The likely absence of James Harden makes the Under a viable NBA Pick for Thursday’s matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks.
Thursday 10th June 2021 – 7:30 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
We’ve seen this movie before. The Brooklyn Nets are using the same textbook that the Toronto Raptors (2019) and Miami Heat (2020) used to beat the Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs: Put multiple defenders on Giannis Antetokounmpo. And this trilogy is getting stale.
Brooklyn took the first two games of this Eastern Conference semifinal SU and ATS, even with James Harden (hamstring) playing a grand total of 43 seconds. So what should we do with our NBA Picks?
Do we keep plucking that chicken, or do we zag for Thursday’s Game 3 and take the Bucks as 3-point home faves at Bovada? Ah, good work, you’ve spotted the false binary choice.
FiveThirtyEight project Milwaukee to win by exactly three points, so we’re going to use the Giannis Code and the Harden injury to take the Under instead.
It’s going to be a small bet, though. The over/under for Game 3 is 235 points on the NBA Odds board at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), down from closing totals of 239.5 and 238.5 in the first two games; however, if I’m doing the math right, the Nets and Bucks combined for 222 and 211 points in Brooklyn.
Antetokoumpo hasn’t gotten to the rim as often as usual, thanks to the truculent defense of Blake Griffin and his helpers – especially in Game 2. And as in years past, Antetokounmpo isn’t making them pay for it at the free-throw line, shooting 2-for-10 thus far.
This isn’t the same Milwaukee team, though. All those major and minor moves they’ve made were supposed to make Part III a lot more enjoyable to watch for Bucks fans; Jrue Holiday is supposed to create offense where Eric Bledsoe didn’t, P.J. Tucker is supposed to 3-and-D where Wesley Matthews didn’t, yadda yadda.
Maybe they’ll get their act together in time to salvage this series, or maybe the Bucks miss Donte DiVincenzo (foot) more than bettors expected – if they thought about him at all.
Meanwhile, as we go to press, Harden is officially listed as day-to-day for Game 3 after his right hamstring tightened up during the first minute of the series opener. Given the chatter from Brooklyn – and the nature of hamstring injuries – we’d be surprised if Harden suits up for this one.
But even if he does, he’ll be less than 100 percent, which would help our cause with the Under.
Maybe we’ve gotten a bit too complacent about Brooklyn and how they keep winning as long as they have two of their Big Three in uniform. Kevin Durant (plus-6.2 OBPM at Basketball Reference) and Kyrie Irving (plus-5.7 OBPM) are two of the most gifted offensive players in the league.
Neither of them is Harden (plus-6.3 OBPM), though. Plus, there’s a non-zero chance Durant and/or Irving break down themselves during Game 3. We’ll buy that for a dollar.
NBA Pick: Under 235 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.