Don’t look now, but the Philadelphia Phillies are making a late push for the postseason. With a hot run, the Phillies have pulled to within two games of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, and enter a series against the Milwaukee Brewers requiring some wins to stay in the race.
Let’s check out the MLB odds for today’s matchup.
Monday, September 06, 2021 – 02:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Philadelphia swept Milwaukee the last time these two sides met earlier this year, but much has changed since then. One thing that hasn’t changed is the rotation for both teams, which will be on full display as Zach Wheeler takes on Brandon Woodruff. With so much on the line and so tiny of an edge, you’d expect a closer line here, yet the Brewers are decently-sizer favorites.
Is that fair, though? How much is truly between these teams? Can we pick out a winner here, or should we target the total? Without further ado, let’s take a look into how you should be wagering over at the top-rated sportsbooks.
As it turns out, hitting the baseball can be good. I know that may be controversial, or hard to hear, but in the game of baseball, that’s the truth. Sometimes, just getting the bat on the ball is all you need to do. That’s what we have with the Philadelphia Phillies over the last couple of weeks, which has led to seven wins in nine tries.
The Phillies lead all teams over that period of time in contact rate, at a beefy 81%. Unsurprisingly, they’ve struck out just 17.1% of the time and walked in 9.6% of plate appearances. Those are all excellent numbers, and highlight how great these at-bats have been for Philly.
What’s been remarkable about this run is the Phillies’ .192 ISO, which seems to clash with their 33.8% hard-hit rate. It’s not a scenario that would seem to be sustainable, but with some big bats in the lineup, you can understand why they’ve been able to find success in spots.
One guy who’s found so much success this season is Zach Wheeler. His 2.77 xERA is one of the best in baseball, as is his 29.7% hard-hit rate. With that being said, he finished August with a 4.81 ERA, and will look to start anew in September. Wheeler allowed six home runs in the month, which will be a big problem he needs to solve.
He also walked four in his last start, which was very uncharacteristic of him. Wheeler so desperately needs to turn it around.
Well, it’s not as if the story with the Brewers is so different at the moment than the Phillies. They’ve won six of eight and continue hitting the daylights out of the baseball. The thing is, things are so different now than they were when these two teams met in May, which resulted in a four-game sweep for the Phillies.
The Brewers have added Willy Adames since then and gotten a huge lift from guys like Luis Urias. They now stand 11 games clear of the Reds in the NL Central, almost guaranteed to win that division.
So, there’s not a whole lot to play for here, yet the Brewers still rank sixth in hard-hit rate over the last two weeks even though they rank 21st in ISO. Milwaukee is still rather imposing at the dish, but it is having a hard time with strikeouts at the moment.
Speaking of strikeouts, Brandon Woodruff has really been racking them up. He has 18 across his last two starts, and his K% for the season stands at a gaudy 30%. He hasn’t allowed many hard-hit balls as well, and shouldn’t come into contact with many against the Phillies.
Even as it is, I can’t look away from the Phillies. They have everything to play for right now, and they are having such well-disciplined at-bats. This price is an overreaction to the last few Wheeler starts, and a guy with his ability should have a good chance to right the ship against a team that’s been whiffing a lot. That’s why I like Philadelphia for my MLB pick here.
MLB Pick: Phillies ML +125 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.