NFL Divisional Round Picks: Why 49ers Can Cover vs. Packers (Archive)
The NFL Divisional Round is set to feature the finest stars of the league. The NFC is especially intriguing, as landmark franchises are set to face-off. We have the betting advice and NFL odds coverage you need to cash out at the best online books.
Coming off the biggest upset in the NFL Wild Card round, the San Francisco 49ers are looking to cover and upset the top-seeded Green Bay Packers. We’re going to break this matchup down and see why the 49ers can cover as the road underdog. This game is a rematch of the Packers’ 30-28 Week 3 win.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
Saturday, January 22, 2022 – 8:15 PM EST at Lambeau Field
Playoff Packers
One of the most surprising statistics of Aaron Rodgers' career isn't the insane touchdown-to-interception ratio or any of the other contributions to how we've started looking at the position differently. It's that such an amazing, dynamic passer is just 1-3 in the NFC conference championship round. The Packers, always a solid team and often favored to win, simply struggle to come through on the grand stage.
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The franchise has lost back-to-back conference championships to the Buccaneers and the 49ers. In both games, the Packers' run game was abysmal. But the defense was dominated either by the passing game (against Tampa Bay) or the running game (San Francisco) almost exclusively.
Only a few things have changed between these teams since their last playoff matchup. The Packers' defense ranks better as a playmaking bunch under Joe Barry's tutelage. And the offense is one of the most efficient in the league thanks to the system utilized by Matt LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett.
But the Packers' offense isn't incredibly talented beyond Rodgers and All-Pro receiver Davante Adams. Their scheme must run cleanly to win at a higher level. San Francisco is the same way but has the ability to overachieve as we saw last week.
San Francisco's passing defense has improved considerably since their September matchup. Rodgers was able to complete 23-of-33 attempts for 261 yards for two scores, with Adams hauling in over half his yards. Stopping Adams is impossible but the development of cornerback Emmanuel Moseley could prove key to slowing him.
The 49ers must be disruptive with their defensive stars. It appears as though linebacker Fred Warner will be able to play. It'll be hugely important for star pass-rusher Nick Bosa play as well after suffering a concussion.
The two leaders combined for 13 tackles and one quarterback hit in the last matchup. Both need to be even better this go-around.
49ers Offensive Advantage
The bigger reason why the 49ers will cover is on the other side of the ball. The Packers played one top-five rushing team in the league this season, the Cleveland Browns. The Browns pulverized the Packers' 28th-DVOA-ranked run defense to the tune of 219 yards on 25 attempts.
San Francisco can do similar damage on the ground and take over the game. San Francisco has totaled less than 100 yards only four times all year. It's safe to assume that Kyle Shanahan knows limiting Jimmy Garoppolo's role will mitigate turnover opportunities in the freezing cold as well.
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What does work in the passing game is the continued involvement of stars Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Again, San Francisco has a massive advantage here. The Packers ranked 25th in success rate against tight ends and 32nd in the red zone. Both bode extremely well as the 49ers are as good as anyone in the league at exploiting tight end mismatches and red zone opportunities.
Like last week against Dallas, an outright San Francisco win isn't out of the question. The 49ers are a tough matchup because they're so good at what they do. For the above reasons, invest in the 49ers with your NFL picks.
NFL Picks:
49ers +6 (-112) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Under 47.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.