The NBA season is finally upon us and after the appetizer slate of two games on Tuesday night, Wednesday brings 11 games including an Eastern Conference showdown between Boston vs. New York. Let’s see the NBA odds.
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden
The Celtics are coming into the year looking like a team that could be a huge ATS value for bettors after underperforming at times over the last few seasons. However, the Celtics got some unpleasant news with Jaylen Brown going on the Covid list. Take this into consideration for your NBA picks.
With Al Horford already ruled out for the opener on Wednesday, the big question is whether or not Boston will have one of their superstars on the court. Officially questionable, if Brown can’t play, that does a few things to this game. It automatically gives some value to the Knicks, a team that is also dealing with an injury to Nerlens Noel. However, the play that would have more value than New York, in my eyes, is the under.
It was pretty well documented last season that the Knicks were the slowest-paced team in the league under Tom Thibodeau. That won’t change here at home, a place where the Knicks played even slower. Boston should have no problem playing at the reduced pace.
The Celtics ranked in the lower third of the league in pace last season, so with the added potential of one of Boston’s stars being out, I’m getting ahead of this one and betting the under at 218.5. After going up some, I’m already seeing it start to dip back down to the 217 at some shops and I expect it to be no more than 216 by the time this one tops off on ESPN Wednesday night, especially if Brown is out.
Another big factor why I like this play is that it’s opening night and these two are staunch divisional rivals. They are both likely to be chasing the Nets all season, so getting out in front of the other one on opening night will definitely be on the minds of both teams.
Add in the defensive intensity that the opening night will bring and hopefully some guys are a little too juiced up on offense that they shoot long on their first couple attempts and that’s probably a cashing ticket for us. At the pace I expect this game to be played at, that will be all it takes for the under to hit for us.
These two played one another at a pace of 95.8 in three games last season and even if this time around is a few possessions faster, I still think the combined defense and adrenaline factor for both clubs will play towards the under. Even if Brown plays, he has been out for a while this preseason and his minutes likely won’t be completely full and his conditioning could be a factor as well. He might be limited on offense some, but I expect his defense to still play a factor here if he suits up.
NBA Pick: Under 218 (-115) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.