Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury: Best Bet, Betting Odds, & Analysis

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YouTube personality Jake Paul celebrates after knocking out former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley on December 18, 2021. Photo by CHANDAN KHANNA / AFP

Paul vs. Fury: The Betting Pick  

Boxing Pick: Jake Paul ML (-161) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review

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Jake Paul ML (-161)
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Whether you love or hate him, Jake Paul is stepping back into the squared circle this weekend, and this time around, he’ll be facing a “real” boxer in Tommy Fury – the brother of heavyweight pound-for-pound greatest, Tyson Fury.   

Continue reading for our in-depth analysis, taking a first look at this highly anticipated cruiserweight bout between Jake Paul and Tommy Fury, including updated odds, free expert boxing betting picks, and predictions. 

Boxing enthusiasts who wish to wager on this top boxing matchup should be sure to check out the best US betting sites available in order to make secure wagers in your own home state. 

Paul vs. Fury Information  

  • When: Sunday, February 26, 2023 – 02:00 PM EST   
  • Where: Diriyah Arena
  • Weight Class: 8-Rounds, Cruiserweight  
  • Watch It: PPV – ESPN+  
  • Moneyline Betting Probability: Paul – 61.7% (-161 Everygame) vs. Fury – 40.8% (+145 BetOnline)

Paul vs. Fury Best Bet   

Jake Paul Moneyline Reasoning   

The Jake Paul team has been perfect at selecting opponents for their fighter thus far, and we believe they’re continuing a good job by choosing Tommy Fury as the first “real” boxer Jake will challenge.  

Size, power, big-fight experience, and a lack of pressure all favor Paul. Fury hasn’t fought anybody with the power or hunger of Jake Paul, and this will be displayed on Sunday when Fury wilts under the big lights to an athletic and powerful puncher.  

  • Confidence Rating: 4/5  

Fighter Profiles  

Jake “The Problem Child” Paul  

Naysayers continue to discredit the fighting career of YouTube and social media sensation Jake Paul. But as the Ohio native drifted from fighting influencers to sports stars and retired MMA fighters, the critics could be silenced now that he’s facing an actual boxer.  

At the very least, Paul’s presence within the sport has heavily boosted its popularity.

And if you can guarantee one factor heading into Sunday’s showcase bout, it’s that the WBC will be praying for Paul’s success as they’d love nothing more than to tie a green and gold belt around his waist to reinvigorate boxing’s fashionableness further.  

Moving Into the WBC World Rankings   

This contest won’t be contented with a championship on the line; however, the WBC has announced they’d place Paul in their world rankings should he emerge victorious.  

It’s starting to feel like a win-win situation for Paul. Considering he can go 7-0 with one win over a pro boxer and zero wins over world-ranked opposition.

Whereas Fury has the weight of the world on his shoulders, having never fought eight rounds nor in front of so many eyes with a huge spotlight on his performance as the brother of the heavyweight legend Tyson Fury.    

Jake Paul Boxing Accomplishments 

  • Undefeated in the ring (6-0)  
  • Brought a new generation of fans to the sport     

Boxing Pick: Jake Paul ML (-161) at Everygame

Tommy Fury 

The brother of WBC heavyweight champion Tyson Fury has fought in eight professional bouts thus far and has won them all.  

While most critics highlight Fury's journeyman opponents, this isn’t a unique place for young up-and-coming boxers.

And unfortunately for Tommy, the Fury name has produced unfair expectations on the youngster, including a must-win situation for his fight against a “non-boxer” in Jake Paul.      

A Tough Test for Tommy   

Tommy Fury is most known in the United Kingdom for his appearance on the Love Island TV show. Without his reality television show presence and surname, he’d be a non-existent name in professional boxing, as most young prospects generally are.  

The consensus is that Paul is taking a huge step up in competition, but the same can be said for Fury. The Englishman has fought an embarrassing level of opposition:  

  • Scott Williams (0-23 pro record)  
  • Genadij Krajevskij (0-46 pro record)  

It can even be argued Paul has competed against tougher fighters in general.

And although they aren’t known as professional boxers, successes over MMA legends Anderson Silva and Tyron Woodley hold much more weight than the names Fury has faced during his pro career.  

Tommy Fury Boxing Accomplishments 

  • Undefeated as a professional boxer (8-0)     

Best Available Odds: Tommy Fury ML (+145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Paul vs. Fury: The Analysis  

Jake Paul’s Path to Victory

Instead of analyzing Paul's overall boxing skillset, which is naturally basic due to his lack of years in the ring, we must look at the Paul team and how they’ve meticulously directed his so-called boxing career.  

Team Paul has been desperate for this fight and following two canceled bouts with Fury, the former YouTuber’s first test against an officially ranked boxer has finally surfaced. This wasn’t by chance, it was by design, and they had seen many flaws in Fury’s game that could favor Paul.  

Paul isn’t technically sound, but he will be the power puncher in this fight. His footwork, head movement, and ring IQ is levels behind many pro boxers. Still, his cardio, overall physique, and experience in front of large crowds can undoubtedly threaten Fury.  

Tommy Fury’s Path to Victory  

Fury’s No.1 advantage heading into Sunday’s war is, without question, the experience of boxing since a young age alongside the Fury family and having the in-ring technical skills to outwit a lower level of competition.  

Not only will he be the first professional boxer that Paul has faced, but Fury will be three years his opponent's senior, a huge difference maker to the aging fighters the Ohio native has fought thus far.   

The Betting Trends & Stats  

  • Jake Paul has a knockout rate of 66.67%   
  • Tommy Fury has averaged a 50% knockout rate during his career  

Paul vs. Fury Best Bet Formula: Paul Moneyline (-161)   

The available boxing odds at Bookmakers Review are slowly but surely, receiving the majority of the betting action on Jake Paul as the moneyline price steadily lowers in value.  

As crazy as it sounds, Fury must fight the perfect fight to mitigate the dangers he’ll face from Paul.

It’s difficult to envision Fury bouncing around the outside, popping the jab all night long to win a decision without receiving damaging shots from the larger, more powerful puncher in Paul.   

Boxing Pick: Jake Paul ML (-161) at Everygame

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.