Service Plays - Tuesday 9/28/21

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Tight Affair in Paris
Game: (224273) Manchester City at (224274) Paris St Germain
Date/Time: Sep 28 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Total Under 3.0 (-130)

Manchester City's offense has been strike out or grand slam so far this season. The Citizens have scored five goals twice and six goals twice over the last five weeks. That's amazing. But what about the other games? Zero vs Leicester City in the FA Community Shield; Zero vs Tottenham in the Premier League opener; Zero last Saturday against Southampton; and one last weekend against Chelsea. Compare that to Liverpool who have scored 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, and 3 so far this season. Which offense would you rather have? The one that scores three goals every game, or the one that scores six then gets shut out? The chances have been there. The xg numbers have been there. But the finishing touch hasn't.
On the PSG side, Mauricio Pochettino can't figure out his lineup. Super teams can't gel overnight. They need time to figure things out, and Messi and Marco Verratti have both bounced in-and-out of the lineup over the last few weeks. Both are expected to play on Tuesday, but neither has received significant playing or training time in the lead-up to this match.
These big matches between the European giants are often played a lot tighter than the casual viewer would hope. Since 2018, Manchester City has played Liverpool (2x), Real Madrid (2x), Dortmund (2x), PSG (2x) and Chelsea (once) in the Champions League. None of those nine games featured more than three goals. At the time of posting, under 3 goals is available at DraftKings (-125); BetOnline (-126); Circa (-127); and Westgate SuperBook (-130).

Pointless Porto
Game: (224285) Liverpool at (224286) FC Porto
Date/Time: Sep 28 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: A units
Play: Liverpool Win to Nil

There are some early signs that the Portuguese Primeira might not be very good this season. Last year's league champion, Sporting, lost 5-1 at home to Ajax in their opening match of the Champions League. Benfica failed to beat Dynamo Kiev as a favorite in their opening match. Porto generated one shot on goal in their opening match against Atletico Madrid. The Portuguese teams look like they might be in for a struggle in this year's Champions League.
Liverpool gave up three goals to Brentford over the weekend, but Jurgen Klopp is confident that things will be tighter against Porto. “It’s not that much a concern because I don’t think you should make these things bigger than they are, but we have to show a reaction, that’s for sure. I think it’s really tricky to win a football game when you are not defending on your highest level, that’s what we didn’t do…We have to improve in that department for sure, but it’s not now the moment for being concerned or whatever. We spoke about it obviously and we know we cannot do it like that, so I think we sorted that and we have to show that tomorrow, that’s right.”
Liverpool has held four of their eight opponents scoreless this season, and I think they've got a pretty good shot to keep another clean sheet in Portugal. At the time of posting, Liverpool win-to-nil is available at Pinnacle (+235); Caesars (+230); BetOnline (+220) and DraftKings (+215).

High-Flying Atalanta
Game: (224297) Young Boys at (224298) Atalanta
Date/Time: Sep 29 2021 12:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Total Over 3.0 (-130)

After a slow start to the season, the high-flying Atalanta have started to wake up. They're coming off a thrilling 2-2 draw with Inter Milan over the weekend. They also tied Villarreal 2-2 in their opening match of the Champions League two weeks ago. Atalanta manager Gian Piero Gasperini has already said that he doesn't think his squad can compete in Serie A this year, and that he will put more emphasis into European play. Prior to last season, Atalanta's stadium was so small that they weren't even allowed to host Champions League games. It should be one of the most entertaining games on the Match Day 2 slate. Neither team plays with fear. Neither team is afraid to push the pace. Nine of Young Boys' last ten matches have seen 3+ goals. At the time of posting, over 3 goals is available at DraftKings (-125); Circa (-130) and the Westgate SuperBook (-130).
 

Losschaser

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Drew Martin

E% MLB Tuesday Plus Money BEST BET
Game: (909) Milwaukee Brewers at (910) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Sep 28 2021 7:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: E%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals +103 B Woodruff (RHP), A Wainwright (RHP) Must Start

The Brewers have been on cruise control for quite some time now, running out to a fairly large lead over the summer in the division and gearing up for the playoffs. On the flip side, "relatively quietly" (considering many sports bettors have turned their focus to football) the St. Louis Cardinals have rattled off 16 straight wins. The Red Birds are playing focused, energized ball, behind one of the best bullpens in baseball (#4 by my pen ratings), plus a scorching hot lineup.

Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright, the wily veteran who is facing the Brewers lineup in back-to-back starts and he did not fare well last time out (hence the favorable number we are able to get). The last time was on the road and tonight is at home and Wainwright is exhibit A when it comes to home/ road splits. He has over a .65 point difference in opposing lineups OPS against and almost a full point higher strikeout to walk ratio when pitching at home. Important to note, this is a 15+ year MLB career sample size, we are not cherry-picking numbers. This is likely where baseball analytics and fundamentals of him being a family man are in full effect. The opposition's starter Brandon Woodruff has been good overall this season, although with the Brewers already looking towards the playoffs, Woodruff has been on a tight pitch count, in fact not exceeding 6 innings of work since back in July. Pointing towards the shaky middle relief arms of the Brewers pen likely seeing some action.

Lastly, and arguably the most important angle in this handicap is the offensive production of recent. We are getting the second hottest lineup in baseball over the last week with the Cardinals (wRC+ 138) vs the coldest lineup in baseball with the Brewers (66 wRC+). Cardinals 16 straight wins- The trend is our friend and we get the better bullpen, the hotter lineup, and the home/ road splits favoring Wainwright, let's cash with the home dog in St. Louis.
 

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Totals 4 U

Totals 4 You MLB Baseball Report for Tuesday, Sept 28th

2021 AL Wildcard Battle Super Total of the Year!!!!!
NY Yankees/Toronto over 9 1/2

MLB Baseball Bonus Winners
Washington/Colorado over 11 1/2
LA Angels/Texas over 9
San Diego/LA Dodgers over 8
Cincinnati/Chicago White Sox over 9 1/2
 

Losschaser

Member
Nick Borrman

C% Inter Milan at Shakhtar Donetsk - Play: Shakhtar Donetsk +1.25 (-130)
D% Liverpool at FC Porto - Play: Liverpool (-135)
E% Sporting Lisbon at Dortmund - PARLAY Dortmund & OVER 2.5 Goals (-125)
 

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Insider Sports Report
D* Oakland (Bassitt) -125 over Seattle (Kikuchi)
Range: -110 to -150
C* N.Y. Yankees (Taillon) +110 over Toronto (Ryu)
Range: +125 to -115

National Sports Service
D* Colorado (Freeland) -150 over Washington (Corbin)
C* Pittsburgh (Keller) -115 over Chicago Cubs (Mills)

Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> Philadelphia (Wheeler) +110 over Atlanta (Morton)
C Unit --> Houston (Urquidy) -135 over Tampa Bay (Wacha)

Top Rank Sports Picks
D★ Chicago Cubs (Mills)/Pittsburgh (Keller) OVER 9
C★ Oakland (Bassitt) -125 over Seattle (Kikuchi)
 

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Pickswise Sports

MLB C* Best Bets
Red Sox -1.5 runs
Giants -1.5 runs
Dodgers -177

Soccer
A* Manchester City/PSG (DRAW +250)
A* Liverpool/Porto Under 2.5 goals
 

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