White Sox ML(+115)
White Sox vs. Astros Free MLB Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
A rematch of the 2005 World Series and potential AL playoff preview this year continues on Saturday’s sports betting fixture in Houston where the Astros butt heads with the Chicago White Sox.
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, June 19, 2021 – 07:15 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
A quick glance at Thursday’s MLB scores shows Houston drawing first blood in the long set with a 10-2 decision in the opener. The Astros took a 3-0 lead in the first and never looked back as Jose Urquidy and a pair of relievers kept Chicago hitters at bay. It was the first meeting between the two since August 2019, the final going ‘over’ the total on Houston’s side of the scoreboard alone after four of the previous five matchups at Minute Maid Park stayed ‘under.’
While the series features two of the top off offenses in the American League, it also includes some tasty pitching matchups throughout the weekend. Saturday’s third game finds Lance Lynn (7-2, 1.51) on the bump for the White Sox opposite the Astros’ Framber Valdez (3-0, 1.42), and BetOnline is carrying Houston -125 with an 8-run total.
Bats Have Been Quiet with Lynn on Mound Recently
Chicago won six of seven before beginning this road trip that will take the White Sox to Pittsburgh next. The White Sox just recently suffered the loss of Nick Madrigal for the remainder of the season due to a severe hamstring injury, and will shuttle Leury Garcia and Danny Mendick in at second base in his absence.
With a little help from his offense, Lynn could already be a 10-game winner. Despite owning the third-best ERA in the majors, Chicago has only managed to win seven of Lynn’s dozen starts, leaving White Sox backers following him at the best sportsbooks barely in the black. The lack of scoring has been especially noticeable his last six assignments, Chicago splitting those contests while scoring just 3.00 RPG, a full two runs below their season clip.
Lynn faced the Astros five times the past two seasons while he was with the Texas Rangers, and lost all five assignments while pitching to a bloated 7.16 ERA across 32+ innings. One of those was a real ugly effort at Arlington’s new park in his final start for Texas last season (5.2 IP, 9 ER). In the three starts at Minute Maid Park, all in 2019, Lynn worked seven innings each time and allowed 11 earned runs total (4.71 ERA).
‘Stros Missing Bregman, Tucker from Lineup
Houston has been enjoying June with an 11-4 record this month. The Astros have lost ground in the AL West race, however, to an Oakland squad that has been even hotter. Like Chicago, Houston went into this series with a couple of new injuries, losing Alex Bregman (quad strain) and Kyle Tucker (virus) to the injured list. Abraham Toro was recalled to take Bregman’s place at third, and enjoyed a 4-RBI evening on Thursday.
Reports during spring training suggested Valdez might be out for the season due to a fractured finger suffered in his first exhibition appearance. The southpaw is now about to make his fourth start since returning from the injured list, and is fast becoming a favorite among baseball bettors. He was a -150 favorite on the MLB betting odds last weekend in Minnesota, and allowed just one earned run over seven innings in an easy 14-3 rout of the Twins.
Valdez is making his first career start against the White Sox, his only experience against Chicago being a long relief outing in May 2019. He owns a 3.26 ERA over the course of 104.2 career innings at Minute Maid, a credit to Valdez’s penchant for making batters hit ground balls. Valdez has faced 102 hitters this season, and half of them have hit the ball on the turf.
Umpire Notes, Final Thoughts & A Free Pick
Alex Tosi, who is filling in for Chris Guccione on Mark Wegner’s crew, is in line to call balls and strikes on Saturday. It’s just the second plate assignment for the young rover this season, and only the 14th of Tosi’s career. His lone appearance at the dish in 2021 was an ‘over’ winner, leaving Tosi 7-6 O/U since making his big league debut in 2019.
With game-time temps still tickling 90° on the thermometer, the lid will be on the Juice Box Saturday evening. Coming up with a free MLB pick a day in advance is always a little tougher, and especially so this time since my gut tells me there is going to be some discord between the two clubs Friday night. My money’s on Lynn and the Pale Hose in this one.
Free MLB Pick: White Sox +115 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.