Point/Counterpoint: Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Free NFL Week 9 Picks (Archive)
The dynamic duo of Swinging Johnson & Doug Upstone has landed a brand-new residency here at Bookmakers Review where they will be appearing just once a week, so get your tickets early! Each week, these two veteran handicappers debate one game on the NFL slate and it is up to you, the reader, to determine who makes the most compelling case with their NFL picks.
Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, NovembSunday, November 07, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium
2021 Point/Counterpoint Records:
- Swinging Johnson 0-0 ATS
- Doug Upstone 0-0 ATS
Swinging Johnson: Doug, you ignorant slut. I am absolutely euphoric about our reunion tour here at Bookmakers Review. I’m sorry I called you a bad name you sweet, delicious, man but I’m just getting my juices flowing for what I am sure will be a spirited, cerebral conversation that will ultimately deteriorate into name-calling and threats of vandalism.
So here we are, just two sharps debating different sides of the same coin. The coin in question you ask? Well, perhaps you didn’t see the headline but if the bold print didn’t catch your eye, then let it be known I am advising a wager on the lowly Houston Texans while you are advocating betting the home chalk, the Miami Dolphins.
So, with that, let me launch my opening salvo in defense of grabbing the 6 ½ point head start with the team that everyone conveniently forgets blew the doors off of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the opening week of the season. It seems that people instead focus on their seven consecutive losses which I find unconscionable, not to mention just a wee bit misogynistic. Why misogynistic? Well, let’s just say I enjoy casting aspersions using polysyllabic words as my weapons of choice even if they make no sense whatsoever.
Okay, so the Texans are coming off of a 38-22 loss to the Rams but they covered the number, barely, because nobody likes to bet on them but they are actually 4-4 ATS this year versus Miami’s 2-6 ATS mark. The Fish have desperately underachieved this year and because they are at home playing arguably the worst team in the league, they are somehow worthy of laying nearly a touchdown. The Dolphins shouldn’t lay 6 ½ points to anyone and that includes a Texans team that might be lousy but is better than the Lions, Jaguars, Jets, and yes, maybe even the Dolphins!
Doug Upstone: Mr. Swinging Johnson, it is both an honor and a thrill to share this space again with you. I’m still not entirely sure why we disappeared before, but I’m sure the new folks at BMR are wiser and appreciated our efforts from before.
Now let’s talk some NFL. Oh first, has all the scar tissue healed from the beat downs I inflicted on you previously? I hope for your sake.
As far as this game, we must have had too many White Claws the other night to choose this matchup, what were we thinking? Anyways, we did and since there is a point spread, it’s on.
The last time Houston won; the Kansas City Chiefs were still a Super Bowl contender. Miami was also very hopeful to contend with Buffalo in the AFC East coming off a 10-6 season. But let’s be honest, the Dolphins were about as believable last year as Jim Carrey in “Pet Detective” which was about these same Dolphins. (Though I was entertained) Coach Brian Flores’ team forced turnovers, made incredible special teams plays, and scored in every way imaginable.
Last year’s team played with confidence. This club, when it gives up a touchdown or has a turnover, acts like it is facing a firing squad next and sags visibly.
Yet, the top sportsbooks still have enough faith that Miami can win its first contest since Week 1 and I think we both agree those people are good at their jobs. And Houston, dude seriously, this is a BAD franchise, whose biggest highlight in the last year was when they fired GM(?) and coach(?) Bill O’Brien. Go ahead, make a solid case for the Texans, and after, I’ll tell you why the Fish win and cover.
Swinging Johnson: There’s an outside shot that Tyrod Taylor returns to action and if he does, it will only bolster Houston’s chances of staying within the margins. And no, I am not confusing Tyrod Taylor with Lamar Jackson but the man can run and the Dolphins have a tough time stopping anyone who can run the rock and are the penultimate worst stopping the pass, allowing over 291 passing yards per game. Thus, it isn’t a surprise that the Dolphins surrender an average of over 29 points per game which ranks them 29th in that category.
Now you will, of course, counter that the Texans allow 30 points per game and are the 31st ranked team stopping the run. However, the one thing Houston does fairly well is defending the pass, as they are in the middle of the pack, allowing 253 yards per contest. Miami’s quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has been erratic, to say the least, and turnovers are a huge problem for him. It’s not all his fault because his offense employs the ole’ protection scheme. Like the bulls in Spain, the matadors never get touched, they just wave at the rush and shout, “Ole’!”
The bottom line here is that these are two dreadful teams with one getting a 6 ½ point head start. Why? Well, we know the home team gets the automatic 3-point handicap but why the other 3 ½ points? Prettier uniforms? You tell me, Senor Upstone. I seek your wisdom, your guidance, and that open bar you promised me at your lair somewhere in the southwest.
Doug Upstone: I’ll be happy to impart wisdom on Miami for you. Swinger, we know each other well enough that when we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of teams, if we have something we don’t want to be known, we try and cover it up. Yes, the Texans are average against the pass, but for a reason, they are 31st against the run! Why bother to pass when you can run the ball down the other team’s pie hole.
Now, we understand we have two of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL, my Dolphins are 30th and your Texans are 31st. But for Miami to win and cover, they have to run and likely enough designed runs by Tua to move the chains. The Hawaiian lefty should be able to connect with his average group of receivers who will have more room to roam because Houston will have to walk up a safety to slow the run.
Though all the prop bets are not out as this article was released, if the Fins TE Mike Gesicki is O/U 1.5 for touchdowns, I’m betting the Over.
As far as my sorry malleable Miami defense, I really have no defense, these guys stink. I will have my rosary, holy water, and bible next to me praying for defensive stops and turnovers.
I can say with the utmost of confidence (or as much as one can have with a 1-7 SU favorite) that I discovered the Fish are 10-2 ATS at home after the first month of the season since 2019, while your team is 0-6 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive defeats, losing by a ginormous 17.6 PPG. Make it Miami by 9.
Swinging Johnson: Well, you are nothing but a trendsetter, Doug. I still see you wearing that sparkly glove from time to time. But you see, just as clothes go out of fashion so too do trends. These are the same franchises but different teams.
Mine is not a ringing endorsement of the Texans, nor is it an auto-fade of the Dolphins. It’s simply a line that is too big. It’s value, baby. I can see the Texans putting just enough heat on Tua to make the kid jittery. The Dolphins don’t blow teams out. Hell, the Dolphins don’t even win games!
And yes, neither do the Texans but give me the generous head start and my pom-poms will be shakin’ for the Texans from kickoff to the final gun. I’m looking for a score that will be around 20-17. Who wins? Who cares? Houston with the cover.
Swinger’s Free NFL Pick: Texans +6 ½ at (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.