After taking it on the chin during Thursday’s Game 1 in Houston, the White Sox will be out for revenge in Game 2 on Friday. To help, they’ll send their ace to the mound in Lucas Giolito, opposing left-hander Framber Valdez.
Both of these pitchers have a great pedigree, and it’ll surely prove to be a popcorn-inspired affair to kick off a four-game slate in the major leagues. With that said, who wins this game? Is it too close to call? With the stage set, let’s get into who wins this game so let’s take a look at the MLB odds at the top sportsbooks.
Friday, October 08, 2021 – 02:07 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Game 1 was a sorely disappointing one for the White Sox, who were held scoreless through eight innings and hitless through three. They wilted in the face of Lance McCullers, a pitcher who had previously dominated them this year, and Lance Lynn’s demons came back in Houston, where he’s never pitched well. While seeing Chicago collect seven hits to Houston’s 10 seems encouraging, these mainly came late in the game when the outcome wasn’t in question.
Now comes a left-handed pitcher, and the White Sox will surely be licking their chops. They ranked fourth in wRC+ against southpaws this year, though they did fan in 24% of plate appearances. A .177 ISO is pedestrian, as are 53 home runs. It was a .261 average that kept this team afloat in the split. The White Sox will also be hoping their success against left-handers keeps them afloat in this five-game series.
Lucas Giolito will aim to get the White Sox on the board as well, and he enters with strong numbers on the season. He saw a dip in his strikeout rate by 5%, but he came back with another solid 3.53 ERA and 3.27 xERA in 2021. One particularly interesting number for Giolito is his numbers in day games.
He’s 6-6 with a 4.31 ERA in those situations, giving up 12 home runs in those 12 starts. For whatever reason, when he sees daylight, he can’t pitch anymore.
The White Sox bullpen also deserves criticism here. Reynaldo Lopez let two inherited runners score and allowed another on a home run, and Garrett Crochey allowed three hits in an inning of work. Those are supposed to be two more high-leverage arms for Chicago, so it’s discouraging to see that.
Framber Valdez is one of these pitchers that makes no sense. He allows hard contact at an extremely high clip — 44.4% — and doesn’t strike out many hitters at just 21.9%. It’s his prowess with ground balls that allows him to allow so much hard-hit contact, but it also always feels like a disaster waiting to happen. He could do well to strike out more hitters as a sinker-baller, like Frankie Montas, to offset the hard contact.
Still, he’s been one of the better pitchers the Astros have on the roster, pitching to a sparkling 3.14 ERA this year.
Hard-hit balls and walks are going to be a concern here, though it helps that the White Sox have a 44.7% ground ball rate against left-handers, making it easy to see a path to another dominant outing.
The Astros really didn’t need much offense on Thursday with the way Lance McCullers was throwing, but it helped to get a big homer from Yordan Alvarez and 10 hits in total. The nine strikeouts on the day were slightly concerning, but the number of baserunners helps offset that.
The White Sox are ready to burst out at the plate against a lefty, and Giolito is surely ready to give up some runs in yet another day game. This leads me to the Over 8 runs here at a very decent price. I’m not completely sold on the White Sox winning here, but it does feel like they’ll make the Astros sweat a little bit. At that point, Houston’s offense should roar back so let’s bank on that for our daily MLB pick.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.