA in the minors was 4.96. Cincinnati typically destroys right-handed pitching (.789 OPS, best in MLB). Play the Reds on the run line at -170.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
JM Sports

Game: (955) New York Mets at (956) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 3:45 PM EDT
Play Rating: E units
Play: 1H San Francisco Giants -140 T Megill (RHP), A Desclafani (RHP) Must Start
E unit 1H San Fransisco Giants (-140) over New York Mets (DeSclafani/Megill) –
We are talking about two polar opposite teams in the 1H of games, NYM are ranked #29 in scoring in the 1H of a game, while SF is #7 (averaging almost a full run more then NYM)! The Mets also have Megill on the mound, who is very young and still learning, and while it is impressive that he has only given up 19 runs so far this year, but in his L3 starts he allowed 11 of those 19 runs, on top of a road ERA of 4.79! NYM are 3-12 as an AD vs. a SP w/ ERA < 3.50 (including 2-11 in L13 and 3-10 vs. RHP), and the team is on a 67-95 run on the road (including 3 straight L's for Megill). DeSclafani on the other hand is going for SF, who is 6-2 @ H and has a 3.29 ERA on the year. SF is also 7-2 in DeSclafani's L9 starts, including 10-2 following a W for the Giants. THey are 28-6 as a HF vs. RHP, 11-1 @ H after a game with 5 or less hits, 10-1 @ H after a game with 2+ HR, 19-3 as a HF w/ line < -115 after a game where they never trailed, 15-2 after a game where they committed an error (including 11 in a row) and in the day time they have shined, going 17-5 @ H in the day & 10-4 (including 5 in a row) in a day game following a night cap.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Dr. Chuck

Game: (979) Toronto Blue Jays at (980) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Aug 18 2021 4:05 PM EDT
Play Rating: D units
Play: Total Over 9.0 (-115) J Berrios (RHP), J Gray (RHP) Must Start
PLAYING THIS LIKE A 10 UNIT BOMB….without all the hoopla and PRICE!!!!!
12-0 Over trend
25-4 Over trend
after the All Star break interleague MONSTER Over play here…oh and yeah…Lancey boy behind the plate is an inexplicable Over beast in final games of series as well….25-10 and 7 of his last 8…including 3-1 this season…all well over 9 runs averaged in those games…with the last trend averaging 11 total runs…with a Vegas total of just barely over 8!
 

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