Oklahoma’s 4-0 and will continue their quest at a potential National Championship. They’ll have to defeat Kansas State, on the road, to get there. Will the Sooners get the job done in Week 5? Let’s see the NCAAF odds.
Saturday, October 2, 2021 – 3:30 PM EDT at Billy Snyder Family Stadium
The Oklahoma Sooners have had some hiccups to start the season but are still 4-0 and ranked 6 in the nation. The Sooners haven’t looked like a Top 10 team this season with single-digit wins against Tulane, Nebraska, and West Virginia. Still, they’re finding ways to win games and that’s what matters, especially in conference play.
On the other hand, Kansas State has lost Skyler Thompson again and was relying on Will Howard at quarterback until he got injured. Howard had some success last season and has plenty of experience, but he’s no Skyler Thompson. Thompson was getting beat up thanks to terrible pass protection from Kansas State. Apparently, it hasn’t been much better for Howard. Kansas State lost to Oklahoma State last week, 31-20, and once Howard left the game due to injury, it was Jaren Lewis who came in and didn’t do much better.
At this point in time, we’re unclear who will start but the big thing here is the offensive line being dreadful in pass protection. They’re not protecting their quarterbacks right now and it’s a bad look. Oklahoma is averaging 38.8 points per game along with 443.8 yards per game on the offensive end. They’re led by Spencer Rattler who has thrown for over 1,000 yards along with eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
The offense hasn’t been incredibly efficient this season but they’ve been good enough thanks to a Sooners defense that has been lights out this season. The pass rush is elite and the coverage has been spectacular. They’re also swarming the ball in the run game and tackling at a very good rate. Both defenses are actually allowing 330.3 yards or less on defense this season and it’s due to the pass rush on both sides.
Oklahoma should be able to rush the ball well against a Kansas State team that hasn’t looked all that great in the run game on defense. Don’t look at the box score. They’re only allowing 75.3 yards on the ground per game but the Kansas State rushing defense can struggle at times and allow big plays.
I’m not going to trust Kansas State with a third-string quarterback. After last week, both quarterbacks struggled and without Skyler Thompson, the offense is going to struggle. Kansas State is capable of running the football but it’s going to be hard to gain much against Oklahoma in the first place.
With Kansas State at home, Oklahoma is just a 10.5 point favorite. For my NCAAF picks, I’d buy it up to -9.5 when alternative lines come out but for now, I don’t mind taking the 10.5. Oklahoma has struggled winning games by a large margin lately, but Kansas State’s offense just won’t be able to stick around in this game, no matter who the quarterback is.
NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma -10.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.