Lonzo is coming off of a great game vs a tough Heat squad where he scored 11 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and dished out 6 assists. The Bulls are back at home tonight and may be missing Zach Lavine due to an illness, and even if he does play he may not be 100%. I’m expecting Lonzo to have a strong offensive production tonight leading to a PRA well over 23.5. Take this up to 24.5.
I love when the public is heavy on a prop, especially when the prop is set higher than it should be. I will confidently take this under as Poole tends to underperform when going against strong defensive teams. Take this up to 17.5.
I love Al to snag 7+ rebounds tonight against a 76ers squad who has been bottom of the barrel in rebounding % so far this season. The Celtics as a team are averaging 47 RPG (4th in the league) and 11 offensive RPG. I expect this healthy Celtics squad to play strong defense at home tonight, forcing many missed shots and creating more chances to grab boards.
With the Heat being short handed once again tonight they will rely on Herro/Lowry/Robinson’s 3 point shooting to keep them in this game. Herro has hit this line in 5 of his last 6 games played, taking 11 3’s in one of those matches. I expect the high shooting volume to continue tonight.
Chris Duarte has only hit this line once in his last 5 games played, he also played for 36 minutes in that game (he averages around 25). With Levert, Brogdon, and Sabonis now healthy Duarte will see less time on the court. Take this down to 18. And check out the odds for the game here: https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nba/odds/ GL!
Murray has been crushing it lately, and he’s been doing it against tough teams. Last night vs the Suns he went 17/6/14 and before that 23/12/7 vs the Warriors. Last season his average PRA was 28, 5 points below the line we are getting tonight. I like this line down to 32.
After targeting Herro in the last Miami game we took a prop in, tonight we will look at Duncan Robinson. In his most recent match he shot 5 3’s and only connected on 2 of them. In his last game vs the Bucks he took 7 3’s and made 3. Tonight, with Butler and Bam out again, I’m expecting him to take 8+ 3’s and connect on at least 3 of them.
The Vikings offensive line will struggle tonight in the trenches vs TJ Watt who holds a 26% pass rush win rate. I do not think that Kirk will have enough time in the pocket to catch KJ downfield for 20+ yards. He will be mainly targeting his #1 receiver Jefferson, who will account for most of the Vikings yards tonight. Take this down to a flat 20.
The Panthers will be looking to get back on track today against the Atlanta Falcons who are currently allowing 248 passing yards per game. The Falcons also rank 29th in passing DVOA and dead last in the league in sacks. Cam hasn’t been playing very well, but today he will get more breathing room in the pocket to find DJ Moore down field. Take up to 60.
This is a great value play as FanDuel has this line at -110 while most other books have it set around -140. Saving around 30 cents here and with no Higbee in the game I expect Kupp to get fed A LOT tonight. Take this up to -120 if you can’t use FanDuel.
I don’t usually lay juice like this, but I feel confident Poole can get this number with how poor the Knicks have been defending the 3 ball. Steph Curry has a lot of attention on him tonight which will let Poole slip under the radar and cash this ticket for us. This is -150 in a few places, take it up -140.
The Wizards continue their awful slide and look to get right against the Kings tonight. The Kings have one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing 114.4 PPG and holding a defense rating of 112.6. Dinwiddie hasn’t hit this in his L7 games but I’m expecting a big night for him of 16+ points with a couple of threes. This line speaks for itself, take up to 13.5. Get the odds for the Wizards/Kings game here: https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nba/odds/
Pick: Mike Williams Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Chargers will be facing a Chiefs defense that allows 252 passing yards per game and 257 YPG when on the road. Mike Williams is averaging 70 yards per game and 15 yards per reception. The Chiefs pass rush could potentially be without Chris Jones, which would give Herbert a lot more breathing room in the pocket to complete passes. With Ekelers status in the air, the Chargers may have to resort to a heavy air attack in which Williams will be a top target. Expecting 6+ catches for 60+ yards tonight.
This is sitting at plus money on FanDuel while it’s juiced up on most other sites. Love the value here as Chubb remains the Browns strongest weapon on offense and will be utilized to the fullest extent. Take advantage of BMR's full odds list for this game. Remember to take this up to -125 on any other site. https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/odds/
Love the under here as the Seahawks offense will struggle without their top receiver Lockett against a strong LA secondary. Ramsey will be able to limit DK and the Seahawks won’t be able to move the ball much on the ground. Love our odds here as we stay above key numbers 44,43,41,40.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
With San Francisco being depleted in the RB position they have turned to using their #1 receiver in that position, and he’s been killing it! Today they will face a Tennessee defense that is very strong against the run and will not let up big gains. I believe that the 49ers will lean on their passing attack as they have the dangerous duo of Kittle + Samuel to tear up a secondary who allows 240+ yards per game. Take this up to 45. Check the odds for this TNF game by hitting the link, LFG! https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/odds/