Heat vs. Cavaliers Top Picks for Tuesday: Jimmy Butler’s Status Is Key (Archive)
NBA Pick: Heat +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Miami Heat are listing All-Star guard Jimmy Butler as questionable for Tuesday’s game at the Cleveland Cavaliers and that’s obviously important. Which side of the 5.5-point spread has the best value at the best sportsbooks? We also have a total play for your NBA picks.
For Miami residents looking to bet on this game, you can do it at our top Florida betting sites.
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tuesday, January 31, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse
Game Preview
It’s a potential Eastern Conference playoff preview on Tuesday with Miami visiting Cleveland, but no national TV. The Cavs are currently fifth in the East and the Heat sixth, so they wouldn’t meet in the first round but there’s a lot of action left to where I could see this being a 4 vs. 5 first-round matchups perhaps.
Tuesday is the second of four regular-season meetings. On Nov. 20 in Cleveland, the Cavs were 7-point favorites on the NBA odds and won 113-87. Cleveland used a 21-2 run in the second quarter to open a 19-point lead, and the Cavs pushed their advantage to 31 in the third and that was that. Darius Garland had 25 points, while fellow All-Star Donovan Mitchell was held to just 13. Cedi Osman had 20 points off the bench. He only averages 9.3 ppg on the year.
The Heat was without starters Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro and top reserve/occasional starter Gabe Vincent. Kyle Lowry was just 2-for-10 for nine points and five turnovers.
Miami still leads the all-time regular season series 74-49 but is 26-35 as the road team. The Heat are 12-5 ATS in the past 17 meetings overall.
Heat Likes to Cheat On Injuries
At this point, it’s frankly hard to trust anything the Heat does in regard to reporting injuries. All-Star Jimmy Butler was a late scratch for last Tuesday’s victory over the Celtics due to lower back tightness, and he was not previously listed on the team’s injury report so it led to a $25,000 fine. It was the second time the NBA fined the Heat $25K for something like that this season. After the first one, Miami made a mockery of it by listing every player on the injury report for a few games.
Butler and Gabe Vincent are both listed as questionable Tuesday. Butler will certainly be named an All-Star again as he’s averaging 21.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists while shooting 52.6% from the field and playing his usual terrific defense. Max Strus likely would start if Butler can’t play. Major downgrade as Strus averages 12.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists and shoots only 40% from the field.
Vincent is a solid reserve averaging 9.5 ppg. Backup big man Omer Yurtseven (left ankle surgery) hasn’t played yet this season but says he is fully healed and is hoping to play after the All-Star break.
I tend to think Butler and Vincent both play as they did Sunday when the Heat were upset 122-117 in Charlotte. Butler was great with 28 points, seven rebounds, and three steals. Miami outscored the Hornets by five points with him on the court. Vincent had eight points off the bench.
Now, if Butler does not play, I'll back the Cavs against the spread at -5.5 because he's crucial for the Heat's offense.
Will Miami Make It up Tonight?
Among the Heat’s 51 games this season, 26 of them have been decided by five points or less. This one has a good chance of falling into that category as well if Butler plays. Miami should come out quite motivated after that terrible loss Sunday to start a four-game trip.
Bam Adebayo said that Monday’s practice in Cleveland was productive and that he and his teammates recalibrated and that everybody is “getting on the same page and smoothing things out".
The Heat are 6-2 ATS on the NBA odds in their past eight vs. teams with a winning record.
Cavs Should Get Love Back
Cleveland should have all hands on deck for this one as the only notable player on the injury report is Sixth Man of the Year candidate Kevin Love, and he’s probable. Love (lower back spasms) participated in practice on Monday after missing the past three games.
Partly because of injuries and maybe simply a little boredom, the Cavs haven’t won back-to-back games since early this month but come off a 122-99 home blowout of the Clippers on Sunday. That score is misleading because it was basically the JV team for Los Angeles with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George among those sitting out. The Cavaliers never trailed and took their largest lead of the season at 82-42 on Jarrett Allen’s first three-pointer since Nov. 5, 2021. The Cavs have 21 wins by at least 10 points, the most in the NBA.
Because it was such a rout, the Cleveland starters didn’t play heavy minutes. Donovan Mitchell had 11 points in 20 minutes in his return after missing three games with a strained groin. Cedi Osman tied his career high with 29 points and matched the franchise record by making all seven of his three-pointers. Osman was just the third player in franchise history to go 7-for-7 or better from deep, joining Kyrie Irving and Mo Williams.
At 21-5, Cleveland is off to its best home start since also starting 21-5 in the 2016-17 campaign. Thanks to their twin towers of Allen and Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers have held teams to under 100 points an NBA-best 16 times this season. They rank No. 1 in points allowed (106.9 ppg) and defensive rating (109.7).
If this goes to OT, that apparently bodes well for the home team as Cleveland is 6-0 in OT games, the most overtime wins in a single season in franchise history and most by any NBA team this year. Dating back to last season, Cleveland has won eight straight OT games. Not sure what the league record is.
Final Picks
The Cavs are 1-6 ATS in their past seven after a win. Again, if Butler plays, I’m taking Miami plus the points but won’t if he’s not. With Cleveland No. 1 in defensive rating and Miami No. 5, we normally would go under but the total is way too small.
NBA Pick: Heat +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
NBA Pick: Over 209 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.