Giants ML(+125)
Giants vs. Dodgers Free MLB Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
Things aren’t looking great for the Dodgers. They lack that same punch they had a year ago, when they won the World Series in convincing fashion, and they continue to deal with injuries. Despite all of that, L.A. is right in striking distance in the NL West and will have its sights set on the first-place Giants as the two open up a three-game set as the second half continues to roll on. Is there any value left in the Dodgers, or is it time to hop on the Giants? Here’s where you should be looking at the top-rated sportsbooks.
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, July 19, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Kevin Gausman Is Underrated
We’ve now settled in after the league’s crackdown on foreign substances, and we can say with confidence that some of the league’s dominant arms aren’t quite what they used to be. That’s not a statement that rings true about Kevin Gausman. The Giants righty has seen his spin rates remain steady throughout the season and carries a sparkling 1.73 ERA into this start.
Gausman ranks in the top nine percent of baseball with a 2.79 expected ERA according to Statcast, and he’s allowed just a .259 xwOBA on contact. His strikeouts are up at a lofty 30.5% rate, and he’s kept walks relatively low at 6.9%. Simply put, there is no way to beat this guy. He’s making it very difficult to make contact, and when you do put the bat on the ball your chances of getting a hit are slim, according to the metrics.
The Giants hurler is also a guy who’s gotten the job done against the Dodgers in the past. He’s allowed three earned runs on five hits and five walks over two starts — spanning 11 innings — with 11 strikeouts. The five walks all came in his last outing, though, and that will be a crucial number to watch as the game unfolds. The Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball at drawing walks, and it is how they’re able to break the game open lots of times.
Finally, I should mention the Giants are 12th in wRC+ over the past two weeks, doing well to pretty much-keeping pace with the ridiculous start they had. They’ve walked at an 11.1% clip and have posted a .149 ISO. Take it into consideration for your MLB picks.
Can the Dodgers Stand Up to This Test?
The Dodgers have won five of seven games, but they’ve yet to really be tested. A win over the Marlins, two against the Diamondbacks and two against the Rockies isn’t really a lot to write home about. They’re about to have their hands full with the Giants, and if that’s not enough they’re now dealing with some injury issues.
Mookie Betts went down with a hip injury on Sunday, and Gavin Lux picked up a hamstring injury. That puts their status for Monday in question, and without the two this offense is going to look even grimmer. Already without Corey Seager, the Dodgers will probably slide Chris Taylor over to shortstop with Max Muncy or Austin Barnes playing second. That will probably take Albert Pujols off the bench or Matt Beaty. You never want to be down good bands against a pitcher like Kevin Gausman.
Another concern I have for the Dodgers. and our MLB odds is their walk rate, which has plummeted to 8.5% over the past two weeks. Walks are the lifeblood of this team, which can clobber homers like no one’s business, but without runners, on base those solo shots are almost empty calories. Still, L.A. is pumping a 140 wRC+ over the last two weeks which is third in baseball.
I think the signs are there that the Dodgers are ready to crack in the face of some good competition, and I like Gausman’s ability to shut down this lineup. Tony Gonsolin is a regression candidate with a 13.9% walk rate and an xERA almost a run higher than his real-life 2.13 ERA. With the Giants’ improvement in the walk department, this could be a long day at the office for Gonsolin, who won’t have a ton of offense to back him up.
MLB Pick: Giants ML (+125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.