Service Plays - Saturday 9/25/21

Bettor Days

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RALPH MICHAELS

  • Game: (331) Florida International at (332) Central Michigan
    Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 12:00 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
    Play Rating: 5%
    Play: Central Michigan -11.5 (-110)
 

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Dave Cokin

D% Boston College +3
D% Utah -14.5
D% Washington -7.5
C% Florida Atlantic +5.5
C% New Mexico +2
 

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big al

4* Oklahoma -16, 7:30 pm
3* San Jose St. +3, 2 pm *NEW*
3* Florida St. +2.5, 3:30 pm
3* Iowa -22.5, 3:30 pm *NEW*
1* Baylor +7, 3:30 pm *NEW*
1* Michigan -20.5, 3:30 pm *NEW*
1* Tennessee +19, 7 pm *NEW*
 

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Scotty Spreitzer


Florida State +2 (3U)
Oklahoma -17 (3U)
Clemson -10 (3U)
New Mexico -1 (6U)
 

Bettor Days

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Docs- Manchester City PK -110 (7U)
Docs- Man United U3 (4U)
Docs- AC Milan -1 -120 (4U)
Docs- Leicester City -160 (3U)
 

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Doc's

h-Kentucky-5
e-Stanford+4.5
c-ND+6.5
c-Kans.st+6
c-Michigan.st-4.53
 

Bettor Days

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PARLAY WINNERS SATURDAY FOOTBALL

Play Kentucky -5 over South Carolina (NCAA)

Kentucky has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they have covered the spread in 5 consecutive games coming off a non-conference game.

Play North Carolina -12 over Georgia Tech (NCAA)

Georgia Tech has lost 6 of the last 9 games against the spread when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points and they have lost 9 of the last 12 games against the spread after having lost two of the last three games.

Play Florida Atlantic +4.5 over Air Force (NCAA)

Florida Atlantic has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games and they have covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in their last game.

Play Texas A&M -5.5 over Arkansas (NCAA)

Texas A&M has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games coming off three or more consecutive wins.

Play Utah State +9 over Boise State (NCAA)

Utah State has covered the spread in 14 of the last 19 games when the total posted is between 63.5 and 70 points and they have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing in the month of September.
 

Bettor Days

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Kevin Dolan

E% top play - under 46.5 California/Washington

Breakdown

Two teams coming off 40+ point games but we expect this one to be much lower scoring on Saturday night between the Huskies and the Golden Bears.

After a rough start to the season, the Huskies seem to have got their mojo back on defense, holding the Arkansas State Red Wolves to just 3 points last week and just 4.5 yards per pass attempt through the air.

The Huskies now lead the PAC-12 in scoring defense, pass efficiency defense, first down defense and third down efficiency defense over the first three games of the season.

On the other side, California are humming right now on the ground under coach Justin Wilcox. The Bears yards per rush attempt this season is on par to equal the 183.0 ypg they set back in 2012 and the Bears rank 5th right now in total rushing yards per game in the PAC-12 this season.

The Under has cashed in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two sides and is 6-0 to the Under in their last 6 in Washington as well.

We expect another low scoring sub-40 point game here on Saturday similar to the last two meetings back in 2018 & 2019 and recommending a play on the Under here on Saturday between California and Washington.

PLAY: UNDER 46.5

*Line good to 46, 45.5 to 45 (4%), 44.5 < (3%)
 

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Allen East man

**H-U NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR

Take #369 Kansas State (+6) over Oklahoma State
 

Wagerallsports

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BTC SPORT

Cruisin' Carolina
Game: (347) North Carolina at (348) Georgia Tech
Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: North Carolina -12.0 (-110)
You're not going to get rich by betting double-digit conference favorites on the road, so tread responsibly. But I do think this is a good spot for Carolina to continue to claw their way back up the rankings with another impressive win. That opening night loss to Virginia Tech is in the rear-view mirror, and now that we have the benefit of hindsight, that was a brutal spot for the Tar Heels. They were welcoming in new players in a lot of key positions on the road in one of the loudest stadiums in the country. They've bounced back really well, covering the spread by double-digits against Georgia State and Virginia. The Tar Heels have out-gained their three opponents by an average of 173 yards per game.
I think North Carolina could enjoy a big mismatch in the trenches, much like Clemson did last week. Georgia Tech has a -9 sack differential on the season, giving up 11 sacks and only generating two of their own. In Tuesday's press conference, Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins admitted that his team will probably be out-manned in the trenches. “I still vividly remember two years ago right out here us playing Carolina and that offensive line. Even coaching six or seven years in the SEC, that line was as big and physical as any team and they are still big and physical up front."
I honestly don't know what you can take away from Georgia Tech's game against Clemson last week. There was a two-hour storm intermission before halftime. So the both teams had to warm up twice and essentially play two separate games. Georgia Tech's defense looked phenomenal, but how much of that was a product of the weirdness of the game?
This game is at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, so there really isn't any kind of home field advantage for Georgia Tech. I'm sure plenty of Carolina faithful will make the trek. The Yellow Jackets haven't played there since 2017, so there's no real familiarity with playing in the dome. Playing on the fast turf is probably an advantage for the superior athletes of North Carolina.
 

Wagerallsports

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Pickswise Sports

CFB C* Best Bets
Wisconsin/Notre Dame Under 46
Kent State +14.5
Duke/Kansas Over 56.5
Kansas State +6
North Carolina -12.5
 

Bettor Days

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BTC Sports Added

Tigers Will Pounce
Game: (343) Missouri at (344) Boston College
Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Missouri -1.5 (-110)
You really can't understate how bad Boston College's schedule has been thus far. According to Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, the Eagles have played the No. 103 (Temple) and 128 (UMass) teams in FBS, and the No. 101 team (Colgate) from the FCS. They haven't played a-n-y-b-o-d-y. Missouri is definitely a flawed team, particularly in their rushing defense. But the SEC speed and athleticism that they are going to put on the field is three notches above anything Boston College has seen so far this season.
This will be Boston College's second game without star quarterback Phil Jurkovic. His backup, Dennis Grosel, didn't exactly install a lot of confidence last week against Temple. Grosel has been very hit-and-miss during his three years at Boston College. He was 32-for-46 for 520 yards in last year's finale against Virginia. Awesome, right? In 2019 he completed 48.6-percent of his passes. Last week against Temple he was 7-for-15 for 59 yards and an interception. Yeesh.
During a Q&A session on Wednesday, a respected college football bettor said, "No injury thus far into the season is bigger than Jurkovic." I don't think the betting market has made a big enough adjustment from Jurkovic down to Grosel.
Missouri is going to score in this game. Last season, the Tigers scored 45 vs LSU; 50 vs Arkansas; 32 at Mississippi State. Even in a losing effort, the Tigers generated 398 yards and 25 first downs against a very good Kentucky defense two weeks ago. The Tigers' offense is dynamic. You can pencil in 24 points for Missouri right now. Are we sure Boston College can match them?

Hot One in Tulsa
Game: (407) Arkansas State at (408) Tulsa
Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 5:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Total Over 63.0 (-110)
Arkansas State plays at a very high pace, and temperatures are going to be in the low-90s on Saturday afternoon in Tulsa. That means you're going to see some worn-down defenses on both teams. The Red Wolves are averaging 87.5 plays per game so far this year (No. 2 in the country) after finishing No. 9 in plays per game last year. They utilize a two-QB system with James Blackman (remember him Florida State fans?) and Layne Hatcher. Arkansas State's defense is not good, but they do know how to cause a little havoc. The Red Wolves have forced seven turnovers in their first three games.
The transfer portal has allowed these mid-tier schools to load up on offensive skill position players that have been cast off by bigger schools. On the Tulsa side, running back Deneric Prince is a Texas A&M transfer. Wide Receivers Josh Johnson (Iowa State) and Ezra Naylor (Kansas) are both Big XII transfers. Arkansas State has Blackman (Florida State) at quarterback and Johnnie Lang (Iowa State) at running back. Yes, Blackman had his struggles at Florida State, but he should shine in the Sun Belt.
Tulsa is averaging 5.6 yards per play, which by itself doesn't sound all that impressive. But when you consider that two of their three games have come at Oklahoma State and at Ohio State, that carries some serious value. If the Golden Hurricane can move the ball efficiently against a Big XII and a Big Ten squad, then they should have no problem doing the same against the Red Wolves. Tulsa's defense might be a step off in this game after chasing around Spencer Sanders, CJ Stroud and TreVeyon Henderson the last two weeks. Arkansas State should be able to put up some points of their own.

Cruisin' Carolina
Game: (347) North Carolina at (348) Georgia Tech
Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: North Carolina -12.0 (-110)
You're not going to get rich by betting double-digit conference favorites on the road, so tread responsibly. But I do think this is a good spot for Carolina to continue to claw their way back up the rankings with another impressive win. That opening night loss to Virginia Tech is in the rear-view mirror, and now that we have the benefit of hindsight, that was a brutal spot for the Tar Heels. They were welcoming in new players in a lot of key positions on the road in one of the loudest stadiums in the country. They've bounced back really well, covering the spread by double-digits against Georgia State and Virginia. The Tar Heels have out-gained their three opponents by an average of 173 yards per game.
I think North Carolina could enjoy a big mismatch in the trenches, much like Clemson did last week. Georgia Tech has a -9 sack differential on the season, giving up 11 sacks and only generating two of their own. In Tuesday's press conference, Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins admitted that his team will probably be out-manned in the trenches. “I still vividly remember two years ago right out here us playing Carolina and that offensive line. Even coaching six or seven years in the SEC, that line was as big and physical as any team and they are still big and physical up front."
I honestly don't know what you can take away from Georgia Tech's game against Clemson last week. There was a two-hour storm intermission before halftime. So the both teams had to warm up twice and essentially play two separate games. Georgia Tech's defense looked phenomenal, but how much of that was a product of the weirdness of the game?
This game is at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, so there really isn't any kind of home field advantage for Georgia Tech. I'm sure plenty of Carolina faithful will make the trek. The Yellow Jackets haven't played there since 2017, so there's no real familiarity with playing in the dome. Playing on the fast turf is probably an advantage for the superior athletes of North Carolina.

High-Scoring Hoosiers
Game: (351) Indiana at (352) Western Kentucky
Date/Time: Sep 25 2021 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Total Over 64.0 (-110)
This is a high total for a relatively boring team like Indiana, but it's justified. There are a handful of factors that I really like here. First, this is a “get right” spot for Michael Penix Jr. and this Indiana offense. This is a very similar handicap to what I said about Michigan's offense last week. Indiana head coach Tom Allen needs to know what he's working with here. He's not going to learn anything about Penix's health and the status of this offense by just turning around and handing the ball off to a running back. This offense needs to get on track, and I think they're going to be very aggressive by letting Penix throw the ball.
Speaking of aggressive, that's exactly what the Western Kentucky squad is. For those that haven't seen a lot of Western Kentucky this season, their whole offense essentially has been brought over from FCS-level Houston Baptist. They have a fifth-year senior quarterback who started 36 games at Houston Baptist, and they brought over their offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and top three wide receivers to go along with him. Bailey Zappe was 28-of-40 for 435 yards and three touchdowns against Army. They combined for 73 points, and honestly, it should have been closer to 90. It was 0-0 after the first quarter because the first three drives of the game ended in the opponents' red zone. They combined for 893 yards and there was one punt in the game. I think we see a pretty similar outcome here.
Western Kentucky is coming off a bye, so they've had time to add some wrinkles into their passing game. Weather looks picture-perfect on Saturday night in Bowling Green. I think we see these two teams light up the scoreboard.
 

Wagerallsports

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Tom Stryker

100% NCAA CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH
Clemson

14-0 ATS NCAA PERFECT DATABASE WAGER
Troy

NCAA 3-GAME POWER PACKAGE (GO 3-0)
Northwestern
Baylor
Arizona State
 

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