After one of the wildest games, you’ll ever see in today’s Major League Baseball, the Dodgers and Padres will do it again just 18 hours after the final out was recorded in Wednesday’s game. Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish will meet in what could very easily be another pitcher’s duel at PETCO Park, but as we saw on Wednesday that doesn’t mean the under will always hit.
The MLB odds are once again similar on Thursday, too, with the Dodgers heading in as short road favorites with the slight upper hand in the pitching department.
Thursday, August 26, 2021 – 09:10 PM EDT at PETCO Park
How much is truly between these teams? Can we pick out a winner here, or should we target the total? Without further ado, let’s take a look into how you should be wagering over at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Dodgers fans everywhere know exactly what time it is when L.A. is forced to face a lefty: It’s time for pain. Blake Snell shut down these bats for nearly eight innings on Wednesday night before the Dodgers were finally able to get to the right-handers in the Padres bullpen and come away with a 5-3 win in 16 innings.
So, the Dodgers and all their fans will breathe a momentary sigh of relief when they see a right-hander opposing Scherzer in this one. Though, the celebratory mood could quickly be dampened when they see it’s their old friend Yu Darvish. Though he’s struggled lately, he’s dominated the Dodgers on more than one occasion this year and may just turn it on for this matchup.
Over the past two weeks, the Dodgers haven’t been all that inspiring at the plate with a 91 wRC+. It’s been pretty brutal considering L.A. looked lackluster all year but still managed to post better numbers than this, and a walk rate of 9.2% is of particular concern given how much prowess the Dodgers have had in that area for multiple seasons.
Another factor here is that the Dodgers had every position player on the field Wednesday play every single one of the 16 innings, the first time it’s happened since 1973. On that occasion, the Dodgers played a 19-inning game against the Mets. Fatigue should be an issue.
Speaking of issues, Yu Darvish has a lot of them at the moment. He posted a 7.36 ERA in the month of July before turning around and pitching to a 6.52 ERA in August.
He’s taken the league’s crackdown on foreign substances harder than anyone, seeing a big dip in his spin rates and looking like a completely different pitcher after late June, when the news came out.
Darvish has proven capable of striking out hitters in bunches since then. Nonetheless, considering those hitters played for the Phillies, Rockies and Diamondbacks it’s not all that impressive. The punchouts in those games also came with many runs and, dating back to the start of July, the gopher ball has been a big issue.
Darvish has allowed a homer in every start since taking the hill on July 3, totaling 11 over that span. It’s a simply staggering number and one which seems to jive with his season-long 7.5% barrel rate. There’s evidence that this is just an unlucky number of fly balls turning into homers, but the number of bad starts at this point is turning into a very troubling trend.
The Dodgers are a team that, even at their lowest, over these last two weeks, still has a decent .190 ISO. Los Angeles may lack the ability to hit the ball consistently, but they have an encouraging track record when it comes to home runs. Because of this, the matchup couldn’t be worse here for the Padres.
On the other side of the coin, Max Scherzer continues to dominate with a 2.11 ERA this month and will run into an offense that’s in a serious slump in the Padres. I think this is a pretty good deal on the better offense in a favorable matchup with the better pitcher.
For my MLB pick, I will be laying the price.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-131) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.