Canelo vs. Golovkin Betting Preview, Predictions, Odds and Picks

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Boxers Canelo Alvarez (L) and Gennady Golovkin (R) face off during a press conference. Dustin Satloff/Getty Images/AFP.

The eagerly anticipated trilogy bout between Canelo Alvarez and his long-standing rival Gennady Golovkin is taking place this weekend.

The undisputed super middleweight championship will be on the line as GGG seeks redemption after losing the first and drawing the second meeting with the Mexican champion.

Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Canelo vs. GGG III, including updated boxing odds and our free expert boxing betting picks.

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Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin III

Undisputed Super Middleweight Bout Main Event

Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at T-Mobile Arena

Canelo Alvarez

  • Professional Record: 57-2-2 (39 KOs, 2 decisions)
  • Age: 32
  • Born: Jalisco, Mexico
  • Height: 6'8"
  • Reach: 70.5"
  • Stance: Orthodox

Standing at 5'8" tall, the undisputed super-middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez doesn’t require much introduction. Still, he was notably riding a 14-fight win streak before stepping up to the light heavyweight elite and dropping a unanimous decision to Dimitry Bivol in his last fight.

Can we judge Canelo on this performance? Not really… the size discrepancy between his frame and that of most light heavyweights is a testament to his skill level.

Outside of the Bivol loss, his singular career loss to Floyd Mayweather burnt Alvarez's desire to take his career to the next level and hold titles in multiple weight classes.

Still, the pound-for-pound king has since reignited this passion for gold in alternate divisions, but this weekend, he’s returning to the weight class where he’s dominated.

The Mount Rushmore of Boxing

Alvarez's technical boxing ability, offensively and defensively, has gifted fight fans with one of the most memorable fighters in combat sports history.

Canelo has been an unstoppable force in boxing that only one of the greatest boxer's ever, Floyd Mayweather, could overcome.

As the fighting pride of Mexico, Canelo has obtained championships in multiple divisions and could retire at any moment, knowing that his name is already etched into the history books.

However, Canelo has no quit, as he continues to build a legacy that will be difficult for most to match.

Canelo Alvarez's Boxing Accomplishments

  • Championship winner in four weight classes
  • Unified champion in three weight classes
  • The first ever undisputed champion at super middleweight

Canelo Alvarez Best Available Odds: (-500) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Gennady Golovkin

  • (18-0, 13 KOs)
  • Professional Record: 42-1-1 (37 KOs, 5 decisions)
  • Age: 40
  • Born: Kazakh SSR, Soviet Union
  • Height: 5'10"
  • Reach: 70.0"
  • Stance: Orthodox

Since losing his championships to Canelo Alvarez in a controversial split decision, the former No.1 ranked middleweight on the planet has been quieter than he once was.

However, it’s evident that a burning desire to rectify his only career defeat has brought the 40-year-old back to the one fight that got away.

The rubber match with Canelo drew mass criticism; boxing critics and media believed that GGG was stolen from the victory.

Still, GGG didn’t ponder the decision and got himself some gold from Sergiy Derevyanchenko in return.

Time Away From the Ring

This was, however, followed by a 16-month layoff. GGG has since defended his IBF and IBO titles while taking the WBA Super middleweight strap from Ryota Murata, but we must recognize that his activity is incomparable to Alvarez and the level of competition.

GGG was regarded as the best middleweight boxer of his generation. The trilogy bout with Alvarez is a fight that could determine the best middleweight in boxing history, but has his prime fighting years passed him by?

Gennady Golovkin Best Available Odds: (+405) at GTBets (visit our GTBets Review)

Canelo vs. GGG III Breakdown and Analysis

How Can Canelo Beat GGG?

By doing what Canelo knows best, the pressure! When the opponents of Canelo lose focus, overexert themselves, and have their energy zapped, their night often ends before it had a chance to begin.

Defensive movement with a high guard alongside a lay and prey style, where he loves to counterstrike. He has regularly dealt with a height and reach disadvantage, but fortunately for the Mexican, some of his best offensive striking stems from his body shots and combinations.

How Can GGG Defeat Canelo?

Aged 40, GGG isn’t getting any younger. He will need to understand that his activity has been significantly lower since the previous meeting with Canelo. When we compare both fighters, it's obvious that Canelo has gained more overall.

Knowing that Canelo excels as a counterpuncher makes it difficult for GGG to unleash too much aggression, and he’ll be conscious of his opponent's defensive movements so well.

In reality, outside of a flash KO, I find it difficult to envision a path to victory for GGG.

Canelo vs. Golovkin Betting Picks and Odds

The available odds at top-rated sportsbooks are fair, and some will see a lot of value in Canelo’s moneyline at -500.

I expect Alvarez to intimidate GGG with his speed and body strikes. We watched Murata take advantage of Golovkin’s lack of body defense; this doesn’t bode well for somebody facing one of the best body strikers in the game.

Canelo's skilled combinations and defensive attributes will dictate the trilogy bout, and I believe GGG had his best chance of winning this fight in the past. Time has passed, Canelo has leveled up, and I expect him to end this bout with a unanimous decision victory.

Boxing Pick: Over 10 ½ Rounds (-200) [2.00u returns 1u profit] at Heritage (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.