Panthers vs. Lightning Free NHL Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
When did the Sunshine State become the epicenter of good hockey? Tampa Bay is of course the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, while Florida is among the best teams in the league this season. To win the Eastern Conference, the Panthers are +425 favorites at BMR’s top-rated books and the Lightning are +475 second-favorites.
It’s a shame they are in the same division and can’t meet in the East Finals. Fortunately, tonight we get a preview of what that might look like so let’s break down the NHL odds.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Saturday, November 13, 2021 – 07:00 PM EST at Amalie Arena
These clubs did meet in the first round of last season’s playoffs. The Panthers had the home-ice advantage but lost in six. Saturday will be the second of four regular-season meetings and the Panthers’ final visit to Tampa unless there is a playoff rematch.
On Oct. 19, Florida was a 4-1 winner at Amalie Arena. Aleksander Barkov broke a 1-1 tie early in the third period. Spencer Knight was in net for the Cats and had 30 saves, while Andrei Vasilevskiy had 28 for the Bolts. The favorite is 21-7 SU in the past 28 meetings.
Florida Suddenly Struggling
The Panthers started the season at 10-0-1 but have now lost three straight games, the latest a 3-2 shootout defeat at Pittsburgh on Thursday. Frank Vatrano had his third goal of the season for the Cats to tie it 1-1 late in the first and Aleksander Barkov tied it again 2-2 with his ninth goal of the season at 2:30 of the third. Barkov now has a point in eight straight games and leads the team with 15 points overall.
Florida had a go-ahead goal with about five minutes left taken off the board after the Penguins challenged the play and it was eventually ruled offside by officials. Barkov, Anton Lundell and former Penguin Patric Hornqvist were all stopped in the shootout by Pittsburgh goaltender Tristan Jarry, who had been 0-3 in shootouts this year.
Sergei Bobrovsky allowed two goals on 31 shots to fall to 6-0-1 with a 1.73 goals-against-average and a .946 save percentage this season. He had missed the previous three games injured. We will assume it will be Bobrovsky in net Saturday over Spencer Knight, who has been struggling lately. Florida is missing injured forwards Joe Thornton and Mason Marchment and defenseman Markus Nutivaara. Marchment is the most important of the three with a goal and six assists in seven games. The Panthers are 0-4 SU in their past four on the road.
Tampa Bay Thin On Defense
The rest advantage goes to the Lightning as they have been off since Tuesday when they blew a 1-0 third-period lead and lost 2-1 in overtime against another Eastern Conference powerhouse in the Carolina Hurricanes – it was the sixth straight game Tampa Bay earned at least a point. Steven Stamkos’ seventh goal of the season gave the home side a 1-0 lead about midway through the second, but Carolina tied it midway through the third on the power play and won it at 3:26 of the third. The Lightning went 0-for-4 on the power play and had just one combined shot with the man-advantage.
"There’ve been times this year where we’re in these tight games where our goalie gives us a chance or our penalty kill gives us a chance and the PP has a chance to get an extra point. And we’ve been in a few where it hasn’t. That’s the frustrating part because I think we’re leaving points out there," Stamkos said.
The Pick
There is plenty of news on the Tampa Bay blue line. Mikhail Sergachev served the finale of his two-game suspension Tuesday so he’ll play Saturday. He has two goals and four assists this season. Zach Bogosian missed Tuesday due to injury and will not be ready by Saturday. Erik Cernak suffered a lower-body injury and is week-to-week. He might be the Bolts’ most important defenseman other than former Norris Trophy winner Victor Hedman.
Cernak has three assists and is plus-1 in eight games. "He’s a big minutes muncher for us, blocks a ton of shots, works hard, plays physical. Just a guy that does it all really," Lightning center Brayden Point said of Cernak.
The Under is 7-2 in the Lightning’s last nine games playing on three or more days rest. I like the total a bit better than the side here for our NHL picks.
NHL Pick: Under 6 Goals (-121) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
NHL Pick: Lightning ML (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.