- Fantasy streamers are hard to find with so many No. 1 starters working on Wednesday's slate. To be honest, it's best to be patient and strike later in the week when the back end of most rotations come around again. Instead, look to fill open spots with widely available closers, such as Art Warren (6.8% rostered in ESPN leagues), Tanner Rainey (3.1% rostered), Jake Diekman (6.5%) and David Robertson (23.0%).
- Viable hitters to stream are even harder to track down. Adam Frazier (32.7%) is batting leadoff and has the platoon edge over Dallas Keuchel, making him a solid play. Frazier's teammate Eugenio Suarez (32.5%) is also someone to consider. In DFS, Suarez is more of a GPP play, while Frazier's floor works for cash games.
- Another trick on a tough slate is trying to sneak off with a stolen base or two. Surprisingly, Adalberto Mondesi is rostered in only 46.0% of ESPN leagues. Granted he's an injury risk, but when he's healthy Mondesi can be one of the most productive fantasy players. The Royals face Jordan Hicks and the Cardinals. Hicks' control is still suspect and catcher Yadier Molina isn't as adept at catching thieves compared to his salad days.
- Camden Yards has been home to quite a few slugfests over the years. It's only been a couple of games, but the renovations should temper scoring -- although perhaps less than perceived since while homers will drop, overall hits (especially doubles and triples) should increase. Even so, with Corbin Burnes and John Means on the hill, runs should be at a premium. Neither lineup makes for an attractive DFS stack, while the total favors the under since lines may not yet reflect the true impact of the left-field alterations.
Baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games
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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN's standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher's win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
| FPTS | Team | Pitcher | T | Opp | ML | O/U | W% | IP | ER | BR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.7 |
| Corbin Burnes | R | @BAL | -175 | 8.0 | 41.5% | 5.7 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 7.1 |
| 14.2 |
| Max Scherzer | R | @PHI | -105 | 8.5 | 35.3% | 5.6 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 6.9 |
| 13.9 |
| Gerrit Cole | R | TOR | -160 | 8.0 | 39.8% | 5.9 | 2.4 | 6.7 | 7.2 |
| 12.5 |
| Frankie Montas | R | @TB | +160 | 7.5 | 35.8% | 5.7 | 2.2 | 6.8 | 6.5 |
| 12.5 |
| Framber Valdez | L | @ARI | -160 | 9.0 | 55.4% | 5.6 | 2.6 | 7.6 | 6.1 |
| 12.2 |
| Clayton Kershaw | L | @MIN | -170 | 8.5 | 39.1% | 5.5 | 2.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 |
| 11.6 |
| Aaron Nola | R | NYM | -115 | 8.5 | 28.8% | 5.7 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| 11.2 |
| Sean Manaea | L | @SF | +115 | 7.5 | 30.9% | 5.4 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 5.5 |
| 11.0 |
| Robbie Ray | L | @CWS | -115 | 9.0 | 30.7% | 5.6 | 2.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 |
| 10.6 |
| Jose Berrios | R | @NYY | +140 | 8.0 | 27.7% | 5.7 | 2.5 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| 10.3 |
| Max Fried | L | WSH | -210 | 9.0 | 36.7% | 5.4 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 5.3 |
| 9.6 |
| Kyle Hendricks | R | @PIT | -130 | 8.5 | 37.5% | 5.7 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 4.8 |
| 9.4 |
| Logan Webb | R | SD | -135 | 7.5 | 24.7% | 5.1 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 5.2 |
| 8.9 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | R | @DET | -125 | 8.0 | 30.7% | 5.2 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 5.5 |
| 8.7 |
| Dallas Keuchel | L | SEA | -105 | 9.0 | 33.5% | 5.6 | 2.7 | 7.5 | 4.7 |
| 8.4 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | L | BOS | +105 | 8.0 | 27.6% | 5.4 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 5.6 |
| 8.4 |
| John Means | L | MIL | +155 | 8.0 | 20.6% | 5.3 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 4.8 |
| 8.3 |
| Shane McClanahan | L | OAK | -180 | 7.5 | 12.9% | 4.4 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| 8.1 |
| Triston McKenzie | R | @CIN | +110 | 9.5 | 20.0% | 4.6 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| 7.7 |
| Nick Lodolo | L | CLE | -130 | 9.5 | 20.8% | 4.8 | 2.5 | 6.4 | 5.0 |
| 7.0 |
| Merrill Kelly | R | HOU | +140 | 9.0 | 25.4% | 5.4 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 5.2 |
| 6.6 |
| Josiah Gray | R | @ATL | +180 | 9.0 | 19.5% | 5.1 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 5.2 |
| 6.4 |
| Zach Thompson | R | CHC | +110 | 8.5 | 12.1% | 4.2 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| 5.9 |
| Chris Paddack | R | LAD | +150 | 8.5 | 16.0% | 4.7 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 4.6 |
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.- Tommy Pham (CIN, LF -- 50%) vs. Triston McKenzie
- Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF -- 46%) at Means
- Yoshi Tsutsugo (PIT, 1B -- 3%) vs. Kyle Hendricks
- Steven Kwan (CLE, CF -- 2%) at Nick Lodolo
- Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B -- 1%) vs. Hendricks
- Nick Madrigal (CHC, 2B -- 49%) at Zach Thompson
- Abraham Toro (SEA, 2B -- 2%) at Keuchel
- Andrew Vaughn (CHW, LF -- 34%) vs. Robbie Ray
- Rafael Ortega (CHC, CF -- 2%) at Thompson
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday
- Luke Voit (SD, 1B -- 58%) at Logan Webb
- Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B -- 92%) at Gerrit Cole
- Gary Sanchez (MIN, C -- 58%) vs. Clayton Kershaw
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR, LF -- 92%) at Cole
- Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 63%) vs. Kershaw
- Alex Kirilloff (MIN, 1B -- 61%) vs. Kershaw
- Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 77%) vs. Nathan Eovaldi
- Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B -- 71%) vs. Eovaldi
- Austin Hays (BAL, LF -- 62%) vs. Burnes
- Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B -- 79%) at Aaron Nola
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
- It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch.
- Gray has relied on his secondary pitches 7.1% more often this year (55%) than he did last year (47.9%).
- The wind projects to be blowing in from rightfield at 10.4 mph in this game, the second-best of the day for hurlers.
- Gray has been given a below-average leash since the start of last year, throwing 8.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
- Gray's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (92.43 mph) below where it was last year (93.92 mph).
- Truist Park sits at the second-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.
Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games
Everything you need to know to place your MLB bets and set your fantasy baseball lineups for Wednesday, April 13.
www.espn.com
Max Scherzer Stats, News, Bio | ESPN
Latest on New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN
www.espn.com
Aaron Nola Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN
View the full batter vs. pitching stats of Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Aaron Nola on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.
www.espn.com
Sean Manaea Batter vs Pitching Stats | ESPN
Latest on San Diego Padres starting pitcher Sean Manaea including batter vs. pitcher matchup on ESPN
www.espn.com
Robbie Ray Batter vs Pitching Stats | ESPN
Latest on Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Robbie Ray including batter vs. pitcher matchup on ESPN
www.espn.com
Jose Berrios Batter vs Pitching Stats | ESPN
Latest on Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios including batter vs. pitcher matchup on ESPN
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Max Fried Batter vs Pitching Stats | ESPN
Latest on Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried including batter vs. pitcher matchup on ESPN
www.espn.com
Kyle Hendricks Batter vs Pitching Stats | ESPN
Latest on Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks including batter vs. pitcher matchup on ESPN
www.espn.com
Velocity increases
Why do I think velocity increases are more actionable than velocity decreases? I think it's probably because there just isn't much about someone throwing harder that would appear to be flukey, whereas there are some reasons for a pitcher's velocity being down that wouldn't necessarily be a reason for concern. Whereas an increase in velocity is almost always a good thing – though not necessarily something that should or will change my perception of a player.Here are the pitchers who added at least 1.5 mph to their average fastball velocity from the first weekend of action among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2021:
| Name | 2022 | 2021 | DIFF |
| Mitch Keller | 96.4 | 93.9 | 2.5 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 97.8 | 95.7 | 2.1 |
| Carlos Rodon | 97.4 | 95.4 | 2 |
| Zach Davies | 89.8 | 88 | 1.8 |
| Tylor Megill | 96.2 | 94.7 | 1.5 |
| Merrill Kelly | 93.3 | 91.8 | 1.5 |
Keller's velocity increase was what we expected after offseason reports and what we saw in spring training, but it's a bit concerning that he still just wasn't all that impressive. He got four strikeouts among 20 batters faced, with decent but unspectacular whiff rates on baseball all of his pitches. I'm still worried he's too hittable even when he's touching 99 mph, and his track record makes it so I don't have a super-long leash for him. The increased velocity does give him a higher margin for error, and it's not like he got hit hard in that first start – 86.4 mph average exit velocity – despite the four runs in four innings, so I'll hold him.
Megill and Kelly are the two I'm most interested in adding. Both have been serviceable in the past, so the hope is they can become something more than serviceable now. Megill is the priority given that he already had an above-average strikeout rate and 3.87 xERA in 2021, but Kelley now has 20 strikeouts to two walks in 11 innings since the start of spring training. His changeup garnered seven swings and misses on 17 pitches and could play up with the added velocity. Megill looks like a top-60, maybe top-50 pitcher, and Kelly is worth adding in all leagues too.
Velocity decreases
When it comes to velocity drops, I'm more willing to give the benefit doubt this year than normal given the shortened spring training. It's possible some guys just didn't have a chance to get fully up to speed, and I've seen some beat writers speculate that this is the point in the spring calendar where a lot of pitchers are working through dead arm as they ramp up. Add in that the weather is colder and you can definitely give guys the benefit of the doubt.With that in mind, here are the pitchers whose average fastball velocity is down at least 1.5 mph from last season:
| Name | 2022 | 2021 | DIFF |
| Robbie Ray | 92.1 | 94.8 | -2.7 |
| Michael Kopech | 95.3 | 97.4 | -2.1 |
| Shane Bieber | 90.7 | 92.8 | -2.1 |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | 91.3 | 93.3 | -2 |
| Nick Pivetta | 93 | 94.8 | -1.8 |
| Zach Plesac | 91.2 | 92.9 | -1.7 |
| Josiah Gray | 93.1 | 94.6 | -1.5 |
| Cal Quantrill | 92.8 | 94.3 | -1.5 |
Similarly, Bieber tends to get hit pretty hard when he does tend to get hit, so his velocity dip is especially disconcerting. He'll still be able to rely on his excellent breaking balls for whiffs even if the fastball velocity is down, but if he's throwing in the low 90s, that could make his already middling fastball even worse. And, in Bieber's case, his velocity was already down the last time we saw him late in 2021 as he was coming back from a shoulder injury. If that is still an issue after an entire offseason, that would be a big red flag.
Ultimately, as I said, I'm willing to give guys the benefit of the doubt with early velocity dips. However, that doesn't mean I'm willing to overlook them entirely. For instance, if Bieber is still averaging around 90 mph with his fastball three starts from now, I'll be very concerned; ditto for Ray at 92. It's not that neither can be effective at that level, but it makes it a lot harder to pull off. The margin for error is simply slimmer with less velocity, and that's true for nearly all pitchers.
Wagerallsports
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Thanks for the info Bigs
parrothead
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Thank you for all the great information!
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