- Mar 6, 2018
Mike Clay's guide to NFL player prop bets for Week 2ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Each week of the 2021 NFL season, I will review every individual player prop available via our partners at Caesars Sportsbook and pick out my favorite plays. This week's best bets are listed below, in no particular order.
For thoughts on player-prop strategy, check out our recent staff roundtable on the topic.
Ryan Tannehill under 35.5 pass attempts (-125), under 258.5 pass yards (-115)
Tannehill is coming off a rough Week 1 in which he threw for 212 yards on 35 pass attempts against Arizona. He has now fallen short of 36 attempts in six consecutive games and 25 of 31 games (81%) since taking over as the Titans' starter in Week 7 of the 2019 season. Tannehill fell below 259 yards in 20 of those 31 games (65%), including 13 of 18 (72%) last season. Tennessee is an underdog at Seattle this week (which suggests more passing than usual is probable), but note that Tannehill fell short of both of these marks in five of the Titans' six losses last season. He averaged 30.3 attempts and 212.5 yards in those six games.
Projection: 239 yards on 30.9 attempts
Jalen Hurts over 31.5 pass attempts (-110)Hurts has now played four full games at the NFL level and has reached 32 pass attempts in three. The exception was his first start (30 attempts against the Saints in Week 14 last season), and he has since posted attempt totals of 44, 39 and 35. The latter (35) was during last week's dominant victory in Atlanta. The Eagles were able to run out the clock late but called a balanced offense once adjusted for game script. Hurts' scramble ability makes this one a little risky, but he has been able to hit this mark three times despite racking up seven-plus rushing attempts in each of his starts. Granted they were trailing for a majority of the game, but the Lions attempted 57 passes against the 49ers in Week 1.
Kyler Murray under 274.5 pass yards (-115)Murray threw for 289 yards in Week 1, but he had been under 275 yards in seven of his previous eight games. In fact, Murray has reached 275 yards in only 11 of 33 career games (33%), averaging 241.9 per game during the span. This week, Murray and the Cardinals are a home favorite against a Minnesota team that lost to the Bengals in Week 1. Arizona should be able to run the ball plenty, and Murray's pass attempts are always capped a bit by his elite rushing prowess.
Russell Wilson under 36.5 pass attempts (-110)Wilson has finished with fewer than 37 pass attempts in 26 of his past 36 games (72%) tracing back to the beginning of the 2019 season. He has fallen short of this line in six straight outings and in 11 of 17 games (65%) last season. Wilson only attempted 23 passes in Seattle's Week 1 win at Indianapolis. This week, he's back home against a Tennessee team that was crushed by Arizona in Week 1 (opposing QB Kyler Murray attempted 32 passes in that game).
DK Metcalf under 6.5 receptions (-125)Sometimes props correlate, and this is an example of that. If we're on the Wilson under, it makes sense that we're in the same boat with Metcalf. Metcalf has fallen short of seven receptions in seven consecutive games, including a four-catch effort in Week 1. Metcalf failed to reach seven catches in 14 of 17 games (82%) last season, averaging 5.2 per game along the way. Incredibly, Metcalf only reached seven receptions once as a rookie, so he has hit the mark in four of 36 career games (11%). Even at -125 and against a Titans defense that allowed 17 wide receiver receptions in Week 1, the under is the play.
George Kittle under 5.5 receptions (+115)Kittle will occasionally pop up with a heavy volume game, but believe it or not, he has fallen short of six receptions in nine of his past 12 games. In fact, he has played 42 games since taking over as the team's clear starter at the beginning of the 2018 season and has reached six catches in 20 (or 48%) of those games. This week, Kittle will face an Eagles defense that stifled the Atlanta offense in Week 1, including allowing a 4-31-0 receiving line on eight targets to Kyle Pitts. Six catches is obviously in range for one of the league's best players, but at +115, the under is worth a look.
Antonio Brown under 5.5 receptions (-135), under 63.5 receiving yards (-115)Brown had a big Week 1 in which he put up 121 yards and one touchdown, but he did so on only seven targets and five receptions. Brown was the team's No. 3 wideout, playing 41 snaps (36 routes), compared to 63 snaps (50 routes) for Chris Godwin and 60 snaps (47 routes) for Mike Evans. Brown has appeared in 12 games with Tampa Bay and has reached six catches three times (and one was an 11-catch game in which Evans was sidelined and Brown played 53 snaps, easily his most since joining the team). The yardage story is similar, as Brown has reached 64 yards in four of 12 games (three of 11 if we exclude the game Evans missed) with the team. Brown does have a good matchup against the Falcons this week, but these lines are nonetheless a bit high for the 33-year-old.
Projection: 50 yards on 3.9 receptions
Laviska Shenault Jr. over 0.5 rush yards (-115)
This one is a bit of a lottery ticket, as it may be decided on one play, but if Shenault gets a carry (and history says he will), you're likely going to win this one. The second-year receiver has at least one carry in 12 of 15 career games and at least one rushing yard in 10 of 15 games. That includes a Week 1 game -- his first with coach Urban Meyer -- in which he ran for nine yards on his lone carry. Shenault has 100 yards on 19 career carries (5.3 YPC) and is a good bet for one or two attempts on Sunday. All we need is plus yardage.