Purdue vs. Indiana Picks & Prediction for Saturday: This Hoosier State Battle Will Be Close (Archive)
NCAAB Pick: Indiana -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
It is a battle in the Hoosier State with No. 1 Purdue taking on in-state rival, No. 21 Indiana.
The NCAAB odds have the Boilermakers as the favorite, but are they the right choice for college basketball picks?
Remember, fans from the Hoosier State who want to make a wager on this game should check out our top-rated Indiana betting sites.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, February 4, 2023 – 04:00 PM EST at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
The Sagarin Ratings have the Big Ten as the second-best conference in college basketball.
If Purdue (21-1, 10-11-2 ATS) was not included in the conference it is debatable if they would be ranked that high.
The Big Ten has its share of above-average teams and KenPom.com has Rutgers, Indiana (15-7, 10-11-1 ATS), and Illinois in its Top 25 presently, however, when you watch them play, you are more inclined to think of the Top 30 because of their inconsistent nature.
Both Teams Rely on Their Big Men
Purdue’s Zach Edey has blossomed in his time in West Lafayette to become a more athletic and complete player, not just a dunker and shot blocker because he is 7-4. He’s improved his body and footwork and is the best center in the country.
Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis looks small at 6-9 compared to Edey, nevertheless, he is Indiana’s best player and since coach Mike Woodson altered the offense to run through the Hoosiers’ big man, Indiana has taken a big step forward.
How Will Indiana Play Purdue?
Because of Edey, opposing teams have to determine whether to try and contain him or defend everyone else hard and let the big man get his points.
That can be the difference between looking to double Edey front and back or choosing a poorer shooter or two from Purdue and letting them shoot somewhat unguarded and taking your chances.
Otherwise, Indiana can aggressively defend the ball on everyone but Edey and looks to bring weakside help to the Boilers' center as a constant distraction and force others to take tough shots. The concern with this style is Jackson-Davis getting into foul trouble.
Offensively, the Hoosiers shoot 49.7% and they don’t take many bad shots, especially at home and they will have to hit the mid-range shots because attacking Edey in the lane is pointless.
Boilermakers Have to Play Their Style
In truth, Purdue probably has had more talented squads in the past five years than this group.
Offensively and defensively the Boilers are above average by the numbers and don’t do anything that one would marvel at when thinking about the college basketball odds.
However, this team has taken coach Matt Painter’s toughness approach and applied it not only to how they play but to how they think.
As noted above, their ATS record is only 10-11-2 ATS, winning by 13.7 PPG.
That is only 3.3 points better than Indiana overall, while Purdue has had some close calls and given up some leads late, they might wobble but they just don’t lose, which exemplifies their mental toughness.
Who Covers the Spread and Where Does the Total Land?
After an impressive victory at home against Ohio State last Saturday, 86-70 as five-point home favorites to extend their win streak to five, the Hoosiers played with little energy and shot 37.5% at Maryland this past Tuesday, falling 66-55 as three-digit underdogs.
That sets a big effort from Indiana against their rival and the crowd will be out of control at Assembly Hall.
Though the Hoosiers are 1-5 SU and ATS as underdogs, all those came when they were on the road.
We are anticipating Purdue to be favored by 3.5 to 4.5 points with a total of 140. We’ll call a one-point outcome either way and for the total to be just a few points Over.
Score Prediction: Purdue 72 – Indiana 71
NCAAB Pick: Indiana -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
NCAAB Pick: Over 139 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.