Fresno State vs. Colorado State NCAA Basketball Betting Analysis and Free Pick (Archive)
The top two players in the Mountain West face each other on Friday night in Fort Collins as two teams looking to add to their NCAA resumes play for the only time in the regular season.
Colorado State has won two straight and is 18-3, 8-3 in the conference, in third place, a game and a half out of first. Fresno State has split its last six games and is in fifth, a game and a half behind the Rams, at 16-7, 6-4. Here’s a breakdown of the NCAAB odds for tonight’s matchup.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Colorado State Rams
Friday, February 11, 2022 – 09:30 PM EST at Moby Arena
The feast-or-famine Mountain West schedule has affected both teams. The Rams are playing at home for the only time in a five-game stretch that started with Tuesday’s 10-point win over Nevada. Fresno is on the road for the only time in five games, a stretch that started with a win over Nevada a week ago and also includes Sunday’s two-point loss to first-place Wyoming.
The only two Mountain West players to make the Midseason Team for the Naismith National Player of the Year Award will both be on the floor. Fresno is led by Orlando Robinson, while Colorado State relies on David Roddy.
Time for a Run
Fresno State is currently off the NCAA radar, according to bracketologists, but this is the portion of the schedule when the Bulldogs can change that. They will be favored in their next four games, three of them at home, so a win as a slight road dog at Colorado State can help spark a late-season run.
This will be a Quadrant I game for the Bulldogs, who are 0-3 in Quad I games this year. With road games at San Diego State and Wyoming to close the year, Fresno can even its record against the top competition, which would help earn some attention from the selection committee.
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Robinson is averaging 18.7 ppg and 8.3 rebounds and is ranked fifth in the KenPom analytics Player of the Year standings. He’s also second on the team with 2.8 assists. The 7-foot junior has also improved his defense, averaging 1.3 blocks per game. He’s also one of four Bulldogs averaging a steal a game.
While Robinson provides an inside presence, six-foot junior Isaiah Hill is running the show from outside. Hill leads the team in assists and is the only other Fresno player scoring in double figures. He poured in 25 points in the near-upset of Wyoming.
Missing Size Inside
Colorado State is currently projected to get a No. 9 seed in the tournament by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. The Rams would like to improve their position with a strong finish to the year. They face three straight road games after Friday’s game and will likely be the underdogs in two of them, making Friday a near must-win to keep on pace.
The top six players in the Rams’ rotation include four juniors and two seniors, so their experience should at least match the upperclassmen laded Fresno team.
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Colorado State is led by junior power forward Roddy, who averages 19.2 ppg and 7.8 rebounds and is second on the team with 3.0 assists. He is tied for the team lead with 1.2 steals and also blocks a shot a game. Junior point guard Isaiah Stevens is second on the team with 15.5 ppg and leads the way with 5.0 assists.
The Pick
The game matches excellent guard and big men on both sides and is a critical game in the postseason hopes for both. Each team is good at protecting the ball. CSU is No. 17 in the nation in turnover rate, and Fresno set a school record with just two turnovers in its last game, against Wyoming.
It will likely come down to a clash of styles. Fresno plays one of the slowest tempos in the nation. At No. 356, only North Texas and Virginia go slower. That’s a big reason why all seven losses have come by 10 points or fewer. It may not help Fresno topple the Rams on the road, but it should keep things within an unusually large spread for your NCAAB picks tonight.
NCAAB Pick: Fresno State +6 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.