Louisville vs. Duke College Football Week 12 Best Bets (Archive)
Hi there. Also, due Suns-Timberwolves tomorrow … may not have that by the 8 am deadline only because the Suns are also playing tonight so will need to see what happens there, injuries, etc. Shouldn’t be much past 8 am though.
Louisville Cardinals vs. Duke Blue Devils
Thursday, November 18, 2021 – 07:30 PM EST at Wallace Wade Stadium
Really nothing at stake in the grand scheme of things when Louisville visits Duke on Thursday with ESPN having the national telecast – frankly, this would be a much better college basketball matchup.
The Blue Devils will finish with a losing record for a third straight year and one has to wonder about the future of Coach David Cutcliffe, although he’s widely respected in really a no-win situation at a basketball school. Louisville is trying to get eligible for a bowl game.
Because UofL is pretty new to the ACC and these schools are in different divisions, they have only played twice overall and once as conference co-members: In 2016, Louisville was ranked No. 7 behind a QB named Lamar Jackson and beat Duke 24-14. Thus, really no head-to-head NCAAF betting odds.
Cardinals Are Protecting The Ball
Louisville (5-5) played maybe its best game of the season Saturday in crushing Syracuse 41-3 on the day the school retired the jersey of former Heisman Trophy winner and current Baltimore Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Malik Cunningham, who is a dual-threat like Jackson, was 13-for-18 for 209 yards and four scores and rushed for a touchdown.
Cunningham moved into second place on Louisville’s career list for all-time touchdowns responsible for 89, trailing Jackson’s 119. Freshman Jalen Mitchell rushed for 102 yards, his first 100-yard game. Fellow running back Hassan Hall, who had played in the first nine games and had 272 yards on 38 carries, entered the transfer portal prior to Saturday. He also was a big part of special teams, returning two kickoffs for touchdowns in his career.
It was 35-3 at the half, the 35 points being the most scored in any half by the Cardinals since also scoring 35 against Syracuse in the opening half on Nov. 18, 2017. The 38-point margin of victory was the largest against an FBS opponent since the Cardinals beat the Orange 56-10 in that 2017 matchup.
Louisville is not the best defensive team around but held the Orange to 184 yards and just 46 passing. The Cards also had four sacks and have had at least three in four of the past five games.
UofL did not commit a turnover for the second consecutive game. The Cards have turned the football over just 12 times this season. That was a major issue for the team in 2020 and a big reason why it finished 4-7. The Cards are 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 NCAAF picks following a win of at least 20 points.
Duke May Have New QB
There may be more fans at the Duke basketball game at small Cameron Indoor Stadium on Friday vs. Lafayette than there will be for the Blue Devils (3-7) for this game.
They lost a sixth straight game Saturday, 48-17 at Virginia Tech – Duke has allowed at least 31 points in each of those losses. The Blue Devils have lost 11 consecutive ACC games dating to last season and are 4-20 in ACC play over the past three seasons.
Riley Leonard became the first true freshman to start at quarterback for Duke since Thaddeus Lewis did against Wake Forest on Sept. 9, 2006. Leonard went 7-of-16 for 84 yards and added 30 rushing yards on 16 carries but was eventually pulled for another freshman, Jordan Moore.
He was 6-for-12 for 63 yards and a TD and rushed for 113 yards and a touchdown. Those rushing yards were the 14th most by a freshman in a single game in program history.
I’d think that performance has earned Moore the starting job but we will have to wait and see. The starting QB the first nine games was senior Gunnar Holmberg, but he missed the Virginia Tech matchup with an injury. Not clear if he will be ready for this one.
“Riley did some good things, he didn’t get much help and got hit multiple times pretty hard. He got run into the sideline and I just didn’t think he threw it like he normally throws it and he kept saying he was ok but I want to evaluate that,” Coach David Cutcliffe said. “I thought Jordan came in and gave us some spark and made some plays but we’ve got to find the mix of where we are.”
I don’t give Duke much chance to win here, but 19.5 points are too many. Simulations I have run have the final score at something like 37-24. Duke is 4-1 against the spread in its past five at home.
NCAAF Pick: Duke at +19.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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