The Carolina Panthers have started the 2021 season as one of the biggest surprise 2-0 teams after beating the Saints 26-7 on Sunday. Now they get a Houston team that was also looking like a surprise until quarterback Tyrod Taylor left Sunday’s 31-21 loss in Cleveland with a hamstring injury.
Thursday, September 23, 2021 – 08:20 PM EDT at NRG Stadium
Carolina is a 7.5-point favorite at many of the top sportsbooks. The Texans will turn to third-round rookie Davis Mills as the latest starting quarterback. Houston was outscored 17-7 in the second half by Cleveland with Mills in the game on Sunday. Can he pull out an upset?
Nothing says it’s been a nutty start to the season better than the fact that Sam Darnold had the second-best QBR in Week 2 (77.9) against a New Orleans defense that forced Aaron Rodgers into a league-worst QBR (13.9) in Week 1. Your guess is as good as mine for how the season adjustments will play out on these opponents, but it’s not like Darnold had a lot of familiarity with the Saints as a division foe. He just got here this season, and so far, it has been a success.
Darnold led the Panthers to 17 points in the first half alone on Sunday, a remarkable turnaround for a quarterback who failed to lead his team to more than 17 points in 18 of his first 39 starts.
D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are a good receiving duo for Darnold, but we saw Darnold play with Anderson with the Jets and it did not work out. By removing Adam Gase from the coaching equation, things are off to a better start. Christian McCaffrey has also instantly returned to being a dominant receiver out of the backfield and Darnold used him for another 65 yards that way against the Saints.
Plain and simple, the Panthers enter this matchup with the better, more experienced, higher pedigree quarterback and they also have more weapons for him to play with. The Panthers have also been much more impressive on defense, harassing the Saints all day and making it hard for Jameis Winston to throw for 100 yards. They held a Sean Payton-coached offense to its worst yardage output ever as the Saints only had 128 yards on Sunday.
Yet after drawing the lowly Jets in a revenge game for Darnold and these Bizarro Saints, I’m not sure anyone is going to legitimately buy the Panthers as a contender until they show up the Cowboys (Week 4) or maybe not even until they meet the Bills in Week 15. We will not see Carolina face Tampa Bay until twice in the final three weeks of the season, but with the way the schedule is shaping out early, this team may actually have a much better season than expected.
But a loss in Houston as a heavy favorite would be a really bad look.
The Texans have entered this season in the unenviable position of carrying Deshaun Watson on the roster as he awaits consequences from his allegations of sexual assault. But while he is not playing, Tyrod Taylor finished six quarters of action for the Texans with the highest QBR (84.5) in the league. It was a stunning start to the season as the talent-strapped Texans beat Jacksonville and Taylor was in a 14-14 tie with the Browns before a hamstring injury ended his day. He’ll reportedly miss Thursday’s game too, so it is Davis Mills in the starting position as the team keeps its distance from Watson. Mills’ 10.0 QBR was the third-lowest among qualified players in Week 2 according to ESPN.
While Taylor was sharp and used his mobility for a 15-yard touchdown run, Mills was not so successful in the second half. He only completed 8-of-18 passes and threw an interception, but he also had his first touchdown pass in the NFL to Brandin Cooks. Between Cooks and a talented backfield, Mills is not without weapons in this offense, and the Texans have been exceeding coaching expectations so far this season.
Mills had limited starting experience at Stanford before being drafted in the third round. He only had 11 college games where he threw more than 15 passes, but he did at least have a pair of 400-yard passing games, including a 48-47 win over UCLA in double overtime. But chances are the Texans will be safe with him on Thursday and rely more on the backfield of Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and David Johnson. However, that trio only combined for 68 yards on 25 carries against the Browns.
I would call Mills a wild card, but both quarterbacks and really both teams are wild cards at this point. What is even real and reliable here outside of Christian McCaffrey being a great back? But I did pull a deep dive for this matchup. From 2001 to 2020, a total of 203 quarterbacks made their first NFL start. Their record was 70-132-1 SU (.347) and 109-91-3 ATS (.544), so they did cover more often than not. Of the 21 quarterbacks who were an underdog of 7-to-7.5 points, they were 5-16 SU and 11-9-1 ATS.
Interestingly enough, quarterbacks who were underdogs of 8-to-9 points in their first start were 15-3 ATS. Just something to keep in mind in case the spread moves by Thursday night. But you really are flipping a coin here historically for how this can go with an unknown quarterback.
Since 2007, road favorites of at least 7.5 points on a Thursday night game are 7-3 ATS. The problem is most of those teams who covered had the likes of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, and not Sam Darnold.
As great as the Panthers were in stomping New Orleans by 19 points, they only beat the Jets at home 19-14 in Week 1, and that was with Zach Wilson taking six sacks. Wilson just threw four picks to the Patriots in a much bigger loss on Sunday.
I’m still not ready to wrap my head around the Panthers being a team you can reliably trust to win on the road by more than seven points. For my NFL picks, I will hedge the uncertainty here and go with the Texans, who will want to have a good showing in their only national game this year, to get a cover. It’s just a shame that Taylor will not be able to play in this one.
NFL Pick: Houston +7.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.