Monday, May 24, 2021 – 10:00 PM EDT at the Ball Arena
The Blazzers stunned the Nuggets in the first game of the playoffs between the two teams. The Blazers won 123-109 as the Blazers went 19-40 from downtown, shooting 47.5 percent from long range after a big game from Damian Lillard, where he scored 34 points and assisted on 13 baskets.
The Nuggets were home in the first game and will be home in this one. If they were to lose another home game, all momentum would be in the Blazers favor. The Nuggets didn’t get much out of their team in the first game. Nikola Jokic scored 24 points and rebounded 16 misses while Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon each chipped in with near double-doubles. But that was it. The rest of the squad contributed a combined 34 points while the Blazers had multiple two-digit scorers off the bench.
The Denver offense should be much better than that first game. On the season they scored 117.9 points per 100 possessions and shot a 56.3 percent effective field goal percentage. The Nuggets have dominated on the offensive glass and should excel in that area as Portland hasn’t been the best at limiting second chances this season in the first place. In that first game, the Nuggets shot 30.6 percent from long range but 50.5 percent from the field. The offense wasn’t awful to begin with but the defense struggled to get stops.
Michael Porter Jr. shot 1-10 from three while Austin Rivers shot 1-5 from three. The bench scored just 20 points in the game and Jokic only had one assist, struggling to get other teammates involved. Defensively, the Nuggets didn’t defend well from deep. This was likely going to be a problem coming into the game. The Nuggets aren’t the best at defending the perimeter. Either way, you can’t expect any team to shoot nearly 50 percent from long range game-after-game, especially on the road. The Blazers watched Damian Lillard shoot 5-12 from long range, Anfernee Simons shoot 4-5 from three and Carmelo Anthony shoot 4-8 from three. It was a fantastic first game offensively for the Blazers.
The Blazers score 119.1 points per 100 possessions with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6 percent. They rarely turn the ball over and are first in the league in that category. I should point out that the Blazers only had six turnovers, on the road, in a playoff game, against the Nuggets in the first game. However, the Blazers defense must be better if they want to put the Nuggets away. Allowing any team to shoot over 50 percent from the field in an entire game is not a good effort.
Portland has allowed 116.7 points per 100 possessions and an effective field goal percentage of 55.2 percent. They’re also not forcing a ton of turnovers and don’t rebound all that well on the defensive end. Because the Blazers made so many shots, rebounding wasn’t a big question mark but once shots start missing, things will change for the Blazers. Prediction The Blazers shot nearly 50 percent from three against the Nuggets, on the road. While that number is high, going into the playoffs, we knew the Nuggets could struggle to defend the perimeter.
Either way, it’s going to be hard to duplicate that performance and for the Nuggets, they’re likely going to come out with some fire, knowing they need this one before heading to Portland on the road. I’ll take the Nuggets on the moneyline to get the win at home.
NBA Pick: Nuggets (-120) at Bet 365