Orioles vs. Red Sox Free MLB Picks and Preview (Archive)
The Boston Red Sox will look to inch closer to .500 with a series win over the Baltimore Orioles. How will the final game of the series play out on Memorial Day?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks! Here are our picks and predictions for the AL East matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, May 30, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Teams Standings
- The Red Sox are currently 23-25 on the season and are just a couple of wins away from getting back to .500 on the season.
- It was a rough start for the Red Sox and their offense but things have turned around quickly.
- With a home series against the Orioles and the Cincinnati Reds up next, the Red Sox are in great shape to get back to .500.
- Baltimore is currently 20-29 on the season and will still finish last in the AL East when the season is finished.
Who Pitches for the Red Sox Today?
The Boston Red Sox will send out Rich Hill for today’s game. Hill has a 3.86 ERA and has just been very reliable throughout the season.
In the last 30 days, Hill has a 4.52 xFIP with 17.8% of strikeouts, however, he’s only walked 4.1% of batters in that same time frame.
Hill has allowed some power to righties as a left-handed thrower with an ISO of .185, but other than that, Hill has been above average.
Who Pitchers for the Orioles Today?
On the other hand, Tyler Wells will man the mound for the Orioles. He’s 1-4 with a 4.30 ERA on the season. He also has an xFIP of 5.25 in the last 30 days with just 15.3% of strikeouts.
Wells has limited walks to 2% in that same time frame but isn’t earning many ground balls and is allowing too many line drives.
Red Sox Lineup Analysis
- The Red Sox has been on fire as of late.
- In the last 30 days, the Red Sox have a .331 wOBA and ISO of .179 using their projected lineup.
- Boston has only struck out 17% of the time in the last 30 days with that same lineup against righties.
- Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez have destroyed righties in the last 30 days along with Christian Arroyo, who has a .318 ISO in 23 plate appearances.
Orioles Lineup Analysis
- The Orioles have been awful against lefties with a .094 ISO and wOBA of .245 in the last 30 days.
- Baltimore strikes out 23.8% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days with the projected lineup.
- The Orioles will likely get fooled by Hill in this game.
Orioles vs. Red Sox: Game Prediction
Rich Hill Against the Orioles
Rich Hill doesn’t have insane put-away stuff. However, the Orioles have been dreadful in the last 30 days against lefties.
Hill’s only worry will be Anthony Santander, who has a .216 ISO in the last 30 days against lefties. However, Santander also has a .268 wOBA and strikes out 31.7% of the time against lefties in that same time frame. So it’s not much to worry about.
Hill will go his usual 5 innings of work and put the Red Sox in a position to win the game.
Tyler Wells Against the Red Sox
The Red Sox have been the hottest offense in baseball recently. In the last 30 days, the Red Sox have crushed righties with a high wOBA, high ISO, and low strikeout rate.
Boston also hit 40.5% of ground balls against righties in the last 30 days along with nearly 21% of line drives.
Wells can limit walks but has allowed some power to righties recently. In this game, J.D. Martinez and Christian Arroyo are two bats to look out for as right-handed power bats against Wells.
MLB Betting Pick
I’ll be looking at the Red Sox -.5 in the first 5 innings at -115.
The Red Sox are listed at -180 on the moneyline. That’s a bit too steep for my liking. But the offense should be able to have plenty of success against Wells and I have no confidence in the Orioles against Hill.
The Orioles have struggled badly against lefties and when you take on a veteran, crafty, lefty, things ultimately get worse. So let’s ride the red hot Red Sox bats with my MLB pick of the day.
MLB Pick: Red Sox -.5 F5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.