Service Plays - Monday 7/5/21


Matt Severance

TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: Bit of a tough call here as you know the Lightning would prefer to clinch the Cup on home ice and the players might be a little tired of being in that Montreal bubble due to COVID restrictions. One figures the Habs come out firing with nothing to lose -- that also could weaken their defense in front of Carey Price. He's a future Hall of Famer but has been very shaky in this series with a 4.38 GAA and a .835 save percentage. Some had speculated Jake Allen might get the call in Game 4, but it will be Price. I simply can't come up with enough reasons to justify picking Montreal with the talent gap between these teams. Maybe if the Canadiens had a full building of fans. And the puckline on the Habs at -200 is simply not worth it. Tampa sweeps to repeat, and we'll see you in October when we can cherry-pick the best regular-season games and get our numbers up near +4000 again.


John Bollman

TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: The Lightning are going for the sweep in Montreal on Monday and I honestly don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t get it. Tampa Bay has been the better team all series but Montreal has also been making really bad mistakes all series that cost them. You can’t have miscues like that and expect to beat the Lightning, let alone win a Stanley Cup. Carey Price has looked leaky and Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a wall. Take the Lightning to get the sweep.


Stephen Oh

CHI. CUBS -135
ANALYSIS: My model says the Cubs win in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Chicago returns home after having lost the final nine contests of its 10-game road trip. That should go a long way toward ending the losing streak, as the Cubs are among the best home teams in the majors at 26-13. In addition, they're facing a Philadelphia club that is 11 games under .500 on the road. Expect Chicago to end its slide.



Game: (907) Milwaukee Brewers at (908) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 5 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -132 B Woodruff (RHP), T Megill (RHP) Must Start

Game 907.
4:10 pm pst.

Milwaukee owns a seven-game lead in the NL Central. They are red-hot, winning 12 of their last 13. The Brewers have had strong pitching all season long and now their lineup has begun to explode. The offense has lit up the scoreboard for five or more runs in eight of their last 10 outings. New York can not hit. They rank 29th in scoring, accounting for a dismal, 3.64 RPG. Their pitching has been solid. However, several starters are sidelined with injuries. They give Tylor Megil his third ever career start. It wasn’t that long ago that he was throwing in Double-A and Triple-A. Brandon Woodruff (7-3, 1.87) gets the nod here. The team has won six of his last seven starts and overall is 11-4 in his 15 turns in 2021. The Brewers are 8-1 L9 meetings with the Mets, 5-1 L6 on the road, and 20-7 L27 vs. RH starters. Take Milwaukee. Thank you.



Game: (903) Los Angeles Dodgers at (904) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Jul 5 2021 6:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: 1H Los Angeles Dodgers -155 W Buehler (RHP), T Rogers (LHP) Must Start

D unit 1H Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) over Miami Marlins (Buehler/Rogers) —
Let’s start off with the fact that the Dodgers are #6 in terms of scoring in the 1H of games vs. a Marlins team that is #28 in the same category. LA is on a 9 game win streak at the moment and they’ve had a lot of success this year in the first game of a series. In the L16 series, they won the first game in 14 out of those 16, including 6-0 vs LHP in FGS, 6-1 in the L7 on the road and 8-1 when they are starting a series coming off a win. With Buehler on the mound, I anticipate a low scoring affair, especially because the Dodgers are hold opponents to 2.3 runs/game in the L7. While that is impressive, Buehler may be even better then that, he’s got a 2.06 ERA on the road, he’s only allowed 9 runs in almost 40 IP away from LA, alongside a 0.788 WHIP on the road (0.900 WHIP TY combined), and LA is 5-1 in his 6 road starts. Even though Miami has an all-star pitcher on the mound (team is 0-3 in his road starts & 1.67 runs of support is Rogers L3 starts), you still can’t avoid the fact that this team is 1-8 in the L9 vs. a SP w/ an ERA<3.00, and 1-5 in L6 vs. a SP w/ a WHIP<1.00. The Marlins are 4-12 in the first game of the L16 series, and they are 5-12 when their opponent is coming off B2B wins, but Miami’s bullpen has been pretty solid so I’m going to stick with the #6 vs. #28 matchup in the 1H.

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