At risk: $8350 payout: $120K (When/if do I cashout?)

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biprob

biprob

Joined
Jan 22, 2022
Messages
1,005
Now it's getting a little more serious with Carlos/Iga in the Qfs with the current cashout at $15,535 (I'll just post the top 2 tickets [16 total 🎫 ] for each site for brevity purposes with GSW already a winner since that's a WCF bet) If Alcaraz loses to Novak in the SFs like most expect (not me however), I'd have no choice but to blame myself for not cashing out so this is a brutally hard decision one way or the other. I'll keep updating the new cashout amount each day going forward & everybody's feedback would be greatly appreciated.


Screenshot_20220530-151648.jpgScreenshot_20220530-151759_FanDuel Sportsbook.jpgScreenshot_20220530-151835_FanDuel Sportsbook.jpg
 

Enikk

Enikk

Joined
Oct 31, 2021
Messages
12,509
Ideally, you don't cash anything out and get a loan and hedge some with a live Joker. Joker is known to lose 1st set. Just need the kid come out with confidence which is tough because with no Med or Greek on other side and just Cilic/Ruud the elites are gone and he knows this is the match. Perfect world he does not meet Joker and Rafa passes the clay torch to him. I don't see Rafa beating the kid after a Joker match.

Iga is stud but that 1st set is not something I wanted to see. I haven't looked at that bracket but you need Coco and Daria gone. I would not want to face either.
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
10,276
No way. Not at that price. too many big name out. Have to ride at least into next round. They are paying peanuts on the dollar right now
If Alcaraz gets into the SF, which he’s near -500 to do. I wonder how much the CashOuts rise to Dougy? Any idea? Double? More than double?
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
10,276
I’m like Enikk. I can’t believe with Iga now -300 to win the whole thing, GSW a winner and Alcaraz basically second favorite because Nadal to Novak will lose before he does, the Cash Outs are so low
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
10,276
Thanks Bubbles, actually got a 2nd job in Feb. just to finance this bet each wk. so I can't possibly overstate how much losing it would suck.
That being the case I would probably let Alcaraz win his next match and then cash out. At least enough to get maybe 7 or 8k back? In theory you could cash out 1/3 of the wagers to get 8k and freeroll the rest? Or just cash everything out but maybe one smallish bet and get a nice payday. You’ve done all the heavy lifting. Why risk it all? I’ve done that before and felt horrible after
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
10,276
Really tough to cash out any amount now Bobby cuz if I put that back into the original bet I would only get back a fraction of the original payout. At this point I either CO every bet or just let it ride.
I just saw this. I’d probably let Alcaraz play his next match and win and then cash out if it were me
 

biprob

biprob

Joined
Jan 22, 2022
Messages
1,005
That being the case I would probably let Alcaraz win his next match and then cash out. At least enough to get maybe 7 or 8k back? In theory you could cash out 1/3 of the wagers to get 8k and freeroll the rest? Or just cash everything out but maybe one smallish bet and get a nice payday. You’ve done all the heavy lifting. Why risk it all? I’ve done that before and felt horrible after
Honestly if I was working one job I would be a lot more conservative & do as you suggest. These are 2 easy security gigs, (1100 wk/total) with the gameplan from the start being if I win the 120K, putting 100K in the bank & leaving the remaining 20K to bet with & quitting the 2nd job). Still want to be smart & not pass up a solid CO to avoid having nothing to show for it, but it has to be the right amount.
 
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RudyRuder

RudyRuder

Joined
Oct 23, 2021
Messages
5,545
I work 16 hrs both Sat & Sun so I'm gonna go out of my way to avoid bad news at work. Easier to deal with once I get home.
i think you should cash out very soon

i know your job and thats alot of cash man


your are exactly like me,............or im exactly like you........however you want to say it

even if you win 100k, youre going to lose it
 

biprob

biprob

Joined
Jan 22, 2022
Messages
1,005
i think you should cash out very soon

i know your job and thats alot of cash man


your are exactly like me,............or im exactly like you........however you want to say it

even if you win 100k, youre going to lose it
What's the point of cashing out 15K to 20K if you're saying I'm gonna lose 100K anyway if I let it ride & win. If I'm just gonna lose whatever amount, might as well go for the big score, right?
 

Enikk

Enikk

Joined
Oct 31, 2021
Messages
12,509
You don't invest 10k to win 120K and not even quadruple your cash when most the threats are gone. Cash out isn't even either. That would be a terrible decision. 40-50K than have to seriously consider. Anything less than no way. To much invested
 
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