As long as LeBron James is playing this Tuesday, we’re fading the L.A. Lakers and putting the Sacramento Kings in our NBA picks!
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Golden 1 Center
Here we go again. The Los Angeles Lakers are visiting the Sacramento Kings this Tuesday, and as usual, the NBA odds for this matchup are on hold at press time. It looks like the Lakers aren’t the cause in this case – both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are available to play, according to the latest injury reports.
It must be the Kings then; Harrison Barnes (foot) is doubtful, and Richaun Holmes (eye) is questionable. Neither of those players is good enough to stop those NBA lines for very long. Overseas, the Kings (8-13 SU, 9-12 ATS) have opened as 3.5-point home dogs for this matchup, and we think that’s plenty enough to keep using our “fade/follow” tactic vis-a-vis LeBron and the Lakers (11-11 SU, 7-15 ATS).
That means fading the Lakers when he plays, as he apparently will on Tuesday.
We don’t mean anything disrespectful towards LeBron with this strategy, of course – it just keeps working. Last Friday, King James and the Lakers were extended to three overtimes and lost to Sacramento 141-137 as 7.5-point home favorites. Then they edged the Detroit Pistons 110-106 on Sunday, coughing up the cash as 10.5-point home faves. Let’s see, carry the one... that leaves L.A. at 7-4 SU and 2-9 ATS this year with James in uniform.
In fact, to prove I’m not anti-Lakers here, let me give some props to a player who hasn’t gotten any from me the past five years: Carmelo Anthony. He’s found the closest thing to a perfect role for him on this squad, coming off the bench as a microwave scorer with almost nothing else put on his plate. Anthony is back in negative territory at minus-0.8 BPM (as per Basketball Reference) after a hot start, but he’s still a useful commodity in this form. Maybe he’ll do the full Vince Carter and extend his career for a few more seasons.
Okay, that’s all I’ve got for these particular Lakers. Let’s give Sacramento some rare love while I’m at it; firing head coach Luke Walton (their second-winningest coach of all-time behind Rick Adelman) was neither here nor there, but the Kings are 2-2 SU and ATS under Alvin Gentry, who has earned all the respect in the world, and they have improved from minus-3.45 last year to minus-2.13 on the Simple Rating System at Basketball-Reference.
We’d certainly prefer Sacramento’s chances if Barnes (plus-2.0 BPM) and especially Holmes (plus-1.8 BPM) were in the mix. But neither player was available last Friday, and they still beat the Lakers with Mo Harkless (minus-4.4 BPM) and Alex Len (minus-2.3 BPM) in the starting lineup.
No doubt LeBron will be even saltier than usual in their rematch, so make this a small bet at your favorite sportsbook just in case he musters up another Superman performance, but fade these Lakers right in the face – and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Sacramento Kings (+175) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.