The White Sox haven’t played meaningful baseball in quite some time and will be immediately thrust into the fire when they visit Houston to take on the Astros in Game 1 of the ALDS on Thursday afternoon. Lance Lynn will take the ball to get things started, opposed by Lance McCullers in a battle of savvy righties. Both men enter with reasonably good form and will have to face some of the most talented lineups out there.
With the stage set, let’s get into who wins this game so let’s take a look at the MLB odds at the top sportsbooks.
Thursday, October 07, 2021 – 04:07 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
It seems the modern-day sinker-baller is becoming a more and more common sight, and Chicago will have its hands full with yet another one in McCullers. Luckily, that’s been a point of strength for the south-siders this season.
The White Sox ranked sixth in baseball this season with 2.14 weighted runs per 100 sinkers — a number that separates them from the seventh-place team, Washington, by a considerable margin and from the eighth-place Blue Jays by an even bigger one.
This should help key an offense that’s needed a little jolt of late. The White Sox ranked 11th in wRC+ in the second half of the season, striking out 24.9% of the time and walking in just 8.4% of plate appearances. These aren’t good numbers, and it’s fair to wonder what this team’s offensive production would be without so many strikeouts.
A .171 ISO left a lot to be desired, as well. The White Sox have been even worse than those marks since the start of September with a 98 wRC+ and a 25.8% strikeout rate, but it’s also important to remember once again that this lineup really had nothing to play for on a nightly basis, leading their division by double digits for the majority of the second half.
Maybe the Sox can find some runs, which would be great for starter Lance Lynn. He hasn’t quite been himself in the second half, pitching to a 3.66 ERA with some clunkers in there, including a seven-run nightmare just two turns ago. This came after he posted a 1.99 ERA in the first half. The saving grace here is that most of this stemmed from a bad August, and Lynn pulled it back a bit in the final month-plus of the season.
Speaking of clunkers, the Astros are going to be very excited to get another shot at Lynn, who they scored six runs off of in just four innings back a few months ago. In that outing, they reached base nine times, even enjoying a wild pitch in the midst of it. In general, the Astros have dominated the White Sox this season with five wins in seven tries, though the White Sox did win the two most recent outings by a combined score of 14-1.
Like the White Sox, this offense also crashed and burned down the stretch. In September and October, the Astros ranked all the way down in 25th place in wRC+ and even reached the very bottom of baseball at different times. A 19.7% strikeout rate was right in line with what they’ve been able to do so well all year, but Houston’s .155 ISO illustrates how awful it has been in the power department.
Then, there’s Lance McCullers and his 3.39 xERA here. He has been lights out, particularly in the expected stats, though he’s given up a lot of hard contact at 40.7%. With that said, he’s been great down the stretch with a 3.00 ERA in September after a 3.12 ERA in August.
In a game that seems too close to call, I think we could see our first win by a road team this postseason. Lynn has been even better than McCullers this year despite a few scattered bad outings, and with the White Sox’s great numbers against sinkers, they should be well-positioned here so consider them for your MLB pick of the day.
MLB Pick: White Sox ML (+121) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.