8:15 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
These AFC non-division foes have gotten off to polar opposite starts to the season. The Colts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) just snapped a three-game losing streak with their first win of the season, beating Miami 27-17 as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Ravens (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) have rebounded from a Week 1 loss to the Raiders with three straight wins, including a 23-7 beatdown of the Broncos last week, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. The Colts are -14 in point differential. The Ravens are 13.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is hammering the red-hot Ravens, with 77-percent of bets at BetMGM laying the chalk with Lamar Jackson and company. However, despite this lopsided betting, the line has remained frozen at 7. This signals some liability on the road dog Colts with oddsmakers reluctant to move to + 7.5 and hand out the hook to contrarian Indianapolis backers. Road dogs are 29-19 ATS (60 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 8-6 ATS this season and 36-25 ATS (59 percent) over the past two seasons. The public has a lot of teasers pending on the Ravens, taking Baltimore down from -7 to -1. Baltimore is 16-2 in primetime games under John Harbaugh. The Ravens are also a sneaky popular survivor pick play. Gameday movement will tell a lot. If we see juice creep up and the line fall toward 6.5, that will indicate further Colts money. If it shifts toward -7.5, then the Ravens will be taking in the late action.
We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 48 to 46. Both teams are 2-2 to the over/under on the season. Primetime overs are 8-5 on the season, but unders have gone 4-1 over the last five. The under is 5-0 over the past five matchups between these teams.