LAC-UTA O/112 1H(-110)
Clippers vs. Jazz NBA Playoffs Game 1 Expert Betting Analysis and Pick (Archive)
The Clippers and Jazz hook up to start a best of seven series against one another tonight in Salt Lake City. Will the Jazz continue to roll, or have the Clippers figured out their rotations enough to stymie the Jazz defense?
LA Clippers vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, June 08, 2021 – 10:00 PM EDT at Vivint Smart Home Arena
First Half Offense
These two teams both had tough first round matchups against scrappy young teams with a budding superstar. They had to play out of their comfort zones a little at times, but obviously, the Clippers had the tougher road to the second round after being taken to seven games by the Mavs.
LA showed their road prowess in round one unlike any other team. Not until Game 7 did the home team win a game, so while the Clippers were pretty inconsistent on the road during the regular season, they have shown a ton of grit as the road team through three playoff games away from home. Through three road playoff games, LA ranks 5th in ORtg and 1st in DRtg in the postseason.
Another big reason the Clippers are where they are is their adjustments on offense in round one, which I’m assuming will continue some here in the second round.
While the Clippers will need Ivica Zubac a lot more against Rudy Gobert, Ty Lue would be wise to keep getting guys like Terrance Mann, Luke Kennard and Reggie Jackson minutes while playing small ball.
Going small was one of the main reasons the Clippers had success against the Mavs and while that will be a much taller (no pun intended) task against the Jazz, playing small and leaning more towards offense is almost a guarantee for LA here.
No one has proven they can slow down the Jazz offense. LA gave up 112 and 114 to them in their last two games against Utah and in their first meeting, the game was played on New Year’s Day. I throw that out entirely because of how wonky those games usually are.
If the Clippers are forced to play catch up early in this game and have to go small, or lean more towards an offensive lineup out of necessity, this pace is going to go up for both teams and I hope the scoring will too.
The Sharp Pick
So far Utah has been a perfect 5-0 cashing the over in the playoffs, but the Clippers are both better defensively than the Grizzlies and they play at a much slower pace.
That being said, the Clippers’ only chance against the Jazz may be playing faster and smaller.
The LA defense is good, but if their first round series proved anything, it’s that they need to play a little faster and smaller if they want to have a more diverse and efficient offense. They need floor stretching and with Serge Ibaka still hurt, the only way they can do that is by playing Marcus Morris at center.
I do expect the Clippers to go back to Zubac more in this series, but if he is getting barbequed by Gobert or is generally ineffective on offense or pick and roll defense, LA will almost surely go small more. I’m hoping they just stay small and start the same lineup they did in Game 7 against the Mavs.
If that happens, the first half over on the NBA odds has a ton of value. This will lead to their defense suffering, but it will also lead to their offense being much tougher to stop, even for Utah. Small ball will pull Gobert away from the basket and get open driving lanes and/or open perimeter shots.
I like the play even if Zubac is back to starting lineup for LA, but I love it if they have the same lineup as Game 7 against Dallas.
My Pick: OVER 112 1st Half (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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