Betting guide to Till-Masvidal at UFC Fight Night in London

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Mar 6, 2018
[h=1]Betting guide to Till-Masvidal at UFC Fight Night in London[/h] ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)

There aren't any UFC titles on the line in London on Saturday, but the biggest matchups on the Fight Night card carry clear implications as to who will be able to line up next as a title challenger. Each of the final three bouts on the card features matchups between ranked fighters, with a pair of key welterweight fights closing out Saturday's action.

It's a division that has been through chaos of late, with a new champion and likely top contender among the many shake-ups, but it's clear that 2019 will be chock full of opportunity for fresh faces to step up to the challenge. This card will be play a part in that process, but looking through the lens of gambling value, we're most concerned with who has the edge in the main event, and how the odds compare to that data.
[h=2]Welterweight: No. 3 Darren Till (-250) vs. No. 11 Jorge Masvidal (+200)[/h] [h=2]Fightnomics' Uber Tale Of The Tape[/h]
Last fight weight classWWWW
Analyzed minutes269 Mins90 Mins
[h=3]Standup striking offense[/h]
Total knockdown ratio
(Scored : Received)
Distance knockdown rate1.5%4.3%
Head jab accuracy33%34%
Head power accuracy36%34%
Total standup strike ratio0.90.7
[h=3]Striking defense[/h]
Total head strike defense77%86%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin")98%98%
[h=3]Wrestling and grappling[/h]
TD attempts per min standing/clinch0.200.11
Takedown accuracy58%33%
Advances per takedown/top control0.50.3
Opponent takedown attempts11022
Takedown defense80%86%
Share of total ground time in control63%55%
Submission attempts per trip to ground0.170.00


After opening as a -245 favorite, two-way action on Till briefly dropped his line to just -185 before quickly shifting back to Till being the comfortable favorite at -250, where he's remained through fight week. These two fighters are on different ends of the welterweight size spectrum. Till has famously claimed he's a middleweight fighting at welterweight, while Masvidal actually competed at lightweight before moving up a division. On paper, Till is only slightly bigger, in terms of height and reach. On fight night, however, expect him to be heavier than Masvidal.

Given that both men attempt few takedowns and also show solid takedown defense, we should expect a striking duel to play out on Saturday night. Previous fights for Masvidal and Till suggest a strong likelihood of a duel between two fighters with below-average strike ratios -- meaning there could be a lot of feeling out and moving around the cage.

Both men are accurate punchers, but of this pairing only Till has proven difficult to reach and hit while maintaining offensive accuracy. His much lower output and pace mean that he'll prefer slow, back-and-forth striking exchanges, as he's likely to get the better of such exchanges against Masvidal. Till is also the harder hitter of the two fighters, and Masvidal is giving up a sizable "youth advantage" when you compare their ages, as well as the extra years of wear and tear competing in the sport.

Despite all of this, and Masvidal having been knocked down four times in previous fights, Masvidal has yet to be finished by strikes in his lengthy runs in the UFC and Strikeforce. While signs point to Till having the striking edge in a likely striking-focused battle, Masvidal's durability and aggression add wild cards to the matchup against an opponent who was hurt badly in his last outing.
E+ recommends: The lines have run away from us on this one, leading to a pass situation for the main event. The numbers agree with Till's status as a favorite, but not at current prices. Parlay hunters might add Till into the mix, but the true value of betting the side just isn't there against such a wily and grizzled veteran like Masvidal.

At this point in fight week, totals and props have yet to be released. We'd expect the total to be on the high side, either 3.5 or 4.5 rounds. A close back-and-forth duel is likely to happen, with both men being durable enough to force extra rounds. But don't discount the possibility of a late finish, which could come if either fighter begins to time the other's entrances into exchanges.

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Mar 21, 2018
This is going to be a great night
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