Bigger Than Dallas (Ark vs A&M Pick)

locksnonstop

locksnonstop

Joined
Sep 21, 2022
Messages
7

I'm recommending a play on Texas A&M ML -130 against Arkansas this weekend.

There's been a lot of concern regarding the focus level of the Aggies. They've had nonstop disciplinary problems. It's a complete zoo of a program - these kids are playing for the name on the back of their jersey, not the name on the front. But if any spot is going to capture the attention of these future NFL savages, it's going to be this big glitzy rivalry game contested at Jerry World. This game is quite literally "bigger than Dallas".

But let’s put aside all of the fundamental analysis...such as how this player matches up against that player...or how this staff will scheme against that staff.
This handicap boils down to recognizing a classic "head fake".

Syndicates are known to "dummy up" games on occasion. They faux bet one side in order to get a number to where they want it before REALLY firing. This is one of those games. The odds opened A&M -2.5 and came down all the way to -1 before being briskly bid back up to its current -2.

(I fully expect this number to be -2.5 and shaded with Aggie juice by kickoff...Vegas won't let it touch the key 3.)

Here's what you really need to know:

When you see a line whipsawing this early in the week, it smacks of market manipulation. I know for a fact that serious professional syndicates have already established large postions on Texas A&M at -1 and -1.5.

To be honest, I was originally leaning Arkansas based on fundamental metrics. But I'm going to respect this head fake. And I'm also going to take out all of the slack, and just play A&M on the ML.

Good Luck,

LocksNonStop
 

BobbyFK

BobbyFK

Joined
Oct 19, 2021
Messages
7,366
Welcome to BMR lock! Great write up and analysis into the game and best of luck on the play
 

lemartinsports

lemartinsports

Joined
Jan 4, 2022
Messages
7,473
what a wonderful write up, thank you for sharing!
i've been hesitant on texas a&m cause of their qb situation. arkansas offense isn't the strongest either but their pass rush could be a threat. also need to remember arkansas has covered at a much higher percentage than a&m has on a neutral field lately (arkansas 4-0 ats in last 4 and texas a&m 1-4 ats in last 5 neutral games)

i see a potential dog play here...

best of luck locks!!!
 

biggins

biggins

Joined
Jan 18, 2022
Messages
2,879
Well OP states there was line manipulation I’m not seeing that but that’s just me.
Like BeantownJim once chimed in your discussing line movement on a pickem game wake me when it moves significantly.

BTJ used to crack me up
 
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