Wild Card Weekend Last Chance Value Picks: This Will Be Fun! (Archive)
NFL Pick: Jaguars +2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
It is on to the Super Wild Card weekend with six battles over three days to make your NFL picks. We have found three contests that seem to make the most value against the betting odds.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, January 14, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at TIAA Bank Field
The first game of the weekend features No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (10-7, 11-5-1 ATS) at No. 4 Jacksonville (9-8, 8-9 ATS). These teams met way back on Sept. 25 and the Chargers were what seemed like a deserving 6.5-point home favorite.
The Bolts had lost a 27-24 heartbreaker at Kansas City on the prior Thursday and had ample time to let that loss go. The Jaguars were coming off a 24-0 home shutout against what was thought to be a good Indianapolis squad, but at that point, Jacksonville was not known for stringing together victories.
Jacksonville came to play and the Chargers didn’t and L.A. was blasted 38-10. At this time it doesn’t appear that outcome will have much relevance to this week’s matchup.
The Jaguars have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and the last time they hosted a wild-card game was five years ago. The Chargers are on a 4-1 (3-1-1 ATS) roll of their own, dropping a meaningless matchup at Denver last week.
Jacksonville Running Game The Difference
Coach Doug Pederson might not be a great head coach but his general instincts are good. With a young team and quarterback still learning, committing to run with Travis Etienne Jr. took some of the pressure off Trevor Lawrence. When Jacksonville has 25 or more rushing attempts they are 7-3 SU.
The Chargers by design seem not to be that concerned about having the No. 28 rush defense. Their thinking seems to be don’t give up big plays in the pass and run, look to get third down stops, and make the opponent drive the length of the field by primarily running, figuring they’ll make a mistake.
It is hard to ignore that the Bolts are 5-4 and 7-2 ATS on the road, but that strategy with a stubborn head coach who takes foolish chances can be had. Coach Pederson is excellent in his role with a 14-4 ATS record as an underdog, winning those 18 contests by 5.1 PPG.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24 – Chargers 23
NFL Pick: Jaguars +2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 04:30 PM EST U.S. Bank Stadium
With every Wild Card clash a rematch, this is another that is fascinating. The New York Giants (9-7-1, 13-4 ATS) were trailing Minnesota (13-4, 7-9-1 ATS) on Christmas Eve 24-16 with only three minutes remaining, when they attacked the NFL’s worst pass defense and not only scored a touchdown but got the two-point conversion to tie.
The only problem was this was accomplished in 59 seconds and the Vikings got the ball back and ended up kicking a long field goal to win 27-24 as 4.5-point favorites with no time left on the clock.
New York’s run defense is as poor as the Chargers, ranked one spot higher at 27th, yet held Minnesota to 83 yards in the previous meeting and outgained the Vikings by 92 yards despite having a -2 turnover margin.
Vikings Magical and Lucky Season Ends at Home
There are various ways to look at Minnesota, they won 13 times, yet, they still gave up more points than they scored (-3). That is not a good omen.
The other way to view the Vikes is they were 11-0 in one score outcomes and when they failed, they did so in spectacular fashion (-89 in four defeats). Minnesota was the first team ever to win 12 times in the NFL and have a negative point differential.
Though the Giants passing game with QB Daniel Jones won’t remind anyone of Kansas City, it can perform much better against the Vikings’ pathetic pass defense. If New York can put together a clean game, with no turnovers and not take foolish penalties, they can put pressure on Kirk Cousins and crew at home.
With the G-Men 7-1 ATS on the road this year and 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record, they upset the Vikes on the road.
Score Prediction: Giants 27 – Vikings 25
NFL Pick: Giants +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, January 16, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium
I was originally going to use Buffalo in this article against the NFL odds, but when the line jumped from -9.5 to -13, though the Bills will still likely be the right choice, in principle, there is no value in backing them.
With that, let’s head to Monday with a confusing contest. Tampa Bay is the NFC South Division winner with an 8-9 record. That is flat-out horrible for a team that underperformed and was so poorly coached.
At points this year, Dallas played and looked as good as any team in the NFL. Then, as the Cowboys do, they were 2-2 SU in their last four contests and 2-3 ATS in their final five. In those five tilts, Dallas generated 12 turnovers, which in theory should have meant a 5-0 ATS record. One problem, the Cowboys’ offense gave the ball away 11 times themselves, negating that edge.
So Now What For This NFC Clash
Tampa Bay is last in rushing in the league this year and third in passing. That leaves them 25th in scoring at 18.4 PPG, though they were better in their last three outings at 22 PPG. The Bucs' defense is not domineering like when they won the Super Bowl two years ago, nevertheless, 21.1 PPG is above average.
The term – Wild Card – fits Dak Prescott, who tied for the most interceptions (15) in only 12 games played. If he’s on, Dallas can win and cover. If not, Prescott invites the Tampa Bay crowd and the team to stay in this matchup.
Just not seeing the Cowboys whipping the Bucs and being able to use them going past the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7 offers value on the Brady Bunch. On the season Dallas only had four skirmishes that went past 50 total points and Tampa Bay half that at two. That leads to our same game teaser picks.
And don't forget, Floridians can bet these teaser picks at any of the top Florida betting sites.
Teaser Picks
- Buccaneers: +2.5 to +8.5
- Under: 45.5 to 51.5
Score Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Buccaneers 20
NFL Pick: Two-Legged 6-Point Teaser (-120) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.