Do Sportsbooks…

[613tunit]

… manipulate the line from where it “should” be to sway the public to one side? I’ve always been curious about this. Would love to know everyone’s perspective. Thanks!!

 

[KVB]

I wrote this across the street many moons ago, it's something to consider...

I’ve often posted on how betting on sports is a three way street; and understanding all three ways will go a long way towards a few more winners and few less losers. There’s the odds maker, the bookmaker, and the player. I’ve discussed these relationships in the past, most notably, that it is player vs player (not player vs bookie) and the true costs of vigorish, and today I want to focus once again on the bookmaker’s perspective.


It is common knowledge that the book adjusts its line in hopes of maintaining equal action on both sides. This way the vigorish is an easy paycheck. But many of us know common sense is not always correct or the right sense. While smaller, independent neighborhood bookies might strive for equal action; this is not the case for larger pockets and big time houses.


Truthfully, it is almost mathematically impossible to get equal action on both sides, maybe close enough, but never equal. The esoteric know that sharp books or books reading the sharp players strive for certain amount of action on a game, not always equal action.


Let’s take a classic, simple example…for some a no brainer, for others perhaps enlightening.


For $11,000 worth of bets, equal action would have $5500 on each side. At -110 odds, the books pays one side $10,500 and keeps $500.


But this thread is about taking a position. One of the greatest bookmakers of all time has explained it differently.


So let’s say $6600 is bet on Seattle while $4400 comes in on San Francisco…all at -110. If Seattle wins, I keep $4400 and have to pay out $6000. I lost $1600.


If San Francisco wins, I keep $6600 and pay out $4000. I win $2600.


I, the book, basically have $1600 at risk to win $2600. On the same game, I have one team at about +163 while the public would have to risk $2860 for the same payout.


For sharp books (and those who can read their sharp players) with large pockets, worldwide, this is difference in risk vs. reward is how the sportsbooks can guarantee a long term profit in the marketplace they create.


Remember, bookmaking is not just a service, it’s a business. And while it is player vs. player from the bettor’s perspective, the bookmaker too exercises advantages over all his players.


Understanding the bookmaker’s perspective is sure to help you find a few more winners and can certainly take you off some losers.


Good Luck

 

[613tunit]

Thanks KVB

 

[KVB]

You're welcome, 613.

I have a few nuggets like that from across the street. Maybe I should post some here for further discussion. Although most have probably already read most of it.

 

[pete0]

I wrote this across the street many moons ago, it's something to consider...

Thanks for the reminder KVB.

I've been saying the same thing for years,

"It is common knowledge that the book adjusts its line in hopes of maintaining equal action on both sides. This way the vigorish is an easy paycheck. But many of us know common sense is not always correct or the right sense. While smaller, independent neighborhood bookies might strive for equal action; this is not the case for larger pockets and big time houses.


Truthfully, it is almost mathematically impossible to get equal action on both sides, maybe close enough, but never equal. The esoteric know that sharp books or books reading the sharp players strive for certain amount of action on a game, not always equal action."

why take a measly guaranteed 4.5 % ? at -110s , when ur already a big enough book, with enough players to profile "sharp players $" coming in. offset their potential loss at another book, then shade the line.... way more profitable as a business.

 

[jjgold]

A lot of books move
Off air

Easy way to book

 

[pete0]

A lot of books move
Off air

Easy way to book

some1 told me, early and late line movement is all that matters,

everything else in the middle is random / injuries/ weather. etc.

the probable outcome is already deciphered by the book, shorty after the opener.
i dont mean the line, but the actual outcome.
info. makes line more refined, by tip off.

 

[jjgold]

It’s well known, if you’re a good line reader, you could hold your own

KVB knows many books move off the don best screen

 

[613tunit]

A lot of books move
Off air

Easy way to book

Maybe one day I’ll understand what JJ is trying to say. Super confused all the time

 

[613tunit]

You're welcome, 613.

I have a few nuggets like that from across the street. Maybe I should post some here for further discussion. Although most have probably already read most of it.

Thanks again KVB

 

[pete0]

Thanks again KVB

KVB is a fkking professional.

 

[JDS]

Thanks again KVB

You wanna follow a betting professional on here @ BMR follow him & his reasonings & plays.

 

[jjgold]

There’s probably only about five books in usa that actually know what bookmaking is and have the right people there

Most places just have a real wide margin so you don’t have to book


Most places are just gearing their business to parlays again that’s not booking

 

[keithrichard]

There’s probably only about five books in usa that actually know what bookmaking is and have the right people there

Most places just have a real wide margin so you don’t have to book


Most places are just gearing their business to parlays again that’s not booking

The U.S. books mantra is Single Game Parlays. They try pushing them down your throat. These newbie gamblers will get eaten alive if they listen to this crap.