Editors’ Picks for UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje (Archive)
Well, hello there my fellow bettors! Have you ever come up with a betting angle that is so good that it happens before expected? That’s how I feel after going with a “fight won’t go the distance” best bet in the Taira vs. Candelario bout for last week’s article and the fight getting scratched.
Oh well, such is life… so we move on to this week’s super-stacked UFC 274 event headlined by two title bouts.
First off, Rose “Thug” Namajunas will defend her belt in the Strawweight category against Carla Esparza. This amazing matchup will be followed by the title bout between Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira, as the Brazilian fighter will look to prove why he’s the Lightweight champ.
So, as you can tell, the crew has the work cut out so let’s get into some UFC odds and try to improve the 1-3-1 (push/no action) from last week. In the spirit of the Kentucky Derby, giddy up!
Danny Roberts vs. Francisco Trinaldo
UFC Welterweight Bout
Saturday, May 07, 2022 - 09:10 PM EDT at Footprint Center
For our purposes, the evening begins on the prelim card with the fight between Danny Roberts and Francisco Trinaldo, as Dave is taking a special interest in his countryman's bout for this week's article. For him, this is a perfect value hunting opportunity with the London boxer being one of the most underrated competitors during his six-year tenure in the UFC. Let's allow the expert to elaborate.
Dave's Best Bet for UFC 274
"The Englishman is a southpaw with lightning-quick hand speed; to meet his hands is a reactive speed that can read takedowns but also quickly return to his feet. With the cardio and technical striking attributes matching Roberts's speed, he's a dangerous outing for anybody competing at 170lbs.
"Sleek striking with beautiful head movement and the ability to read striking situations are just a handful of Roberts' fundamental offensive assets. His wrestling is underrated, and nobody expected the Brit to defeat Ramazan Emeev with odds of +250, but his skills were overlooked per usual.
More Picks: UFC 274 | Hot Prospect of the Week: Danny Roberts
"Francisco Trinaldo (27-8-0) is a veteran UFC fighter aged 42-years-old who's notably 4-1 in his previous five fights. However, moving up a weight class to meet the defensive grappling skill level of Danny Roberts isn't going to be farewell for the Brazilian.
"The top-rated sportsbooks' opening line has placed this fight with pick 'em odds, and I'll gladly side with my fellow Brit to once again prove the doubters wrong.
"I genuinely believe Roberts is coming into his own. If we put the skillsets aside, Trinaldo is an aging lightweight moving up a weight class while surrendering a significant size discrepancy to an exceptionally well-rounded competitor. For the reasons above, invest in Danny Roberts to win with your UFC picks." Dave Manyun
Dave's UFC 274 Pick: Danny Roberts to Win (-110) [1.10u returns 1u] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza
UFC Women’s Strawweight Co-Main Event Title Bout
Saturday, May 07, 2022 – 11:40 PM EDT at Footprint Center
For the co-main event between Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza, we have three different picks and the first one contradicts the last two so, for this fight, you'll be getting the most holistic preview that we've had so far in this column. Basically, the editor's version of the octagon so we hope you enjoy the show!
With a rematch that's been seven years in the making, don't fault us for jumping on this matchup as we should be in store for a great performance from both Esparza and Namajunas, and just like the public is torn apart between these two. Back in 2014, these American fighters settle the first-ever women's UFC strawweight title fight with Esparza earning the belt with a submission early in the third round.
Ed's Best Bet for UFC 274
"Carla Esparza’s five-fight winning streak has seen her get a shot at the UFC Women’s strawweight championship against Rose Namajunas, who she submitted in The Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale on December 12, 2014. That said, this is a very different version of Rose and she is more than capable of taking down Esparza.
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"Rose’s striking has improved a lot since their first fight and while she tends to fight better when everything is against her, motivation won’t be a problem on Saturday because of her previous history with Esparza. All four high-profile rematches of Rose’s career and nine of Esparza’s last 11 fights went the distance." Ed Solano
Ed's UFC 274 Pick: Rose Namajunas to Win by Points (+170) [1u returns 1.7u] at BetOnline
Matts's Best Bet for UFC 274
"In this edition of 'Will Matt get it right' we go to the co-main event for the strawweight title gives us a chance to witness one of the sport’s most dominant champions throwdown against a challenger in Esparza who since April of 2019 has won five straight fights over quality opponents.
"Heading into this Saturday night, the smart money is on Namajunas but we need to dig into the weeds just a bit since the best UFC pick for this fight comes in the under 4 ½ rounds" Matt Ryan
Matt's UFC 274 Pick: Namajunas/Esparza Under 4 ½ Rounds (+150) [1u returns 1.5u] at BetOnline
Ricky's Best Bet for UFC 274
As for me, I got to agree with my colleague Ed as I believe that this bout will be decided by the judges' scorecards. Having said that, I don't want to take any chances as I look to get out of the hole I got myself into (although I still blame Pichel's mustache game for most of it).
More Picks: UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Lock on the Card
Truth of the matter is that, while Namajunas holds a perfect record in her rematch fights, Esparza knows what it takes to get the W. That's why I'm taking the easy way out and, for a change, saying that this bout will go the distance. As soon as that bell hits, we cash regardless of who wins. Also, most of the public is on the under...
Ricky's UFC 274 Pick: Fight Will Go the Distance - Yes (-160) [3.20u returns 2u] at BetOnline
Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje
UFC Lightweight Main Event Title Bout
Saturday, May 07, 2022 – 11:59 PM EDT at Footprint Center
Last but not least, we feature the main event of this great UFC 274 card. Le is very excited for Saturday and has come up with several picks so make sure to look for them. Pro tip: Check out the link below!
But her favorite bet for this Saturday is in the Oliveira vs. Gaethje fight as the Lightweight title bout should be a great one with the 32-year-old Brazilian looking to defend his title against one of the most entertaining fighters in the UFC roster.
More Picks: UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Best Bets
Oliveira is known for having the record of most submission wins in UFC history with a grand total of 15 (stats via Dave Manyun!) while the All-American college wrestler has finished 19 of his 26 professional fights either with a knockout or a technical stoppage.
Le's Best Bet For UFC 274
"It does make sense to me as to why the Champ is favored in this matchup; he has been riding a 10-fight win streak since 2018 and has only seen the scorecards once out of all of those. Oliveira’s path to victory would be on the ground against Gaethje. However, I think this part will be interesting. Gaethje has a very tough takedown defense and can make this difficult for Oliveria to have it his way.
"If the fight does make it to the ground, Gaethje has much experience in wrestling and could defend himself against the Champ. Gaethje is overall an animal. He is completely durable, and his striking is incredibly powerful.
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"Gaethje’s overall skill sets between his takedown defense, durability, endurance, and overall strength will put Oliveira to the test, and I think he will sadly lose his belt making Justin Gaethje the new UFC lightweight champion." Le Martin
Le's UFC 274 Pick: Justin Gaethje to Win ML (+150) [1u returns 1.5u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.