Get set for the NFL playoffs with this handy guide on how to bet postseason games effectively.
The NFL is America’s most popular sport and betting on NFL games is an exhilarating pastime that is fast making tracks around the world. So intertwined is the NFL with the sports betting industry that NFL betting is an appealing way for fans to participate in the sport and get front-row seats (figuratively) on the action.
What makes NFL betting unique is the compactness of the season. From the regular season – that will for the first time this year feature a 17-game schedule (one more than previous seasons) spanning 18 weeks (for a total of 272 games overall) – to the postseason that’s comprised of four rounds and has 14 teams (7 from each conference) competing to advance to the Super Bowl – it’s one of the shortest seasons of any sport. Hence, bettors only have so much to sink their teeth into.
Learning therefore how to maximise the potential at the sports betting exchange is key for a successful experience when betting on the NFL. Clearly, regular season games make up the bulk of the total games in a given season while postseason games represent just a fraction. Handicapping regular season and postseason games however can differ remarkably, especially where the latter is concerned because the matchups are more nuanced.
In this space, we focus on playoff games and how to bet those effectively. The first important distinction between regular and postseason games is the sudden death aspect of the NFL playoffs. Every game is a must-win game if teams hope to advance through the rounds. That puts a significant amount of pressure on both teams and that’s where home advantage can prove deciding. So, one of the first questions when considering betting on a playoff game is how significant is home advantage in the matchup.
Home advantage in the playoffs can be a huge deciding factor, especially with franchises that boast strong fanbases and stadiums where the atmosphere can be daunting and deafening at the same time. For example, Arrowhead Stadium, the home of the Kansas City Chiefs, is one of the loudest stadiums in the league. As well, CenturyLink Field where the Seattle Seahawks play is notorious for the so-called 12th man (i.e., crowd). Both these stadiums are intimidating for opponents and winning games on the road in these stadiums is a tall ask.
Of course, there are other factors that factor into the equation on the relevance of home advantage. These considerations include whether a) there is a rivalry between the teams involved that is of any consequence; b) how frequently do the teams in the matchup involve make the playoffs; c) are there weather conditions that could have an impact either way; and d) how do the teams stack up against each other on paper.
Another aspect of playoff games is seeding which essentially decides how matchups are set. So, the second main question to consider before making NFL bets is how much stock does seeding account for?
Seeding should be taken with a grain of salt in most occasions. It’s not the be all end all of the postseason. Consider the first four seeds in any conference are awarded to division winners and then the three remaining seeds are awarded to the best second-placed teams in the league. If the division for whatever reason isn’t any good in a particular year, it’s possible to have a team with less wins seeded higher than a team with more wins.
Indeed, that was the case in 2020 when the Washington Football Team clinched the NFC East with a 7-9-0 SU record. The NFC East was awful to put it mildly, but somebody had to win it. Washington seized the opportunity and as a result they clinched the No.4 seed, which put them ahead of the No.5 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5-0), who eventually went on to win Super Bowl 55. As well, Washington was seeded better than the Los Angeles Rams (10-6-0 SU) and Chicago Bears (8-8-0).
Seeding is simply a way for the league to allocate teams in the playoffs and it’s not necessarily a representation of team’s chances in the playoffs. Put simply, if being the top seed was a real advantage then top seeds would win Super Bowl each and every time.
It’s often said that the best team in the playoffs wins. Often there’s a difference between the best team in terms of record on the season and the best team on the actual day. It’s not easy predicting which is going to be which particularly deep into the playoffs, but with some due diligence and analysis there’s a myriad of stats and trends that bettors can pour over to help with the decision. As well, scores of intangibles are on hand that could prove the difference maker with a little bit of effort and research.
Finally, there’s a lot of hype and buzz that precedes playoff games, not to mention media narrative that plays a role in building up certain matchups. It’s important when betting on the NFL during the playoffs that bettors keep an open mind and never base NFL picks purely on the brouhaha that surrounds a particular matchup. TV broadcasters are in the business of hyping up matchups for TV ratings and not for any betting purpose.
Additionally, it’s important to avoid the trap of following the public. The public doesn’t always get it right. In fact, often the public can bet up or down a matchup significantly depending on which way they’re betting. As a sound football handicapper, you need to consider the impact of both media buzz and public betting on how the markets move. If you aren’t considering how the two are reacting to the matchup then you are likely to have an inaccurate picture of where the value lies in the game.