Best bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Wagerallsports

Moderator
Staff member

Best bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic​

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)

Coming off a marathon playoff won by Harris English at the Travelers, the PGA Tour now heads to Detroit for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Bryson DeChambeau enters as the defending champion.

Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worthwhile this week at Detroit Golf Club?

Betting analyst Chris "The Bear" Fallica, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.


Bets to win​

Bryson DeChambeau +750; top-10 finish (+105)​

Fallica: I'm not getting too crazy this week on a course with little history. DeChambeau won here last year, appeared to overcome the meltdown on the back nine at Torrey last week at the Travelers and should again relish a course which should be a bombers paradise. I will, however, note that he has one top 10 since the WGC (a T-9 at Wells Fargo).



Patrick Reed 14-1; top-10 finish (+150), top-20 finish (-137)​

Bearman: Obviously there are going to be a lot of people on Bryson this week after he destroyed the field last year. I just can't justify it at +750. For almost double the price (+1400), you can get Reed, who finished T-5 here two years ago in the first hosting of the event. In the small sample size of that event, he was top four in shots gained total, ball striking, tee to green and approach. Since winning at Torrey Pines in January, Reed has four additional top 10s, including the Masters, the Memorial and Wells Fargo. He played well at the U.S. Open two weeks ago (T-19) and shot well enough to contend this past week at the Travelers but surprisingly struggled with his putter. Reed gained strokes against the field in approach, around the green and off the tee, gaining nearly two shots on the field tee to green. If putting was a weakness, I will chalk it up to a rare week and expect that to correct itself this week, as Reed is eighth on tour in strokes gained putting and first in overall putting and one-putt percentage. With one of the best short games in the business, Reed can contend if he strokes the ball like he has been the last few weeks.

Will Zalatoris 25-1; top-10 finish (+300)​

Fallica: No better place to potentially earn your first PGA Tour win that a course where the winning score should threaten -20 and there isn't a whole lot of trouble. Interestingly, his only two top-15 finishes in the last nine events are the PGA Championship and the Masters. But this is an event Zalatoris clearly has a big chance to win or, at the very least, post a top 10.

Jason Kokrak 28-1; top-10 finish (+300)​


Bearman: I played Kokrak two weeks ago at the U.S. Open at 60-1 and it was a big swing and a miss, as the Friday 78 ended his championship and my ticket hopes. I still love the potential with the big hitter, who is one of three two-time winners on tour this season, including a win at Colonial in May. We all saw what DeChambeau did last year here, mashing his way to leading the field in driving, but also leading the field in putting. Well, Kokrak enters the week in the top 25 in driving distance and shots gained off tee and is second in shots gained putting. He's also 32nd in hitting greens, which will be important for the barely 5,000 square foot greens. He went T-9, T-8, T-9 at Concession, API and The Players, three of the tougher events on tour, so this lesser field should be ripe for the taking. If Kokrak can match the same combo of driving distance and putting that DeChambeau did last year, he could be our first three-time winner this season.

Fallica: Kokrak's last five individual stroke play events that aren't major championships: win, T-13, T-9, T-8, T-9. I'd say the guy is in pretty good form. He should make a lot of birdies and have a shot at two wins in three weeks.

Gary Woodland 40-1; top-10 finish (+450)​

Fallica: I've been on Woodland a couple of times at a price to post a top 10/20 finish this year mainly because of him being healthy again. He posted a fifth-place finish at Wells Fargo and T-14th at Charles Schwab, so he's definitely on the right track. His deficiencies on the green should be somewhat negated by smaller greens here.

Doc Redman 50-1; top-10 finish (+450), win six-player group (+575)​


Bearman: Redman has been close to his first career win a bunch of times, most notably here two years ago when a runner-up finish that got him his tour card. He also finished runner-up three weeks ago at Palmetto and was in good shape at Cromwell last week after Friday, but a 73-71 weekend pushed him back. In the two editions of the Rocket Mortgage, Redman finished T-21 and second and was a combined 32-under par, the lowest aggregate total of anyone. Over the small sample of eight rounds, he's third in total strokes gained, seventh tee to green and 10th in putting in Detroit. He seems to like the course and, with his recent form, could be a dark horse at 50-1 this week to become the seventh first-time winner on tour this season.

Sepp Straka 66-1; top-20 finish (+335)​

Bearman: Little bit of a longer shot, but the Austrian has a few things going for him. First, he has gone T-8 and T-11 in the two Detroit events for a 31-under total, which is second-best of any golfer (Redman -32). In the two events, he ranks fourth in total shots gained, 11th tee to green and ninth off the tee. He also played well this past weekend, scoring a top-10 at TPC Cromwell with bookend 66s. Straka hasn't had the best of seasons with eight missed cuts among 26 starts, but he does have three top 10s, with a T-5 at Houston and T-8 at Corales, both weaker fields like this one in Detroit.


Props​

DeChambeau top 5-finish (+200); top-10 finish (+105)​

Bearman: I said earlier that I didn't like the +750 price, among the shortest on tour this season. But it is a totally legit price if you watched how he mashed the field last year. He led the field in driving distance, strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained putting and par-4 scoring. So while I do not want to take him at +750 vs. 150-plus golfers, he totally can win it again, probably should win it again and will likely be near the top of the leaderboard. I'm going to play him at 2-to-1 for a top 5 and at better than even money for a top 10, which might be the best play on the board this week.

Double chance: Reed or Kokrak 9-1​

Bearman: I like both their chances this week and saw the prop where I can play them vs. the field. The value isn't great here compared to playing them separately, but I see it as a fun prop to look at. As noted above, both guys can get it out there and both are in the top 10 in putting. At 9-to-1, let's roll the dice and hope Bryson doesn't repeat.

Cameron Tringale (-137) over Bubba Watson​

Bearman: My hesitation last week on Bubba was that he hadn't put four solid rounds together since October. You couldn't ignore his previous success at the Travelers, so the safe play was top 10 and top 20. Being atop the leaderboard heading into the back nine Sunday, I wondered if I played it too safe, but then it came -- Watson went +6 over the last five holes to fall all the way to T-19. So that narrative hasn't changed. He has three top-20 finishes (no top 10s) in traditional stroke-play events since October, and all three final rounds were over par. Tringale has played well here, with a T-5 in the inaugural event and a T-30 last year. I'm only laying 37 cents here vs. a possible hangover situation after the final five holes Watson had last week at his favorite non-major course.
 
Top