Virginia vs. Duke Free NCAA Basketball Picks for February 7 (Archive)
The Duke Blue Devils have been dominating teams in the ACC this season. Will Duke cover the double-digit spread against Virginia at home?
Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this matchup!
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils
Monday, February 7, 2022 – 7:00 pm EST at Cameron Indoor Stadium
Betting Preview
The Duke Blue Devils will welcome the Virginia Cavaliers to Cameron Indoor Stadium for an exciting ACC matchup. In other years, this game would be a bit more intense, but this season, Virginia just hasn’t been the same as previous years.
The Cavaliers have won two straight games but ultimately are 8-5 in the ACC. That’s already five conference losses and tonight will likely be the sixth.
Betting Analysis
Currently, Duke looks like a National Championship contender. The Blue Devils are holding teams to a 45.1 percent effective field goal percentage while limiting teams at the foul line at a very high rate. Opponents are shooting just 30 percent from three and 45.1 percent from inside the arc against Duke this season.
Duke doesn’t really do the little things on the defensive end, however. The Blue Devils only force 18 percent of turnovers and allow 29.3 percent offensive rebounds.
You can expect Virginia to limit turnovers and the Cavaliers might even earn some rebounds, but shooting has been average, at best, for Virginia. The Cavaliers are shooting 33.8 percent from deep and 51.2 percent from inside the arc. Virginia is also 73.8 percent from the foul line, but again, the Cavaliers won’t get there very often.
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Meanwhile, Duke is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 55.2 percent while only turning the ball over 15.2 percent of the time. The Blue Devils are hitting 36.6 percent from deep and 55.4 percent from inside the arc on the season.
Duke will also win some offensive rebounds, as Virginia is giving up 29.2 percent of offensive rebounds on the year. Duke, on the other hand, is earning 31.5 percent offensive rebounds per game.
Virginia has struggled to defend the three-point shot, allowing teams to hit 34.8 percent of shots, but the Cavaliers have been solid elsewhere. Opponents have hit just 47.6 percent from inside the arc and just like Duke, Virginia will limit foul shots for the opposition.
But the reality is, Virginia’s offense likely won’t be able to hang with Duke. And this year, Duke’s defense has easily outperformed Virginia and we haven’t really said that in previous years.
Betting Pick
I like Duke to win this game, but I also think we’ll see plenty of offense in this game. Sure, both teams will be limited from getting to the line, but offensively, both teams are above average and if Virginia is down early, the pace will have to increase a little bit if the Cavaliers want to get back in the game.
The over 129 is appealing for my NCAAB picks as I’d expect Duke to get close to 70 points in this game. If Duke can get 70, you’re looking for Virginia to get around that 60-points marker to get over the total.
I’d like to think it’s doable!
NCAAB Pick: Over 129 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.