Italy to Win(+150)
Italy vs. Spain EURO 2020 Semifinals Preview and Best Bet (Archive)
The Euro 2020 Semi-Finals is here as we see two European soccer powerhouses come head to head at the “home of football” in England’s Wembley Stadium. Italy are +140 to win the tie in 90 minutes, whilst Spain are priced up at +200 and the draw +210 with the best sportsbooks.
Italy vs. Spain
Tuesday, July 6, 2021 – 3:00 PM EST at Wembley Stadium
Italy Stay Strong to Overcome Dangerous Belgium Team
Italy came out on top against Belgium with a 2-1 victory thanks to an amazing winning goal from Lorenzo Insigne, proving to Europe and the world that they are not just a “dark horse” anymore and have now moved into the second favorite for the tournament behind England at soccer odds of +200.
Italy put up a fine display of their new style mixed with a little spice of the Italian’s old style of play as they were resilient in defense in the final 20 minutes of the game and Belgium’s only goal came from a spot-kick. The Italians didn’t make one single attack from the 71st minute onwards and to be fair, they didn’t need to as the Belgians struggled to break down the Italian defense.
It wasn’t until Italy “shut the shop” that the Belgians looked lost and out of the tie. It is a shame Italy’s Leonardo Spinazzola suffered a major injury in the quarter finals as he was one of the key components to this team’s makeup and no doubt in the team of the tournament.
Spain Do It the Hard Way, Again
This Spanish side never likes to do things the easy way, after struggling to win their opening two games they put five past Slovakia and thinking they had the better of Croatia in the last 16 with a 3-1 lead and five minutes remaining on the clock they somehow found themselves going to extra time. Ultimately, the Spanish seen off Croatia in extra time. Spain thought they were home and hosted last time out against the Swiss as they held a 1-0 lead with 22 minutes remaining on the clock and in total control of the game until Xherdan Shaqiri stepped up and scored for his country.
Spain then suffered again in this game as Switzerland went down to 10 men having had Remo Freuler sent off in the 77th minute and Spain failed to capitalize with the one man advantage before being forced into extra time again. Although they were forced all the way into a penalty shootout having failed to capitalize on their one man advantage for the duration of extra time. The question is can Spain ride their luck again or has it been all used up?
Italy vs. Spain Prediction
We should be in for an amazing game here between Spain and Italy, both these teams have scored a total of 24 times between the two of them at this year’s tournaments. Both averaging the highest goals per game in this tournament. They also rank first and second in total attempts made per game, 21 and 19, respectively.
For us, the difference lies with these teams’ defenses. According to our soccer picks, Italy have kept 11 clean sheets in their previous 13 games, whilst Spain have only kept a clean sheet on five occasions in their previous 13 games. Italy’s defence has only given away two goals in this year’s tournament, compared to Spain’s five. When we consider only one of Italy’s was from open play and all of Spain were from open play, we can see a much bigger difference. Spain also gave up the bigger opportunities to their opposition, Italy didn’t give up many high scoring chances.
Italy will easily break this Spanish team in our eyes, even without the injured Leonardo Spinazzola. Italy’s style of play is much more diverse than its Spanish counterparts. On top of this, Spain seems to miss a lot of big opportunities, notoriously from the striker, Alvaro Morata. Morata has an xG of 4.38 in this year’s tournament but has only netted two goals from eight shots on target. It’s the likes of this poor finishing, plus their shockingly lackluster defense that we can see Italy breeze past them, and we are loving the soccer odds on this Italian team to win this game in 90 minutes at odds of +150, we believe their true odds should be closer to +120.
Italy can play a whole range of styles, from solid in defense and parking the bus, to being creative and attacking with flair from all angles, and a whole host of players getting shots and not just the same two or three. If Italy really wanted, they could probably win this game 3-0 / 4-1, but they won’t look to do that here as they will look to conserve energy for the final should they get into the lead and a 2-0 / 2-1 scoreline might be a more realistic prediction.
Euro 2020 Tip: Italy to Win at +150 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.