Liberty vs. Sun WNBA Odds, Preview and Pick (Archive)
The New York Liberty head back out on the road on Wednesday and while their flight and travel to Uncasville will be easy, the WNBA odds have the Libs as double-digit underdogs against the Connecticut Sun at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks and betting sites.
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena
New York Liberty Analysis
There are several reasons why the New York Liberty are heavy underdogs here, but the main two are how well the Sun play at home and how poorly Liberty have performed away from New York this season:
- The loss of Jasmine Thomas hasn’t shaken this Sun team as of yet and at home, they haven’t missed a beat.
- Connecticut is averaging 109.2 points per 100 possessions in their nine home games this season, which is second to only the Las Vegas Aces.
- They have done this with balanced scoring behind reigning MVP, Jonquel Jones.
- The Libs are still without their third scoring option in Betnijah Laney, who has been out for almost a month and just announced yesterday, that they’ll be without veteran sharpshooter, Rebecca Allen tonight.
Connecticut Sun Lineup Breakdown
Five Sun players are averaging double figures and even with the loss of Thomas, the Sun’s guard depth has really helped them weather that storm. The re-addition of Courtney Williams in the offseason after she spent two years in Atlanta has really helped.
Along with veteran Natisha Hiedeman and second-year DiJonai Carrington, the guards have led this offense well. That’s bad news for the Liberty tonight. If they fall behind early, they don’t have the offensive pedigree to beat a good defense playing from behind.
Natasha Howard will have her hands full tonight with Jones on the defensive end, so a lot of offensive responsibility will fall into the hands of Sabrina Ionescu. However, I don’t doubt that Alyssa Thomas and the rest of the Sun will put a ton of pressure on Ionescu and try to force the ball out of her hands.
Liberty vs. Sun Betting Pick Analysis
All of this is to say that the Liberty are about to run into a buzz saw, but I respect the firepower they still do have tonight enough to not fade them for the entire game with a spread in double digits. However, with the pieces the Libs are missing, I think the Sun will be able to stretch out a two or three-possession halftime lead at the very least.
Connecticut Sun
- At home this season the Sun own the league’s best first-half offensive rating at 113.8 and even more impressive has been their defense in those spots, allowing only 88 points per 100 possessions.
- That amounts to a net rating of +25.8 points per 100 possessions in-home first halves.
New York Liberty
- New York is averaging only 73.4 points per 100 possessions in road first halves this season and while that is a sample size of only six games. It doesn’t bode well for their chances here in tonight’s first half against one of the league’s best home teams.
- The Libs have won their last two road games, which were against the Mystics and Fever, however, they were down to Indiana at the half in their last road game and Connecticut is a much tougher opponent on both ends of the court.
What has happened and what will happen are obviously two separate things, but the Liberty have performed terribly in these spots, for the reasons above, invest in your Sun with your betting picks!
WNBA Pick: Sun -5.5 1st Half (-115) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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